Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently twelve pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently twelve pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (1 Dec)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the US$0.8 billion secondary offering, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyoda-gosei-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20125:1" rel="noopener">Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)</a>’s shares have declined 4.9% to the undisturbed price of JPY3,754 per share (20 November).</li>
<li>It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Toyoda's share decline is better than the median of recent large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 1 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the US$0.8 billion secondary offering, Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)’s shares have declined 4.9% to the undisturbed price of JPY3,754 per share (20 November).
It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Toyoda's share decline is better than the median of recent large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 1 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.


Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP): The Current Playbook

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

<ul>
<li>This insight details about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a> 's 1H performance and outlook for 2H</li>
<li>We detail why 2H outlook is fluid and similar to “a cat on the wall” situation. Reasons mentioned in this insight.</li>
<li>While company's valuation is not cheap compared to peers but there is a possibility to perform better than estimates in 2H FY2025</li>
</ul>


This insight details about Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) 's 1H performance and outlook for 2H
We detail why 2H outlook is fluid and similar to “a cat on the wall” situation. Reasons mentioned in this insight.
While company's valuation is not cheap compared to peers but there is a possibility to perform better than estimates in 2H FY2025


Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): 2H Outlook — A Cat-On-The-Wall Situation

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a> price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long Toyota and short Suzuki targets a 7% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Toyota Motor (7203 JP) vs. Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: Going long Toyota and short Suzuki targets a 7% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Toyota (7203 JP) Vs. Suzuki (7269 JP): Statistical Arbitrage Pair Reignites with 7% Target Return

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Last week, before the long weekend, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)</a> announced a very big secondary selldown of shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyoda-gosei-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20125:1" rel="noopener">Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The selldown is 85x 3mo ADV, 27% of shares out. 125% of Max Real World Float. It's a lot of stock at $750mm. One wonders where demand is.</li>
<li>They also announced a big buyback, which is some of it, and there are index impacts, BUT this offering needs to find LOTS of new fundamental owners quickly.</li>
</ul>


Last week, before the long weekend, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) announced a very big secondary selldown of shares in Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP). 
The selldown is 85x 3mo ADV, 27% of shares out. 125% of Max Real World Float. It's a lot of stock at $750mm. One wonders where demand is.
They also announced a big buyback, which is some of it, and there are index impacts, BUT this offering needs to find LOTS of new fundamental owners quickly.


[Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (1 Dec)

Statistical methodology identifies twelve pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 1 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

Arun George

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): 2H Outlook — A Cat-On-The-Wall Situation

As per the Vahan government website(which captures the retail vehicle sales in India), the growth for passenger cars is holding up well even post...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Toyota (7203 JP) Vs. Suzuki (7269 JP): Statistical Arbitrage Pair Reignites with 7% Target Return

Toyota and Suzuki’s price ratio has again breached key statistical thresholds, presenting a fresh arbitrage opportunity targeting 7% mean-reversion.

Gaudenz Schneider

[Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF

The Toyoda Gosei offering announced late last week is big. The stock fell sharply; it bounced since. The overhang is large. And the register...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (1 Dec)

​Statistical methodology identifies twelve pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 1 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

Arun George

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): 2H Outlook — A Cat-On-The-Wall Situation

As per the Vahan government website(which captures the retail vehicle sales in India), the growth for passenger cars is holding up well even post...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Toyota (7203 JP) Vs. Suzuki (7269 JP): Statistical Arbitrage Pair Reignites with 7% Target Return

Toyota and Suzuki’s price ratio has again breached key statistical thresholds, presenting a fresh arbitrage opportunity targeting 7% mean-reversion.

Gaudenz Schneider

[Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF

The Toyoda Gosei offering announced late last week is big. The stock fell sharply; it bounced since. The overhang is large. And the register...

Travis Lundy

Statistical methodology identifies twelve pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative...