Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many indexes (ACWI-US,ACWX-US,etc.) are near support, and we could see a bear market bounce, but until these indexes reverse their downtrends and break above resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.</li>
<li>On a positive note, we are starting to see signs that inflation is peaking, as commodity prices have pulled back substantially, and the Energy/Materials Sectors are under significant pressure.</li>
<li>If inflation and commodity prices have indeed peaked, global equities are likely in the early stages of a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>


Many indexes (ACWI-US,ACWX-US,etc.) are near support, and we could see a bear market bounce, but until these indexes reverse their downtrends and break above resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.
On a positive note, we are starting to see signs that inflation is peaking, as commodity prices have pulled back substantially, and the Energy/Materials Sectors are under significant pressure.
If inflation and commodity prices have indeed peaked, global equities are likely in the early stages of a bottoming process.


Inflation Peaking?; ACWI, ACWI Ex-US Near Support; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>An article this morning in the Yomiuri suggested JIC was bidding, even though they have not been in any "lists of 8 bidders" I have seen. The market yawned. </li>
<li>An article this evening says bidders are offering "up to ¥7,000/share" but there is a range of pricing and conditions. Not surprising, but we know little. </li>
<li>Shareholder structure matters. This has been event-y for a long time so I expect not many new buyers are ready to come in. This just shifts the range. And risk.</li>
</ul>


An article this morning in the Yomiuri suggested JIC was bidding, even though they have not been in any "lists of 8 bidders" I have seen. The market yawned. 
An article this evening says bidders are offering "up to ¥7,000/share" but there is a range of pricing and conditions. Not surprising, but we know little. 
Shareholder structure matters. This has been event-y for a long time so I expect not many new buyers are ready to come in. This just shifts the range. And risk.


Oops, Price Leaks Early on Toshiba - Now We Have To Think About Probability

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> sees its AGM next week with new directors and a possible privatisation process ongoing. But the AGM is a done deal and privatisation is not.</li>
<li>The event-i-ness of Toshiba keeps it "supported" while its better-valued and higher-growth peers fall harder in the face of recent overall market weakness. </li>
<li>Toshiba promised transparency on its privatisation process, and so far, it has delivered everything it promised. The next "transparency" likely comes in November. </li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) sees its AGM next week with new directors and a possible privatisation process ongoing. But the AGM is a done deal and privatisation is not.
The event-i-ness of Toshiba keeps it "supported" while its better-valued and higher-growth peers fall harder in the face of recent overall market weakness. 
Toshiba promised transparency on its privatisation process, and so far, it has delivered everything it promised. The next "transparency" likely comes in November. 


Toshiba (6502) Strong Vs Peers on No News Means Susceptible to Risk On Underperformance

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>Toshiba bull trend remains intact with buy support at 5,200/300 above the 5,000 bull/bear pivot. Macro PT remains at 6,500.</li>
<li>RSI buy support to gel with the price buy zone. Sell volumes on the pullback have been tepid in line with a correction.</li>
<li>5,000 breakout point is the bull/bear inflection point and the more aggressive buy zone (low odds of being met).</li>
</ul>


Toshiba bull trend remains intact with buy support at 5,200/300 above the 5,000 bull/bear pivot. Macro PT remains at 6,500.
RSI buy support to gel with the price buy zone. Sell volumes on the pullback have been tepid in line with a correction.
5,000 breakout point is the bull/bear inflection point and the more aggressive buy zone (low odds of being met).


Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Aaaaand staying public is apparently an option again according to <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/toshiba-ceo-says-staying-public-120000447.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CEO Shimada’s interview with Bloomberg</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB00370844665552474099904588590160168433692" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shimada has also said that he wants any buyer to keep Toshiba whole</a> limiting some of the levers a PE fund could potentially pull. </li>
<li>With the company’s EV/EBIT multiple of 13.7x now significantly above peers such as Hitachi’s 11.3x prospects for a hefty premium seem weak.</li>
</ul>


Aaaaand staying public is apparently an option again according to CEO Shimada’s interview with Bloomberg. 

Shimada has also said that he wants any buyer to keep Toshiba whole limiting some of the levers a PE fund could potentially pull. 
With the company’s EV/EBIT multiple of 13.7x now significantly above peers such as Hitachi’s 11.3x prospects for a hefty premium seem weak.


Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Inflation Peaking?; ACWI, ACWI Ex-US Near Support; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

We're starting to see signs that inflation is peaking, as commodity prices have pulled back substantially or are breaking, and the Energy $XLE and...

Vermilion Research

Oops, Price Leaks Early on Toshiba - Now We Have To Think About Probability

Toshiba (6502) gets the "bidders might pay up to X" article a lot earlier than I expected. It is non-binding now, and no due dili has been done....

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502) Strong Vs Peers on No News Means Susceptible to Risk On Underperformance

Weak earnings/forecasts and 3yr highs vs Peers make Toshiba's relative valuation un-compelling. Lack of near-term news means on a risk-on rebound,...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502) Fresh Buy Zone

Toshiba bull trend remains intact with buy support at 5,200/300 above the 5,000 bull/bear pivot. Macro PT remains at 6,500.

Thomas Schroeder

Toshiba – Push Me Pull Me

More worrying signs for the buyout probability on Toshiba as CEO Shimada says staying public is an option and says Toshiba should not be split up...

Mio Kato

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