Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Raymond Zage's letter was super interesting in terms of its nuance, as discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toshiba-board-ructions-as-independent-director-goes-rogue" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:67080" rel="noopener">Toshiba Board Ructions as Independent Director Goes Rogue</a>. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toshiba-coin-toss-is-neither-heads-nor-tails-as-both-proposals-fail" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:67405" rel="noopener">Toshiba Coin Toss Is Neither Heads Nor Tails as Both Proposals Fail</a>, I discussed that this opens the door to exploring combinations of ideas. </li>
<li>Today Effissimo filed an amended LSR to say they'd sell their shares to a Bain Tender Offer if launched. The statement, and the break clause are informative, and more nuanced.</li>
</ul>


Raymond Zage's letter was super interesting in terms of its nuance, as discussed in Toshiba Board Ructions as Independent Director Goes Rogue. 
In Toshiba Coin Toss Is Neither Heads Nor Tails as Both Proposals Fail, I discussed that this opens the door to exploring combinations of ideas. 
Today Effissimo filed an amended LSR to say they'd sell their shares to a Bain Tender Offer if launched. The statement, and the break clause are informative, and more nuanced.


Toshiba (6502) - Effissimo's Pledge Isn't One. It Is a Signalling Device.

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Toshiba possesses technologies of vital importance to Japan's economic competitiveness and national security: nuclear power, quantum cryptography and discrete semiconductors.</li>
<li>Any changes in ownership or management that would undermine or leak these technologies would probably not be tolerated.</li>
<li>LightStream's Mio Kato writes that Toshiba itself is attractive but the drama surrounding it is decidedly looking bad for business. He remains negative on the stock.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba possesses technologies of vital importance to Japan's economic competitiveness and national security: nuclear power, quantum cryptography and discrete semiconductors.
Any changes in ownership or management that would undermine or leak these technologies would probably not be tolerated.
LightStream's Mio Kato writes that Toshiba itself is attractive but the drama surrounding it is decidedly looking bad for business. He remains negative on the stock.


Toshiba (6502 JP): National Security Overrides the Interests of Speculators

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a>'s activists are stuck. So are management. 3+ years since the last big buyback, 3 new CEOs and we are back to the drawing board for both management/activists. </li>
<li>Quarz and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-north-asia-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5127:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP)</a> holders "win" to get a Cash-Only Consideration bump to 1.0x Price/Sep2021 NAV at S$1.1949/unit. This gets them out at NAV.</li>
<li>Regulatory overhang sees <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a>'s spread to terms trading wide. </li>
</ul>



Toshiba (6502 JP)'s activists are stuck. So are management. 3+ years since the last big buyback, 3 new CEOs and we are back to the drawing board for both management/activists. 
Quarz and Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP) holders "win" to get a Cash-Only Consideration bump to 1.0x Price/Sep2021 NAV at S$1.1949/unit. This gets them out at NAV.
Regulatory overhang sees Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)'s spread to terms trading wide. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Mapletree, Link Admin, Cayman's Headcount, Razer, Crown Resorts

<ul>
<li>A Nikkei article overnight displays the first buds of "spring" around Toshiba management's tilt towards trying to get shareholders what they want after the Separation Plan failed at the EGM.</li>
<li>The article doesn't say much, but it is a sign the Toshiba Board are not "lying flat."</li>
<li>However it doesn't mean a deal is coming much less anywhere near doable. This is a long road. But it encourages more proactive portfolio resconstruction. </li>
</ul>


A Nikkei article overnight displays the first buds of "spring" around Toshiba management's tilt towards trying to get shareholders what they want after the Separation Plan failed at the EGM.
The article doesn't say much, but it is a sign the Toshiba Board are not "lying flat."
However it doesn't mean a deal is coming much less anywhere near doable. This is a long road. But it encourages more proactive portfolio resconstruction. 


First News of Toshiba "Studying a Privatisation Plan"

<ul>
<li>Toshiba EGM fails to provide a positive result as both Toshiba's own Separation Plan and 3D Investment's proposal to enhance privatisation bidder engagement and transparency fail. </li>
<li>Activists are stuck. Management is too. 3+ years since the last big buyback and 3 new CEOs and we are back to the drawing board for both management and activists. </li>
<li>But both have a head start. The Shareholder Return Plan, eventual disposition of Kioxia, and non-core asset sales would be a start. And Raymond Zage's letter is worth a re-read.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba EGM fails to provide a positive result as both Toshiba's own Separation Plan and 3D Investment's proposal to enhance privatisation bidder engagement and transparency fail. 
Activists are stuck. Management is too. 3+ years since the last big buyback and 3 new CEOs and we are back to the drawing board for both management and activists. 
But both have a head start. The Shareholder Return Plan, eventual disposition of Kioxia, and non-core asset sales would be a start. And Raymond Zage's letter is worth a re-read.


Toshiba Coin Toss Is Neither Heads Nor Tails as Both Proposals Fail

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Toshiba (6502) - Effissimo's Pledge Isn't One. It Is a Signalling Device.

Effissimo filed a small LSR amendment.No change in sharecount. But the text indicated a pledge to support a Bain tender offer. It's a nuanced...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502 JP): National Security Overrides the Interests of Speculators

Toshiba possesses technologies vital to Japan's economic future and national security. Changes that would threaten these technologies are unlikely...

Scott Foster

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Mapletree, Link Admin, Cayman's Headcount, Razer, Crown Resorts

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

First News of Toshiba "Studying a Privatisation Plan"

The Toshiba EGM saw the Board's Separation Plan fail to receive approval yesterday. Something like 12 hours later and the Nikkei has an article...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba Coin Toss Is Neither Heads Nor Tails as Both Proposals Fail

Toshiba's EGM fails on both sides. Back to the drawing board. But both activists and management have near-term measures they can take. Toshiba has...

Travis Lundy

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