Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>LDP was trounced on Sunday, but the yen is already starting to pare weakness which priced in ahead.</li>
<li>Power semi's may be under pressure with NXP miss after-market and Stellantis surprise loss yesterday.</li>
<li>Microsoft reeling from massive cyber attack positive for security software including Trend Micro.</li>
</ul>


LDP was trounced on Sunday, but the yen is already starting to pare weakness which priced in ahead.
Power semi's may be under pressure with NXP miss after-market and Stellantis surprise loss yesterday.
Microsoft reeling from massive cyber attack positive for security software including Trend Micro.


Japan Morning Connection: Ishiba's Expected Defeat Already Showing Limited Reaction from Markets

<ul>
<li>AI and tech took a backseat, although momentum significantly outperformed value which is likely to be reflected in JP.</li>
<li>Trend Micro may be in focus after analyst pushes cyber security as biggest tech trade this year.</li>
<li>KHI looking to release its own humanoid, but Harmonic joints are out of favor and worth another look after steep decline.</li>
</ul>


AI and tech took a backseat, although momentum significantly outperformed value which is likely to be reflected in JP.
Trend Micro may be in focus after analyst pushes cyber security as biggest tech trade this year.
KHI looking to release its own humanoid, but Harmonic joints are out of favor and worth another look after steep decline.


Japan Morning Connection: Oil Down and Defense up as Trump Rails at Putin and Sends More Patriots

<ul>
<li>Applied Digital landing a big data center order from CoreWeave lifting AI related plays setting upbeat tone for SPE.</li>
<li>Big Chinese SiC capacity coming online further adding to the price pressures for Rohm.</li>
<li>Square Enix cancelling its 'Project Gemini' with Polish developer another foreign flop reminiscent of Avengers?</li>
</ul>


Applied Digital landing a big data center order from CoreWeave lifting AI related plays setting upbeat tone for SPE.
Big Chinese SiC capacity coming online further adding to the price pressures for Rohm.
Square Enix cancelling its 'Project Gemini' with Polish developer another foreign flop reminiscent of Avengers?


Japan Morning Connection: Markets Rising from Morning Lows on Expectations for a Trump-Xi Call

Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Toumei is a Yokkaichi-founded (1997) reseller of NTT’s fiber broadband and JEPX-sourced wholesale electricity to Japanese SMEs, sold almost entirely through outbound telemarketing to a customer database of 130,000+ small businesses built since 2015, plus a smaller IT-hardware and insurance-agency segment.</li><li>Net income compounded roughly 8.8x between FY2021 and FY2025 and ROE rose from 5.8% to 27.9%, but the stock has already re-rated about 43% above the level that made it look statistically cheap on a screen</li><li>On an equity basis it now trades at an ordinary ~9.7x P/E once the ¥6.36bn of net cash inflating the headline TEV multiple is backed out.</li></ul>

Toumei is a Yokkaichi-founded (1997) reseller of NTT’s fiber broadband and JEPX-sourced wholesale electricity to Japanese SMEs, sold almost entirely through outbound telemarketing to a customer database of 130,000+ small businesses built since 2015, plus a smaller IT-hardware and insurance-agency segment.Net income compounded roughly 8.8x between FY2021 and FY2025 and ROE rose from 5.8% to 27.9%, but the stock has already re-rated about 43% above the level that made it look statistically cheap on a screenOn an equity basis it now trades at an ordinary ~9.7x P/E once the ¥6.36bn of net cash inflating the headline TEV multiple is backed out.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.</li>
<li>We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.</li>
</ul>


The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.
We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.
We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.


Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan

Trend Micro Incorporated develops and markets anti-virus computer software and internet security software.  The Company also sells its products in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

Price Gauge
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Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Ishiba's Expected Defeat Already Showing Limited Reaction from Markets

Slight negative for power semis after NXP guidance missed. Cyber security names benefiting from aftermath of Microsoft's SharePoint being hacked.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Oil Down and Defense up as Trump Rails at Putin and Sends More Patriots

JP autos look ripe for a squeeze if better than expected tarrif outcome. Musk convinced by his humanoid robots despite setbacks. JP heavies should...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Rising from Morning Lows on Expectations for a Trump-Xi Call

Applied Digital secures big data center order, setting a good tone for AI and SPE. Chinese SiC capacity increase adds pressure for Rohm. Potential...

Andrew Jackson

Monday Delight: 31/08/2026

Toumei is a Yokkaichi-founded (1997) reseller of NTT’s fiber broadband and JEPX-sourced wholesale electricity to Japanese SMEs, sold almost...

Contrarian Cashflows

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Ishiba's Expected Defeat Already Showing Limited Reaction from Markets

Slight negative for power semis after NXP guidance missed. Cyber security names benefiting from aftermath of Microsoft's SharePoint being hacked.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Oil Down and Defense up as Trump Rails at Putin and Sends More Patriots

JP autos look ripe for a squeeze if better than expected tarrif outcome. Musk convinced by his humanoid robots despite setbacks. JP heavies should...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Rising from Morning Lows on Expectations for a Trump-Xi Call

​Applied Digital secures big data center order, setting a good tone for AI and SPE. Chinese SiC capacity increase adds pressure for Rohm. Potential...

Andrew Jackson

Monday Delight: 31/08/2026

Toumei is a Yokkaichi-founded (1997) reseller of NTT’s fiber broadband and JEPX-sourced wholesale electricity to Japanese SMEs, sold almost...

Contrarian Cashflows

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

Applied Digital secures big data center order, setting a good tone for AI and SPE. Chinese SiC capacity increase adds pressure for Rohm. Potential...