Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Softbank claims Toyota's crown as Japan's largest company as ARM +15.7% on NVDA's PC superchip announcement.</li>
<li>QD Laser and TDK announce RGB laser partnership for building mass-production capability for smart-glasses hardware.</li>
<li>Space names facing heavy profit taking again despite Astroscale -14.2%, QPS -13.9% and Axelspace -10.6% yesterday.</li>
</ul>


Softbank claims Toyota's crown as Japan's largest company as ARM +15.7% on NVDA's PC superchip announcement.
QD Laser and TDK announce RGB laser partnership for building mass-production capability for smart-glasses hardware.
Space names facing heavy profit taking again despite Astroscale -14.2%, QPS -13.9% and Axelspace -10.6% yesterday.


Japan Morning Connection: Long AI Short Software Trade Unwinding as Jensen Backs Software

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> sold off after printing new all time highs at 4000 in early February. A drop in operating and net income came 2 months later, early May.</li>
<li>Management guidance for FY2027 is the market's primary unresolved risk. Although the stock was very oversold, our model signals the rally that started this week may be short-lived. 
</li>
<li>The most likely scenario is a brief continuation of the rally into next week, and then a new dip towards lower lows.</li>
</ul>



Toyota Motor (7203 JP) sold off after printing new all time highs at 4000 in early February. A drop in operating and net income came 2 months later, early May.
Management guidance for FY2027 is the market's primary unresolved risk. Although the stock was very oversold, our model signals the rally that started this week may be short-lived. 

The most likely scenario is a brief continuation of the rally into next week, and then a new dip towards lower lows.


Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Amid Profit Collapse: Current Rebound Has No Legs

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FY2026 earnings missed expectations as tariffs, rising costs, and weak North America profitability offset solid vehicle demand and hybrid sales growth.</li>
<li>Management’s FY2027 guidance implies a third straight year of profit decline, signalling Toyota is entering a costly but necessary phase of structural transformation.</li>
<li>Toyota's challenges are huge, and many are beyond its measure of control. Risk/reward is unattractive. Our FV is ¥2,400 (+1F PE of 13x, +1SD mean). AVOID. </li>
</ul>


FY2026 earnings missed expectations as tariffs, rising costs, and weak North America profitability offset solid vehicle demand and hybrid sales growth.
Management’s FY2027 guidance implies a third straight year of profit decline, signalling Toyota is entering a costly but necessary phase of structural transformation.
Toyota's challenges are huge, and many are beyond its measure of control. Risk/reward is unattractive. Our FV is ¥2,400 (+1F PE of 13x, +1SD mean). AVOID. 


Toyota Motor (7203 JP) FY2026 Results: Below as US Tariff Bites, Iranian War & Chinese Auto Woes

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Commodities

OSE Rubber Future Contract RSS3 / Commodities

OSE Rubber Future Contract RSS3 (JNA COMDTY)

<ul>
<li>ANRPC projects 2025 production growth of 0.3% versus demand growth of 1.8%, suggesting tighter balances may persist if demand remains supportive.</li>
<li>SHFE rubber inventories stood at 125,410 tonnes versus a long-term median of 508,990 tonnes, indicating reduced visible supply buffers.</li>
<li>Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while slower biological supply responses increase market sensitivity if demand conditions strengthen.</li>
</ul>


ANRPC projects 2025 production growth of 0.3% versus demand growth of 1.8%, suggesting tighter balances may persist if demand remains supportive.
SHFE rubber inventories stood at 125,410 tonnes versus a long-term median of 508,990 tonnes, indicating reduced visible supply buffers.
Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while slower biological supply responses increase market sensitivity if demand conditions strengthen.


Natural Rubber: Weather Disruption Underpins Supply Tightness, as Demand Weighs In

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor Corp Spon Adr (TM US)

Japan Morning Connection: Long AI Short Software Trade Unwinding as Jensen Backs Software

Software set to surge with Jensen’s narrative that AI agents will consume more software, and that demand for software engineers is set to sharply...

Andrew Jackson

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Amid Profit Collapse: Current Rebound Has No Legs

Toyota Motor's profits cratered in Q4 as US tariffs erased all North American earnings. The stock is bouncing — our model says SELL THE RALLY.

Nico Rosti

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) FY2026 Results: Below as US Tariff Bites, Iranian War & Chinese Auto Woes

Toyota's earnings missed expectations due to tariffs and rising costs, leading to a third year of profit decline and a challenging transformation...

Mo Aziz

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Natural Rubber: Weather Disruption Underpins Supply Tightness, as Demand Weighs In

Weather may initiate supply tightening, but lower inventories and downstream demand determine whether tighter rubber conditions become investable.

Duncan Chan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Long AI Short Software Trade Unwinding as Jensen Backs Software

Software set to surge with Jensen’s narrative that AI agents will consume more software, and that demand for software engineers is set to sharply...

Andrew Jackson

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Amid Profit Collapse: Current Rebound Has No Legs

​Toyota Motor's profits cratered in Q4 as US tariffs erased all North American earnings. The stock is bouncing — our model says SELL THE RALLY.

Nico Rosti

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) FY2026 Results: Below as US Tariff Bites, Iranian War & Chinese Auto Woes

​Toyota's earnings missed expectations due to tariffs and rising costs, leading to a third year of profit decline and a challenging transformation...

Mo Aziz

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

​Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Natural Rubber: Weather Disruption Underpins Supply Tightness, as Demand Weighs In

Weather may initiate supply tightening, but lower inventories and downstream demand determine whether tighter rubber conditions become investable.

Duncan Chan

Toyota Motor's profits cratered in Q4 as US tariffs erased all North American earnings. The stock is bouncing — our model says SELL THE RALLY.

Toyota's earnings missed expectations due to tariffs and rising costs, leading to a third year of profit decline and a challenging transformation...

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...