Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime</li>
</ul>


Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.
We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime


Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 21/Mar, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.3m barrels (vs. expectations of 1.5m build), gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell less than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose by 37 Bcf for the week ending 21/Mar, in line with analyst expectations. Inventories are 6.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Shell to boost shareholder distributions to 40-50% of CFFO and cut costs by USD 5-7 billion by 2028. Exxon plans 250 layoffs in the UK by 2026.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 21/Mar, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.3m barrels (vs. expectations of 1.5m build), gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell less than expected.
US natural gas inventories rose by 37 Bcf for the week ending 21/Mar, in line with analyst expectations. Inventories are 6.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.
Shell to boost shareholder distributions to 40-50% of CFFO and cut costs by USD 5-7 billion by 2028. Exxon plans 250 layoffs in the UK by 2026.


[ETP 2025/13] WTI Climbs on Trade Disruptions, Moderate Weather Forecasts Cap Henry Hub

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

<ul><li>Global base oils prices mostly weaken vs higher feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>Lower prices of light-grade base oils relative to heavy-neutrals leave those supplies more exposed to impact of higher feedstock costs at a time when demand faces seasonal rise.</li><li>FOB Asia base oils prices fall vs Singapore gasoil.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices mostly weaken vs higher feedstock/competing fuel prices.Lower prices of light-grade base oils relative to heavy-neutrals leave those supplies more exposed to impact of higher feedstock costs at a time when demand faces seasonal rise.FOB Asia base oils prices fall vs Singapore gasoil.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 24 March

<ul><li>Europe’s Group II base oils prices rise vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025.</li><li>Europe’s Group I brightstock price rises vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025.</li><li>Outperformance of Europe base oils prices vs prices in US and Asia points to firmer supply-demand fundamentals in Europe than in those other markets.</li></ul>

Europe’s Group II base oils prices rise vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025.Europe’s Group I brightstock price rises vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025.Outperformance of Europe base oils prices vs prices in US and Asia points to firmer supply-demand fundamentals in Europe than in those other markets.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 24 March

<ul><li>US base oils prices hold steady versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>Base oils margins hold in narrow range even as wave of plant maintenance work in North America coincides with seasonal rise in demand.</li><li>Any tightening of supply fundamentals would typically first impact spot shipments for export markets.</li></ul>

US base oils prices hold steady versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.Base oils margins hold in narrow range even as wave of plant maintenance work in North America coincides with seasonal rise in demand.Any tightening of supply fundamentals would typically first impact spot shipments for export markets.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 24 March

France

TOTAL S.A. explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas. The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. TOTAL operates gasoline filling stations in Europe, the United States, and Africa.

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TotalEnergies (TTE FP)

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2025/13] WTI Climbs on Trade Disruptions, Moderate Weather Forecasts Cap Henry Hub

US oil inventories fell more than expected, while natural gas inventories rose in line with expectations. Shell to increase shareholder...

Mint Finance

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 24 March

Global base oils prices mostly weaken vs higher feedstock/competing fuel prices. Lower prices of light-grade base oils relative to heavy-neutrals...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 24 March

Europe’s Group II base oils prices rise vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025. Europe’s Group I brightstock price rises vs prices in US and Asia...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 24 March

US base oils prices hold steady versus feedstock/competing fuel prices. Base oils margins hold in narrow range even as wave of plant maintenance...

Base Oil News

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2025/13] WTI Climbs on Trade Disruptions, Moderate Weather Forecasts Cap Henry Hub

​US oil inventories fell more than expected, while natural gas inventories rose in line with expectations. Shell to increase shareholder...

Mint Finance

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 24 March

Global base oils prices mostly weaken vs higher feedstock/competing fuel prices. Lower prices of light-grade base oils relative to heavy-neutrals...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 24 March

Europe’s Group II base oils prices rise vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025. Europe’s Group I brightstock price rises vs prices in US and Asia...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 24 March

US base oils prices hold steady versus feedstock/competing fuel prices. Base oils margins hold in narrow range even as wave of plant maintenance...

Base Oil News

US oil inventories fell more than expected, while natural gas inventories rose in line with expectations. Shell to increase shareholder...