Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since Toshiba reported lacklustre earnings and guidance, there has been a steady flow of articles in the press about the privatisation process going on behind the scenes.</li>
<li>On 25 March, Toshiba let it be known a privatisation process would start. On 31 March, Bain gave notice it would participate. Toshiba has been in talks since 21 April</li>
<li>First round bids were due 30 May, and 10 total submissions were made, with 8 privatisation proposals proffered. Now we wait...</li>
</ul>


Since Toshiba reported lacklustre earnings and guidance, there has been a steady flow of articles in the press about the privatisation process going on behind the scenes.
On 25 March, Toshiba let it be known a privatisation process would start. On 31 March, Bain gave notice it would participate. Toshiba has been in talks since 21 April
First round bids were due 30 May, and 10 total submissions were made, with 8 privatisation proposals proffered. Now we wait...


Toshiba (6502) - Now We Have the First Rounds Bids In, And We Wait, But It's Top of Range

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Toshiba provided an update today on its management policy and the status of discussions with potential investors. </li>
<li>The management targets unveiled looked plausible but rather optimistic while the only real new information on the potential privatisation was that 8 bids had been submitted. </li>
<li>In the end the most interesting takeaway for us was that Toshiba Tec would play a key role in Toshiba’s data business.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba provided an update today on its management policy and the status of discussions with potential investors. 
The management targets unveiled looked plausible but rather optimistic while the only real new information on the potential privatisation was that 8 bids had been submitted. 
In the end the most interesting takeaway for us was that Toshiba Tec would play a key role in Toshiba’s data business.


Toshiba – Key Takeaway Is Toshiba Tec’s Attractiveness

<ul>
<li>Toshiba announces <em>meh-to-weak</em> earnings and <em>surprisingly conservative</em> revenue guidance for next year given better order books and backlog and much higher USD/yen.</li>
<li>The company announced a slightly higher March 2022 dividend (giving money to past shareholders) and a big special dividend and higher March 2023 dividend.</li>
<li>The Privatisation Proposal Process continues. It may get a result, or not. New director choices will wait. Now we start a quiet period where privatisation news competes with analyst bearishness.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba announces meh-to-weak earnings and surprisingly conservative revenue guidance for next year given better order books and backlog and much higher USD/yen.
The company announced a slightly higher March 2022 dividend (giving money to past shareholders) and a big special dividend and higher March 2023 dividend.
The Privatisation Proposal Process continues. It may get a result, or not. New director choices will wait. Now we start a quiet period where privatisation news competes with analyst bearishness.


Toshiba (6502) - Iffy Earnings, Worse Projections, A Special Div, But Privatisation Process Proceeds

<ul>
<li>Toshiba announced that it will start a sale process by offering info, and running a two-round "strategic alternative" process. Info and non-binding proposals followed by due dili and binding proposals.</li>
<li>For me, this seems like "That One Piece Of News" which is required to make the range jump, and to get people into Now-We-Are-Going-To-Get-A-Deal. </li>
<li>We may not, of course, and it will be a long, complicated road. But this is a step change. Starting a beauty contest is a big deal.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba announced that it will start a sale process by offering info, and running a two-round "strategic alternative" process. Info and non-binding proposals followed by due dili and binding proposals.
For me, this seems like "That One Piece Of News" which is required to make the range jump, and to get people into Now-We-Are-Going-To-Get-A-Deal. 
We may not, of course, and it will be a long, complicated road. But this is a step change. Starting a beauty contest is a big deal.


Toshiba (6502) - Now We Have "That One Piece Of News"

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>PHC Holding had raised US$645m in its Japan IPO in Oct 2021, after the deal was downsized and priced at the low-end.</li>
<li>PHC is engaged in the development, manufacturing and sale of healthcare devices and services. The company has three main segments: Diabetes Management; Healthcare Services; and Diagnosis/Life Science.</li>
<li>The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup today on 11th Apr 2022. Its largest shareholder is KKR, who still owns a 39% stake in the company. </li>
</ul>


PHC Holding had raised US$645m in its Japan IPO in Oct 2021, after the deal was downsized and priced at the low-end.
PHC is engaged in the development, manufacturing and sale of healthcare devices and services. The company has three main segments: Diabetes Management; Healthcare Services; and Diagnosis/Life Science.
The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup today on 11th Apr 2022. Its largest shareholder is KKR, who still owns a 39% stake in the company. 


PHC Holdings IPO Lock-Up - Stock Might Be Cheap but It’s Stuck with a US$1bn Overhang

Japan

TOSHIBA TEC CORPORATION manufactures electronic equipment for distribution system, document processing, and household use.  The Company's products include Point of Sale (POS) systems, bar code scanners, copy machines, printers, and vacuum cleaners.

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Toshiba Tec (6588 JP)

Toshiba (6502) - Now We Have the First Rounds Bids In, And We Wait, But It's Top of Range

Toshiba today announced a comprehensive deck with a Management Policy update, which is a very interesting read. They also announced they had...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba – Key Takeaway Is Toshiba Tec’s Attractiveness

Toshiba's presentation today offered little new aside from rather optimistic "LT" targets but we believe it highlighted the enormous strategic...

Mio Kato

Toshiba (6502) - Iffy Earnings, Worse Projections, A Special Div, But Privatisation Process Proceeds

Toshiba (6502) reported disappointing earnings in the infra business and what appears to be conservative revenue guidance. But they offer regular...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502) - Now We Have "That One Piece Of News"

Toshiba has started a beauty contest process. There will be two stages, and the news on Stage I will only come after the AGM (Toshiba's pushback to...

Travis Lundy

PHC Holdings IPO Lock-Up - Stock Might Be Cheap but It’s Stuck with a US$1bn Overhang

PHC Holding had raised US$645m in its Japan IPO in Oct 2021, after the deal was downsized and priced at the low-end. The lock-up on pre-IPO...

Sumeet Singh

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