HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The upcoming Chinese New Year travel rush is expected to see air passenger volume reach 80m, a 9.8% increase vs. 2019. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> is a key beneficiary.</li>
<li>In addition to air ticket booking, Tongcheng can gain from demand for related services and products. The focus on lower-tier cities will make it better satisfy their demand. </li>
<li>Its FY24F PER of 15.2x is lower than sector average of 16.4x, yet 3-year EPS CAGR of 30.7% is higher. Its underperformance against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> can be reversed.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming Chinese New Year travel rush is expected to see air passenger volume reach 80m, a 9.8% increase vs. 2019. Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is a key beneficiary.
In addition to air ticket booking, Tongcheng can gain from demand for related services and products. The focus on lower-tier cities will make it better satisfy their demand. 
Its FY24F PER of 15.2x is lower than sector average of 16.4x, yet 3-year EPS CAGR of 30.7% is higher. Its underperformance against Trip.com (TCOM US) can be reversed.


Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>The stock plunged in January when SAMR launched an antitrust investigation against TCOM.</li>
<li>We expect that the investigation will end in August 2026 and we recommend to accumulate the stock after 1Q25 results.</li>
<li>We believe TCOM’s market share will reduce below 50%, but the company can still remain profitable and the No. 1 market position.</li>
</ul>


The stock plunged in January when SAMR launched an antitrust investigation against TCOM.
We expect that the investigation will end in August 2026 and we recommend to accumulate the stock after 1Q25 results.
We believe TCOM’s market share will reduce below 50%, but the company can still remain profitable and the No. 1 market position.


Trip.com (TCOM, 9961 HK): When to Rally After Plunge for Antitrust Investigation

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The elevated crude oil prices are expected to drive persistent inflationary pressure, and this will benefit high dividend yield stocks.</li>
<li>The top 10 high-yield HSI constituents have an average dividend yield of 6.7% for CY26. Since the War, they have outperformed the Index by an average of 1.1pp.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom HK (762 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:872:1" rel="noopener">Link REIT (823 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tingyi-cayman-islands-holding-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14016:1" rel="noopener">Tingyi Holding (322 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a> are at the top of the list.</li>
</ul>


The elevated crude oil prices are expected to drive persistent inflationary pressure, and this will benefit high dividend yield stocks.
The top 10 high-yield HSI constituents have an average dividend yield of 6.7% for CY26. Since the War, they have outperformed the Index by an average of 1.1pp.

China Unicom HK (762 HK), China Mobile (941 HK), Link REIT (823 HK), Tingyi Holding (322 HK), and China Hongqiao (1378 HK) are at the top of the list.


HK Strategy: Winners of Potentially Higher Inflation

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>TOP STORIES In Depth: China Looks to ‘Experience Economy’ for a Consumption Lift Chinese travelers are no longer content to simply admire scenic views — they want an experience.</li><li>The shift was evident during the Lunar New Year holiday in February.</li><li>Keyword searches for “intangible cultural heritage” and “folk customs” on e-commerce platform Meituan jumped 34% and 30% year-on-year.</li></ul>

TOP STORIES In Depth: China Looks to ‘Experience Economy’ for a Consumption Lift Chinese travelers are no longer content to simply admire scenic views — they want an experience.The shift was evident during the Lunar New Year holiday in February.Keyword searches for “intangible cultural heritage” and “folk customs” on e-commerce platform Meituan jumped 34% and 30% year-on-year.

CX Daily: China Looks to ‘Experience Economy’ for a Consumption Lift 

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 25th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Zijin Gold Intl, Alibaba, CCB, Trip.Com, Meituan, BOC, Wuxi Apptec, Wanguo Gold Gp.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 25th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Zijin Gold Intl, Alibaba, CCB, Trip.Com, Meituan, BOC, Wuxi Apptec, Wanguo Gold Gp.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Zijin Gold Intl, Alibaba, CCB, Trip.Com, Meituan, BOC, Wuxi Apptec

Singapore

Trip.com Group is a leading global one-stop travel platform offering accommodation reservations, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, and corporate travel management services. It operates a portfolio of brands including Trip.com, Ctrip, Skyscanner, and Qunar. The company was founded in June 1999 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Trip.com Group (9961 HK)

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): We Are Back

CNY travel rush is expected to boost air passenger volume by 9.8% vs. 2019, benefiting Tongcheng. Its focus on lower-tier cities and strong EPS...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Trip.com (TCOM, 9961 HK): When to Rally After Plunge for Antitrust Investigation

We expect that the antitrust investigation will end in August 2026. We believe TCOM’s market share will decline, but the company can keep its No. 1...

Ming Lu

HK Strategy: Winners of Potentially Higher Inflation

Elevated crude oil prices are driving inflation, benefiting high dividend yield HSI constituent stocks like China Unicom, China Mobile, Link REIT,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CX Daily: China Looks to ‘Experience Economy’ for a Consumption Lift

TOP STORIES In Depth: China Looks to ‘Experience Economy’ for a Consumption Lift Chinese travelers are no longer content to simply admire scenic...

Caixin Global

HK Short Interest Weekly: Zijin Gold Intl, Alibaba, CCB, Trip.Com, Meituan, BOC, Wuxi Apptec

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 25th and highlight short interest changes in Zijin Gold Intl (2259 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): We Are Back

CNY travel rush is expected to boost air passenger volume by 9.8% vs. 2019, benefiting Tongcheng. Its focus on lower-tier cities and strong EPS...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Trip.com (TCOM, 9961 HK): When to Rally After Plunge for Antitrust Investigation

We expect that the antitrust investigation will end in August 2026. We believe TCOM’s market share will decline, but the company can keep its No. 1...

Ming Lu

HK Strategy: Winners of Potentially Higher Inflation

​Elevated crude oil prices are driving inflation, benefiting high dividend yield HSI constituent stocks like China Unicom, China Mobile, Link REIT,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CX Daily: China Looks to ‘Experience Economy’ for a Consumption Lift

TOP STORIES In Depth: China Looks to ‘Experience Economy’ for a Consumption Lift Chinese travelers are no longer content to simply admire scenic...

Caixin Global

HK Short Interest Weekly: Zijin Gold Intl, Alibaba, CCB, Trip.Com, Meituan, BOC, Wuxi Apptec

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 25th and highlight short interest changes in Zijin Gold Intl (2259 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Elevated crude oil prices are driving inflation, benefiting high dividend yield HSI constituent stocks like China Unicom, China Mobile, Link REIT,...