HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>October has been a poor month in the last five years, with an average return of -6.5%. This highlights the risk for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> next month.   </li>
<li>Factors including higher interest rates, the US mid-term election, elevated crude oil prices, and concerns about the AI investment outlook are negative issues. </li>
<li>November and December are, interestingly, the good months in the last five years. Aggressive players may buy back after a possible plunge in October.</li>
</ul>


October has been a poor month in the last five years, with an average return of -6.5%. This highlights the risk for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) next month.   
Factors including higher interest rates, the US mid-term election, elevated crude oil prices, and concerns about the AI investment outlook are negative issues. 
November and December are, interestingly, the good months in the last five years. Aggressive players may buy back after a possible plunge in October.


HK Strategy: The Forthcoming Black October?

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>All major global OTAs declined in value today (4 Feb) due to a brief escalation between the US and Iran and fears of slowing consumer demand, triggering risk aversion.  </li>
<li>Fundamentals remain intact, with booking trends and earnings remaining healthy, signalling a macro reset rather than demand weakness.</li>
<li>Use the pullback as a trading opportunity: accumulate Booking Holdings and Trip.com on valuation-led weakness, while staying underweight Airbnb, MakeMyTrip, and Tripadvisor given their stretched valuations.</li>
</ul>


All major global OTAs declined in value today (4 Feb) due to a brief escalation between the US and Iran and fears of slowing consumer demand, triggering risk aversion.  
Fundamentals remain intact, with booking trends and earnings remaining healthy, signalling a macro reset rather than demand weakness.
Use the pullback as a trading opportunity: accumulate Booking Holdings and Trip.com on valuation-led weakness, while staying underweight Airbnb, MakeMyTrip, and Tripadvisor given their stretched valuations.


Global Online Travel Agent (OTA): Macro De-Rating Creates Selective Entry Points in Travel Platforms

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Amid the uncertainty surrounding the trade negotiations, Asian economies will have to provide fiscal and monetary boost to their domestic economies. They can't rely on exports to sustain their growth.</li>
<li>Asian economies shall likely provide more monetary stimuli than fiscal. Rapidly declining inflation affords their central banks larger wiggle room. China, Korea India, Indonesia, Philippines have room to cut rates.</li>
<li>Fiscal stimulus is more contentious. China and Indonesia have articulated targets of expanding fiscal deficit and public debt. Korea's low public debt and low bond yield affords some fiscal room. </li>
</ul>


Amid the uncertainty surrounding the trade negotiations, Asian economies will have to provide fiscal and monetary boost to their domestic economies. They can't rely on exports to sustain their growth.
Asian economies shall likely provide more monetary stimuli than fiscal. Rapidly declining inflation affords their central banks larger wiggle room. China, Korea India, Indonesia, Philippines have room to cut rates.
Fiscal stimulus is more contentious. China and Indonesia have articulated targets of expanding fiscal deficit and public debt. Korea's low public debt and low bond yield affords some fiscal room. 


Asian Equities: More Policy Stimuli Coming. Watch Out for China, Korea, India and ASEAN Pockets

<ul>
<li>Various statistics suggested that China's tourism and hospitality industry has staged a significant recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with traffic surging high double-digit.</li>
<li>While consumers are more cautious about retail product spending, they are willing to spend more on traveling. Such a trend will continue to bode well for the sector.</li>
<li>We like OTAs including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> despite their YTD surge in share prices. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a> stays as the top pick.</li>
</ul>


Various statistics suggested that China's tourism and hospitality industry has staged a significant recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with traffic surging high double-digit.
While consumers are more cautious about retail product spending, they are willing to spend more on traveling. Such a trend will continue to bode well for the sector.
We like OTAs including Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) and Trip.com (9961 HK) despite their YTD surge in share prices. Meanwhile, Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) stays as the top pick.


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following two periods of profitability, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the close on 5 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> is also an add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>


Following two periods of profitability, Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 December.

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is also an add to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for Alibaba (9988 HK) at the December rebalance.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Singapore

Trip.com Group is a leading global one-stop travel platform offering accommodation reservations, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, and corporate travel management services. It operates a portfolio of brands including Trip.com, Ctrip, Skyscanner, and Qunar. The company was founded in June 1999 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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Trip.com Group (9961 HK)

HK Strategy: The Forthcoming Black October?

With the HSI losing 2.5% so far today (the first trading day of Oct), it will be interesting to boomerang this Insight. Based on historical...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Global Online Travel Agent (OTA): Macro De-Rating Creates Selective Entry Points in Travel Platforms

OTA weakness reflects macro and geopolitical noise, not fundamentals. Buy Booking Holdings and Trip.com on the dip; stay underweight Airbnb,...

Mo Aziz

Asian Equities: More Policy Stimuli Coming. Watch Out for China, Korea, India and ASEAN Pockets

CPI & core inflation are nosediving in APAC barring Japan, indicating weak consumption demand. The latest is India's CPI at 1.55%. Policy stimulus ...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY

China's tourism industry sees a strong recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with a high double-digit traffic surge. OTAs like Tongcheng and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Innovent Bio is an add in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn. Innovent Bio has also been added to the HSCEI,...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Strategy: The Forthcoming Black October?

With the HSI losing 2.5% so far today (the first trading day of Oct), it will be interesting to boomerang this Insight. Based on historical...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Global Online Travel Agent (OTA): Macro De-Rating Creates Selective Entry Points in Travel Platforms

OTA weakness reflects macro and geopolitical noise, not fundamentals. Buy Booking Holdings and Trip.com on the dip; stay underweight Airbnb,...

Mo Aziz

Asian Equities: More Policy Stimuli Coming. Watch Out for China, Korea, India and ASEAN Pockets

CPI & core inflation are nosediving in APAC barring Japan, indicating weak consumption demand. The latest is India's CPI at 1.55%. Policy stimulus ...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY

​China's tourism industry sees a strong recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with a high double-digit traffic surge. OTAs like Tongcheng and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Innovent Bio is an add in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn. Innovent Bio has also been added to the HSCEI,...

Brian Freitas

China's tourism industry sees a strong recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with a high double-digit traffic surge. OTAs like Tongcheng and...