HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 2Q23 earnings performance for China's tourism and hospitality stocks provides clear evidence for the sector's operational recovery. This will become even stronger into 2H23.</li>
<li>Forward bookings for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-world-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33487:1" rel="noopener">H World Grp (1179 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> all point to encouraging underlying demand.</li>
<li>Despite recent strengths in share price, consensus earnings upgrades have made their valuations even cheaper than three months ago.</li>
</ul>


The 2Q23 earnings performance for China's tourism and hospitality stocks provides clear evidence for the sector's operational recovery. This will become even stronger into 2H23.
Forward bookings for Tongcheng Travel (780 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK), H World Grp (1179 HK) and Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) all point to encouraging underlying demand.
Despite recent strengths in share price, consensus earnings upgrades have made their valuations even cheaper than three months ago.


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Pent-Up Demand Drives Robust Outlook

<ul>
<li>Despite solid 1Q23 result, share price performance for China's tourism and hospitality companies has been unexciting. This is unjustified and we expect a pick-up going forward.</li>
<li>While their earnings multiples are high at 31.0x and 21.6x for FY23 and FY24 respectively, they should be interpreted in the context of impressive FY23-24 average EPS growth of 51.4%.</li>
<li>Anecdotal evidences showed that positive momentum will sustain - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-world-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33487:1" rel="noopener">H World Group (1179 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> will stay as beneficiaries.</li>
</ul>


Despite solid 1Q23 result, share price performance for China's tourism and hospitality companies has been unexciting. This is unjustified and we expect a pick-up going forward.
While their earnings multiples are high at 31.0x and 21.6x for FY23 and FY24 respectively, they should be interpreted in the context of impressive FY23-24 average EPS growth of 51.4%.
Anecdotal evidences showed that positive momentum will sustain - Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK), H World Group (1179 HK) and Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) will stay as beneficiaries.


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Set for Stronger Momentum Ahead

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

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CX Daily: Chinese Firms Flock to Saudi Arabia in Middle East Gold Rush

<ul><li>Hundreds of millions of Chinese travelers crowded tourist hotspots across the country over the week-long Labor Day holiday</li><li>Travelers made 274 million domestic trips during the holiday, up 70.83% from last year, according to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism</li><li>Revenue from domestic tourism reached 148 billion yuan ($21 billion), an increase of 128.9% from the same period last year</li></ul>

Hundreds of millions of Chinese travelers crowded tourist hotspots across the country over the week-long Labor Day holidayTravelers made 274 million domestic trips during the holiday, up 70.83% from last year, according to data from the Ministry of Culture and TourismRevenue from domestic tourism reached 148 billion yuan ($21 billion), an increase of 128.9% from the same period last year

Hardly Anybody in China Stayed Home for the Holidays

<ul><li>Demand for hotel rooms and air tickets during this year’s Labor Day holiday is on track to exceed pre-pandemic levels of 2019, industry data showed</li><li>Many of the bookings were for destinations in the Yangtze River Delta region, Chongqing municipality, Chengdu and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cluster</li><li>The rebound in travel comes amid a broader recovery in tourism, with Qunar saying that tickets tourist attractions in Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, Guangzhou and Xi’an have been selling fast.</li></ul>

Demand for hotel rooms and air tickets during this year’s Labor Day holiday is on track to exceed pre-pandemic levels of 2019, industry data showedMany of the bookings were for destinations in the Yangtze River Delta region, Chongqing municipality, Chengdu and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei clusterThe rebound in travel comes amid a broader recovery in tourism, with Qunar saying that tickets tourist attractions in Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, Guangzhou and Xi’an have been selling fast.

Labor Day Holiday Travel Demand Tops Pre-Pandemic Levels

Singapore

Trip.com Group is a leading global one-stop travel platform offering accommodation reservations, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, and corporate travel management services. It operates a portfolio of brands including Trip.com, Ctrip, Skyscanner, and Qunar. The company was founded in June 1999 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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Trip.com Group (9961 HK)

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Pent-Up Demand Drives Robust Outlook

China's tourism-related stocks showed strong 2Q23 earnings recovery, with forward bookings indicating promising demand. Despite higher share...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Set for Stronger Momentum Ahead

We anticipate sustained earnings strength for China's tourism and hospitality industry following impressive 1Q23 results. This should underpin pick...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CX Daily: Chinese Firms Flock to Saudi Arabia in Middle East Gold Rush

In Depth: Chinese firms flock to Saudi Arabia in Middle East gold rush. Trending in China: About two dozen women accuse prominent screenwriter of...

Caixin Global

Hardly Anybody in China Stayed Home for the Holidays

Hundreds of millions of Chinese travelers crowded tourist hotspots across the country over the week-long Labor Day holiday

Caixin Global

Labor Day Holiday Travel Demand Tops Pre-Pandemic Levels

Demand for hotel rooms and air tickets during this year’s Labor Day holiday is on track to exceed pre-pandemic levels of 2019, industry data showed

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Pent-Up Demand Drives Robust Outlook

​China's tourism-related stocks showed strong 2Q23 earnings recovery, with forward bookings indicating promising demand. Despite higher share...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Set for Stronger Momentum Ahead

We anticipate sustained earnings strength for China's tourism and hospitality industry following impressive 1Q23 results. This should underpin pick...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CX Daily: Chinese Firms Flock to Saudi Arabia in Middle East Gold Rush

In Depth: Chinese firms flock to Saudi Arabia in Middle East gold rush. Trending in China: About two dozen women accuse prominent screenwriter of...

Caixin Global

Hardly Anybody in China Stayed Home for the Holidays

Hundreds of millions of Chinese travelers crowded tourist hotspots across the country over the week-long Labor Day holiday

Caixin Global

Labor Day Holiday Travel Demand Tops Pre-Pandemic Levels

Demand for hotel rooms and air tickets during this year’s Labor Day holiday is on track to exceed pre-pandemic levels of 2019, industry data showed

Caixin Global

China's tourism-related stocks showed strong 2Q23 earnings recovery, with forward bookings indicating promising demand. Despite higher share...