New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tourism Holdings (THL) has endured a tough 18 months amid challenging conditions but remains profitable.</li><li>FY25 will represent the trough of THL's earnings cycle, though a challenging 1H26 is anticipated due to factors like the Trump hangover impacting peak-season US rentals.</li><li>The Canadian government has removed its retaliatory tariff on RV imports from the US, which is positive for THL's North American operations.</li></ul>

Tourism Holdings (THL) has endured a tough 18 months amid challenging conditions but remains profitable.FY25 will represent the trough of THL's earnings cycle, though a challenging 1H26 is anticipated due to factors like the Trump hangover impacting peak-season US rentals.The Canadian government has removed its retaliatory tariff on RV imports from the US, which is positive for THL's North American operations.

Tourism Holdings - Crawling in Slow Lane but Plenty of Gas in Tank

<ul><li>Tourism Holdings (THL) received a non-binding indicative offer from a consortium led by BGH Capital, offering NZ$2.30 per share, which represents a 57% premium to the previous closing price.</li><li>The THL board is expected to reject the offer as it undervalues both the company's asset and earnings potential.</li><li>BGH Capital has a history of increasing its initial bids for listed companies, suggesting a higher offer might be forthcoming.</li></ul>

Tourism Holdings (THL) received a non-binding indicative offer from a consortium led by BGH Capital, offering NZ$2.30 per share, which represents a 57% premium to the previous closing price.The THL board is expected to reject the offer as it undervalues both the company's asset and earnings potential.BGH Capital has a history of increasing its initial bids for listed companies, suggesting a higher offer might be forthcoming.

Tourism Holdings - Someone's Knocking on the Motorhome Door

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Dual-Listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tourism-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2787:1" rel="noopener">Tourism Holdings (THL NZ)</a>, the world's largest commercial recreation vehicle (RV) rental operator, announced this morning an unsolicited NBIO from a consortium comprising BGH Capital and the Trouchet family. </li>
<li>The consortium is offering, by way of a Scheme, NZ$2.30/share. THL traded higher thirteen months ago, before announcing a significant profit warning in May sent shares down 36%.</li>
<li>BGH, now holding 19.9% (including the Trouchet's family stake), is capitalising on a “sharp drop in interest for inbound travel to the US”, and "elevated cancellations of existing bookings".</li>
</ul>


Dual-Listed Tourism Holdings (THL NZ), the world's largest commercial recreation vehicle (RV) rental operator, announced this morning an unsolicited NBIO from a consortium comprising BGH Capital and the Trouchet family. 
The consortium is offering, by way of a Scheme, NZ$2.30/share. THL traded higher thirteen months ago, before announcing a significant profit warning in May sent shares down 36%.
BGH, now holding 19.9% (including the Trouchet's family stake), is capitalising on a “sharp drop in interest for inbound travel to the US”, and "elevated cancellations of existing bookings".


BGH Seeks To Steer Tourism Holdings (THL NZ) Out Of A Rut

<ul><li>Tourism Holdings' recent trading update leads to a material downgrade in near-term earnings expectations due to deteriorating vehicle sales demand, particularly in North America.</li><li>Despite lower earnings, management remains confident with banking covenants and notes no need for new equity, with THL trading at a ~30% discount to its net tangible asset value.</li><li>The company maintains an OUTPERFORM rating, though investors are advised to be patient.</li></ul>

Tourism Holdings' recent trading update leads to a material downgrade in near-term earnings expectations due to deteriorating vehicle sales demand, particularly in North America.Despite lower earnings, management remains confident with banking covenants and notes no need for new equity, with THL trading at a ~30% discount to its net tangible asset value.The company maintains an OUTPERFORM rating, though investors are advised to be patient.

<ul><li>Tourism Holdings (THL) is negatively impacted by the Trump-led trade war, particularly affecting consumer confidence in North America.</li><li>THL is trading at a ~20% discount to net tangible assets and at a one-year forward PE of ~6x on revised estimates, with an OUTPERFORM rating.</li><li>Google Trends data shows a modest weakening of RV buyer interest in North America, while Australasia remains stable.</li></ul>

Tourism Holdings (THL) is negatively impacted by the Trump-led trade war, particularly affecting consumer confidence in North America.THL is trading at a ~20% discount to net tangible assets and at a one-year forward PE of ~6x on revised estimates, with an OUTPERFORM rating.Google Trends data shows a modest weakening of RV buyer interest in North America, while Australasia remains stable.

Tourism Holdings - A Rocky Road Eating Through the Rockies

New Zealand

Tourism Holdings Limited provides tourist services in New Zealand and Australia. The Company's services include campervan and motor homes, car rentals and coach services.  The Company also offers sightseeing tours, Antarctic tourist centers, boating tours and cave expeditions.

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Tourism Holdings (THL NZ)

Tourism Holdings - Crawling in Slow Lane but Plenty of Gas in Tank

FY25 will represent the trough of THL's earnings cycle, though a challenging 1H26 is anticipated due to factors like the Trump hangover impacting...

Forsyth Barr

Tourism Holdings - Someone's Knocking on the Motorhome Door

Tourism Holdings (THL) received a non-binding indicative offer from a consortium led by BGH Capital, offering NZ$2.30 per share, which represents a...

Forsyth Barr

BGH Seeks To Steer Tourism Holdings (THL NZ) Out Of A Rut

The Offer price is opportunistic. Covid, immigration, tariffs: there is never a dull moment. Trading at terms. This needs at least 10-15% from the...

David Blennerhassett

Tourism Holdings - Patience Is a Virtue

Tourism Holdings' recent trading update leads to a material downgrade in near-term earnings expectations due to deteriorating vehicle sales demand,...

Forsyth Barr

Tourism Holdings - A Rocky Road Eating Through the Rockies

Tourism Holdings (THL) is negatively impacted by the Trump-led trade war, particularly affecting consumer confidence in North America.

Forsyth Barr

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