Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As Hong Kong market continues to consolidate, the consumer discretionary sector is leading in momentum and strength while the energy and materials sectors lag.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> received BUY ratings after a strong 3Q24 announcement on revenue and earnings.  China's tourist numbers are projected to reach Pre-COVID levels soon.
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (YUMC US)</a> received BUY ratings after initial success from its small store/franchising strategy.  The company is actively returning capital to shareholders.</li>
</ul>


As Hong Kong market continues to consolidate, the consumer discretionary sector is leading in momentum and strength while the energy and materials sectors lag.

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) , Trip.com (TCOM US) received BUY ratings after a strong 3Q24 announcement on revenue and earnings.  China's tourist numbers are projected to reach Pre-COVID levels soon.

Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) , Yum China Holdings (YUMC US) received BUY ratings after initial success from its small store/franchising strategy.  The company is actively returning capital to shareholders.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 29)

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Despite being a key beneficiary in travel and tourism in China, the rather muted growth in the first half does not bode well for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> .</li>
<li>YTD share price performance has reflected the above, but the deep discount valuation to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> might be temporary.</li>
<li>In the near term, the company's share price will not rebound as the company has less upside participation compared to Airlines and OTA. </li>
</ul>


Despite being a key beneficiary in travel and tourism in China, the rather muted growth in the first half does not bode well for Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) .
YTD share price performance has reflected the above, but the deep discount valuation to Trip.com (TCOM US) might be temporary.
In the near term, the company's share price will not rebound as the company has less upside participation compared to Airlines and OTA. 


<ul>
<li>Hong Kong is showing strong market momentum as consumer staples, consumer discretionary, healthcare and tech surge on increased momentum.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xtep-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18118:1" rel="noopener">Xtep International (1368 HK)</a> had a good 1H24 and benefited from better consumer sentiment. Analysts are upgrading <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) on an improved outlook.</a></li>
<li>Goldman Sachs upgraded their rating on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili (9626 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili (BILI US)</a> to a BUY with improving user MAU/DAU measures and the success of its newly launched game.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong is showing strong market momentum as consumer staples, consumer discretionary, healthcare and tech surge on increased momentum.
Xtep International (1368 HK) had a good 1H24 and benefited from better consumer sentiment. Analysts are upgrading Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) on an improved outlook.
Goldman Sachs upgraded their rating on Bilibili (9626 HK) , Bilibili (BILI US) to a BUY with improving user MAU/DAU measures and the success of its newly launched game.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 28)

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>1H24 results was above expectation and showing good signs of cost control and topline recovery. We expect the momentum to continue. </li>
<li>Air traffic in China continues to grow strongly, with domestic travel leading the way. International traffic is picking up momentum, but still 23% gap to pre-Covid's numbers. </li>
<li>Revised fair value of HKD11.10 (+18% UPSIDE) is based on 2025 PE 12.5x (1SD below mean). </li>
</ul>


1H24 results was above expectation and showing good signs of cost control and topline recovery. We expect the momentum to continue. 
Air traffic in China continues to grow strongly, with domestic travel leading the way. International traffic is picking up momentum, but still 23% gap to pre-Covid's numbers. 
Revised fair value of HKD11.10 (+18% UPSIDE) is based on 2025 PE 12.5x (1SD below mean). 


Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD11.0): Making Good Progress

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> Jan-Feb operational data strong, volume processed by domestic +45% YoY and international by +52% YoY; much higher than the consensus 2024 forecast of 15%  </li>
<li>Traffic among the Big 3 Chinese airlines was up 46% YoY (-9% MoM) in March to +8% vs 2019. Domestic traffic rose 19% YoY (-11% MoM) to +24% vs 2019</li>
<li>TP of HKD9.92 (+8% UPSIDE) is based on 2024 PE 14.8x (1SD below mean). The upside is uncompelling, but we advocate a HOLD as traffic growth is stronger than consensus   </li>
</ul>



Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) Jan-Feb operational data strong, volume processed by domestic +45% YoY and international by +52% YoY; much higher than the consensus 2024 forecast of 15%  
Traffic among the Big 3 Chinese airlines was up 46% YoY (-9% MoM) in March to +8% vs 2019. Domestic traffic rose 19% YoY (-11% MoM) to +24% vs 2019
TP of HKD9.92 (+8% UPSIDE) is based on 2024 PE 14.8x (1SD below mean). The upside is uncompelling, but we advocate a HOLD as traffic growth is stronger than consensus   


Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD9.92): Domestic Travel Will Support Growth

China

TravelSky Technology Ltd. is a dominant provider of information technology solutions for China's aviation and travel industry. It offers electronic travel distribution, airport passenger processing, and settlement and clearing services for airlines, airports, and travel agencies. The company is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was incorporated in 2000.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

TravelSky Technology (696 HK)

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 29)

Hong Kong and China markets are outperforming their Asian peers this year. Trip.com announced strong results as China's tourism industry...

David Mudd

Travelsky (696): Sleepy Giant

Travelsky's dependability as the engine behind airports is known, but it also has less upside participation while the OTAs and airlines have more...

Henry Soediarko

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 28)

Hong Kong market continues to re-rate on the back of PBOC stimulus. XTEP and Tongcheng benefit from improved consumer sentiment and earnings...

David Mudd

Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD11.0): Making Good Progress

Strong 1H24 results with strong growth momentum. China's air traffic grows, but international numbers still lag pre-Covid levels. Fair value...

Mo Aziz

Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD9.92): Domestic Travel Will Support Growth

Strong operational data in 1Q24, especially for domestic traffic growth (+19% YoY) which surpasses consensus expectations of 15% growth for full...

Mo Aziz

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 29)

Hong Kong and China markets are outperforming their Asian peers this year. Trip.com announced strong results as China's tourism industry...

David Mudd

Travelsky (696): Sleepy Giant

Travelsky's dependability as the engine behind airports is known, but it also has less upside participation while the OTAs and airlines have more...

Henry Soediarko

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 28)

Hong Kong market continues to re-rate on the back of PBOC stimulus. XTEP and Tongcheng benefit from improved consumer sentiment and earnings...

David Mudd

Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD11.0): Making Good Progress

Strong 1H24 results with strong growth momentum. China's air traffic grows, but international numbers still lag pre-Covid levels. Fair value...

Mo Aziz

Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD9.92): Domestic Travel Will Support Growth

​Strong operational data in 1Q24, especially for domestic traffic growth (+19% YoY) which surpasses consensus expectations of 15% growth for full...

Mo Aziz

Strong operational data in 1Q24, especially for domestic traffic growth (+19% YoY) which surpasses consensus expectations of 15% growth for full...