Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TRATON SE's Q1 2025 results reveal a company navigating a range of challenges amid shifting global market conditions, though not without its own resilient strategies.</li><li>The results reflect a 10% decline in both delivery figures and sales revenues, largely attributed to challenging truck market environments in Europe and North America, and normalized order books not operating at full capacity.</li><li>This downtrend was further influenced by foreign currency headwinds and higher R&D expenses, impacting adjusted return on sales, which decreased to 6.1%.</li></ul>

TRATON SE's Q1 2025 results reveal a company navigating a range of challenges amid shifting global market conditions, though not without its own resilient strategies.The results reflect a 10% decline in both delivery figures and sales revenues, largely attributed to challenging truck market environments in Europe and North America, and normalized order books not operating at full capacity.This downtrend was further influenced by foreign currency headwinds and higher R&D expenses, impacting adjusted return on sales, which decreased to 6.1%.

Traton Group: Initiation of Coverage- Can This EUR 2 Billion China Bet Redefine Global Trucking?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>There could be two regular MDAX changes in June including the long-anticipated deletion of M&amp;A candidate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/morphosys-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21675:1" rel="noopener">MorphoSys AG (MOR GR)</a>. </li>
<li>We do not see any changes for the DAX index based on the current numbers.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
There could be two regular MDAX changes in June including the long-anticipated deletion of M&amp;A candidate MorphoSys AG (MOR GR). 
We do not see any changes for the DAX index based on the current numbers.


Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Jun 24: Hellofresh MDAX Deletion Hinges on Encavis Tender Offer Result

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>I currently see no changes for the DAX index but there could be one change for the MDAX index.</li>
<li>M&amp;A candidate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/morphosys-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21675:1" rel="noopener">MorphoSys AG (MOR GR)</a> could be deleted in the run up to the June 2024 review.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
I currently see no changes for the DAX index but there could be one change for the MDAX index.
M&amp;A candidate MorphoSys AG (MOR GR) could be deleted in the run up to the June 2024 review.


Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Germany

Traton SE designs and manufactures automobiles. The Company produces light-duty commercial vehicles, trucks, and buses. Traton serves customers worldwide.

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Traton SE (8TRA GR)

Traton Group: Initiation of Coverage- Can This EUR 2 Billion China Bet Redefine Global Trucking?

TRATON SE's Q1 2025 results reveal a company navigating a range of challenges amid shifting global market conditions, though not without its own...

Baptista Research

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Jun 24: Hellofresh MDAX Deletion Hinges on Encavis Tender Offer Result

Hellofresh could be deleted from the MDAX index in June 2024. However, this depends on the final outcome of the Encavis Tender Offer.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index

Commercial vehicle manufacturer Traton is a strong candidate for MDAX addition. The expected index flow could act as a catalyst and help the stock...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

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