Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023</li>
<li>As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves </li>
<li>TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023
As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves 
TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts


Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Smartworks Coworking Spaces Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartworks-coworking-spaces-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43882:1" rel="noopener">Smartworks Coworking Spaces Ltd (1742134D IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$120m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>It is an office experience and managed campus platform, typically focused on leasing entire/large, bare shell properties in prime locations and transforming them into fully serviced, tech-enabled campuses with amenities.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.</li>
</ul>



Smartworks Coworking Spaces Ltd (1742134D IN) is looking to raise about US$120m in its India IPO.
It is an office experience and managed campus platform, typically focused on leasing entire/large, bare shell properties in prime locations and transforming them into fully serviced, tech-enabled campuses with amenities.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.


Smartworks Coworking Spaces Pre-IPO - Healthy Revenue Growth Led by Strategic Capacity Expansion

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index</a>, CNXIT Index, Nifty Midcap 150 Index, Nifty100 Low Volatility30 Index and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF</a> rebalance at the close tomorrow.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across the indices is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Stocks with the largest inflows are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-heavy-electricals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:460:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Heavy Electricals</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-natural-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3456:1" rel="noopener">Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-aeronautics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26747:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Aeronautics</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interglobe-aviation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24877:1" rel="noopener">InterGlobe Aviation</a>.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index, Nifty Next 50 Index, NSE Nifty Bank Index, CNXIT Index, Nifty Midcap 150 Index, Nifty100 Low Volatility30 Index and the CPSE ETF rebalance at the close tomorrow.
The round-trip trade across the indices is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Stocks with the largest inflows are Trent, Bharat Electronics, Canara Bank, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp, Coal India, Hindustan Aeronautics and InterGlobe Aviation.


NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Tomorrow; Round-Trip US$3.3bn

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The September 2024 Rebalance results for the NIFTY broad market Indices were announced after the close on Friday 23rd August 2024.</li>
<li>There will be two changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100 during the September 2024 index rebal event. All of these changes were as predicted. </li>
<li>All NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 changes will also be reflected in the NIFTY Next 50 index which could see US$647mn one-way capping flows.</li>
</ul>


The September 2024 Rebalance results for the NIFTY broad market Indices were announced after the close on Friday 23rd August 2024.
There will be two changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100 during the September 2024 index rebal event. All of these changes were as predicted. 
All NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 changes will also be reflected in the NIFTY Next 50 index which could see US$647mn one-way capping flows.


Quiddity NIFTY Sep 24 Rebal: US$647mn One-Way Capping for NIFTY Next 50; All Changes Were Predicted

P N Gadgil Jewellers / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/p-n-gadgil-jewellers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41129:1" rel="noopener">P N Gadgil Jewellers (1742652D IN)</a> raised around US$130m in its India IPO. </li>
<li>It is an Indian organized jewellery player with product offerings which include traditional as well as modern and functional jewellery designs, in gold, diamond, silver and platinum.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuation. In this note, we talk about trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



P N Gadgil Jewellers (1742652D IN) raised around US$130m in its India IPO. 
It is an Indian organized jewellery player with product offerings which include traditional as well as modern and functional jewellery designs, in gold, diamond, silver and platinum.
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuation. In this note, we talk about trading dynamics.


P N Gadgil Jewellers IPO Trading- Decent Anchor, Strong Insti Demand

India

Trent Limited operates a chain of retail stores that sell fashion apparel, cosmetics, perfumery products and toiletry items. The Company sells apparel for men, women and children. Trent sells its cosmetics products under the "Westside" and "Trent" brand names.

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Trent Ltd (TRENT IN)

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE (local currency) Also Below Resistance Though Testing Now; $EEM breakout...

Vermilion Research

Smartworks Coworking Spaces Pre-IPO - Healthy Revenue Growth Led by Strategic Capacity Expansion

Smartworks Coworking Spaces Limited is looking to raise about US$120m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about the company’s historical...

Akshat Shah

NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Tomorrow; Round-Trip US$3.3bn

The next rebalance of the Nifty family of indices takes place at the close on 27 Sep. The round-trip trade is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity NIFTY Sep 24 Rebal: US$647mn One-Way Capping for NIFTY Next 50; All Changes Were Predicted

The NIFTY50/NIFTY Next 50 Inclusion/Exclusion events will take place at the close of 27th September 2024. The final capping flows will be decided...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

P N Gadgil Jewellers IPO Trading- Decent Anchor, Strong Insti Demand

P N Gadgil Jewellers Ltd (PNGJ) raised around US$130m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Akshat Shah

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