Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Company Ltd / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 38 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Chinachem's Offer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enm-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16267:1" rel="noopener">Enm Holdings (128 HK)</a>; Bain's non-binding Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chindata-group-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29274:1" rel="noopener">Chindata Group (CD US)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yitai-coal-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14904:1" rel="noopener">Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Company Ltd (3948 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/challenger-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16490:1" rel="noopener">Challenger Technologies (CHLG SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 38 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Chinachem's Offer Enm Holdings (128 HK); Bain's non-binding Offer for Chindata Group (CD US).
Key updates took place for Estia Health (EHE AU), Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Company Ltd (3948 HK), and Challenger Technologies (CHLG SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: ENM, Estia Health, Yitai Coal, and Challenger Technologies

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> Board now recommends shareholders accept Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)’s pre-conditional tender offer of JPY4,620 per share. The Board also effectively rules out a bump.</li>
<li>The Board unconvincingly recommends the offer in part on the premise that the IFA’s DCF valuation is unrealistic due to punchy forecasts and positive feedback from stakeholders.  </li>
<li>The Board fails to consider that the peers have materially re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers’ multiples.</li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) Board now recommends shareholders accept Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)’s pre-conditional tender offer of JPY4,620 per share. The Board also effectively rules out a bump.
The Board unconvincingly recommends the offer in part on the premise that the IFA’s DCF valuation is unrealistic due to punchy forecasts and positive feedback from stakeholders.  
The Board fails to consider that the peers have materially re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers’ multiples.


Toshiba (6502 JP): Risk/Reward as Board Unconvincingly Recommends JIP’s Offer

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>In March, when the JIP Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> was announced, the Toshiba Board supported the Offer but declined, at the time, to recommend it to shareholders. </li>
<li>
"[The price] has clearly not reached the level at which it is possible to recommend to general shareholders that they tender their shares at this time." That was then.</li>
<li>10 weeks later and the Board has a Revised Opinion. It has recommended the Offer for reasons which smack of resignation rather than appropriate deliberation. Investors beware.</li>
</ul>


In March, when the JIP Offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) was announced, the Toshiba Board supported the Offer but declined, at the time, to recommend it to shareholders. 

"[The price] has clearly not reached the level at which it is possible to recommend to general shareholders that they tender their shares at this time." That was then.
10 weeks later and the Board has a Revised Opinion. It has recommended the Offer for reasons which smack of resignation rather than appropriate deliberation. Investors beware.


Toshiba's Board Buckles Under - As Things Stand, Board Supports and Recommends JIP Offer

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Toshiba announced today that its board had shifted stance on JIP’s upcoming tender and would recommend shareholders tender. </li>
<li>The special committee will review its opinion on the tender offer and based on that the company will offer another opinion when the tender commences. </li>
<li>Despite peers rising 13-30% since April an offer price increase still looks unlikely.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba announced today that its board had shifted stance on JIP’s upcoming tender and would recommend shareholders tender. 
The special committee will review its opinion on the tender offer and based on that the company will offer another opinion when the tender commences. 
Despite peers rising 13-30% since April an offer price increase still looks unlikely.


<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 review has 2 months left of data collection. That means the rankings are quasi-fixed. So then the question is what to do with them.</li>
<li>There is a <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en/nkave/governance" target="_blank" rel="noopener">consultation</a> in progress. You still have one week to respond, but that doesn't change the names. </li>
<li>The top inclusion is the big one in dollar terms but low in liquidity. The next two are likely to be consumer names, and much more impactful. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 review has 2 months left of data collection. That means the rankings are quasi-fixed. So then the question is what to do with them.
There is a consultation in progress. You still have one week to respond, but that doesn't change the names. 
The top inclusion is the big one in dollar terms but low in liquidity. The next two are likely to be consumer names, and much more impactful. 


Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Review - Still Fastie, Nitori, Zozo, and Lasertec as Interesting Names

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: ENM, Estia Health, Yitai Coal, and Challenger Technologies

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Toshiba (6502 JP): Risk/Reward as Board Unconvincingly Recommends JIP’s Offer

Peers have materially re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers’...

Arun George

Toshiba's Board Buckles Under - As Things Stand, Board Supports and Recommends JIP Offer

In March, Toshiba's Board said they could not recommend JIP's price. 10 weeks later, Peers are up, Toshiba fwd earnings f/casts are up vs peers,...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba – Tendering Now Recommended

Toshiba announced today that its board had shifted stance on JIP’s upcoming tender and would recommend shareholders tender. An offer price increase...

Mio Kato

Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Review - Still Fastie, Nitori, Zozo, and Lasertec as Interesting Names

The Nikkei 225 September 2023 review has two months left in the data set before it is set. It will be tough to change rankings now near the top....

Travis Lundy

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