Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><ul><li>Water Tower AI Flow Index. We monitor ~400 public companies across tech and AI for performance and AI-related news flow.</li><li>Last month (ending 3/31), the WTR AI Index was down 5.5% M/M versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 5.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 5.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 4.9%).</li><li>All sectors, with the exception of Internet and Data Services, were down M/M; Software, while still down M/M, was not down as much as other sectors. </li></ul></div>

Water Tower AI Flow Index. We monitor ~400 public companies across tech and AI for performance and AI-related news flow.Last month (ending 3/31), the WTR AI Index was down 5.5% M/M versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 5.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 5.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 4.9%).All sectors, with the exception of Internet and Data Services, were down M/M; Software, while still down M/M, was not down as much as other sectors. 

AI Flow Index : Sailing a Sea of Companies in AI - 2 April 2026

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. </li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. 


"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.</li>
<li>Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.
Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.


India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.</li>
<li>Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.
Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.


Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Giant Network Group Co Ltd / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>We remain overweight/continue to have a major focus on China (Shanghai Composite). It continues to offer the most attractive opportunities, with a significant number of today's recommendations coming from China.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $119-$121.
We remain overweight/continue to have a major focus on China (Shanghai Composite). It continues to offer the most attractive opportunities, with a significant number of today's recommendations coming from China.


Sticking With China; Bullish Outlook Intact. Buys in Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Tech

Israel

Tower Semiconductor Ltd. (TowerJazz) is an independent foundry providing semiconductor integrated circuits manufacturing & related design services. The Company manufactures wafers using its technologies & production capability and the proprietary designs of its customers. TowerJazz's integrated circuits are incorporated into a wide range of products in diverse markets.

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Tower Semiconductor (TSEM US)

AI Flow Index : Sailing a Sea of Companies in AI - 2 April 2026

Last month (ending 3/31), the WTR AI Index was down 5.5% M/M versus the S&P 500 Index (down 5.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 5.2%), and the...

Water Tower Research

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan $EWT, China $MCHI, Korea $EWY, and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Sticking With China; Bullish Outlook Intact. Buys in Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Tech

Still Bullish. China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 Int'l Compass titled "China and Japan Breaking Out." It...

Vermilion Research

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