Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...</li>
<li>We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.</li>
<li>Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...
We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.
Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Nvidia's 2QFY27 earnings beat expectations by 6%, with EPS of USD2.22 (1.2x YoY), while the company expects FY2028 revenue to grow 70% YoY, underscoring the strength of Al investment.</li><li>Efforts by Iran and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have eased concerns over global oil supply, pushing Brent crude down to USD85/bbl.</li><li>The MPC kept the policy rate unchanged at 1.0%, as expected, and signaled that rates are likely to remain on hold.</li></ul>

Nvidia's 2QFY27 earnings beat expectations by 6%, with EPS of USD2.22 (1.2x YoY), while the company expects FY2028 revenue to grow 70% YoY, underscoring the strength of Al investment.Efforts by Iran and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have eased concerns over global oil supply, pushing Brent crude down to USD85/bbl.The MPC kept the policy rate unchanged at 1.0%, as expected, and signaled that rates are likely to remain on hold.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 27, 2026

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Despite the surrounding factors urging the MPC to reduce its policy interest rate, the committee's decision-making seems anchored in an outlook-dependent approach.</li><li>Consequently, KTX views that the MPC may be inclined to resist cutting the policy interest rate, contrary to market expectations, until there is more clarity regarding the Digital Wallet scheme.</li><li>This positive development may influence the MPC to maintain the policy interest rate at 2.5% throughout 2024E, preserving policy space in case of a potential economic slowdown.</li></ul>

Despite the surrounding factors urging the MPC to reduce its policy interest rate, the committee's decision-making seems anchored in an outlook-dependent approach.Consequently, KTX views that the MPC may be inclined to resist cutting the policy interest rate, contrary to market expectations, until there is more clarity regarding the Digital Wallet scheme.This positive development may influence the MPC to maintain the policy interest rate at 2.5% throughout 2024E, preserving policy space in case of a potential economic slowdown.

MPC May Maintain Policy Interest Rate Pending Clarity Concerning Digital Wallet Scheme

<ul><li>Iraq is accelerating the expansion of its oil export routes, pushing exports up to 2mn bbl/day and putting downward pressure on crude oil prices.</li><li>US retail sales in July contracted 0.6% MoM, reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate hike and supporting further baht appreciation against the US dollar.</li><li>The BOI reported that actual investment in 2Q26 surged 31% YoY to more than Bt255bn, led by AI-related industries.</li></ul>

Iraq is accelerating the expansion of its oil export routes, pushing exports up to 2mn bbl/day and putting downward pressure on crude oil prices.US retail sales in July contracted 0.6% MoM, reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate hike and supporting further baht appreciation against the US dollar.The BOI reported that actual investment in 2Q26 surged 31% YoY to more than Bt255bn, led by AI-related industries.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 17, 2026

Thailand

True Corporation Public Company Limited is a communications conglomerate in Thailand that provides telecommunications and value-added services. The company offers mobile, broadband Internet, Wi-Fi, and television services, alongside digital platforms and solutions. True Corporation is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1990.

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True (TRUEE TB)

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 27, 2026

Nvidia's 2QFY27 earnings beat expectations by 6%, with EPS of USD2.22 (1.2x YoY), while the company expects FY2028 revenue to grow 70% YoY,...

Krungthai XSpring

MPC May Maintain Policy Interest Rate Pending Clarity Concerning Digital Wallet Scheme

Despite the surrounding factors urging the MPC to reduce its policy interest rate, the committee's decision-making seems anchored in an...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 17, 2026

Iraq is accelerating the expansion of its oil export routes, pushing exports up to 2mn bbl/day and putting downward pressure on crude oil...

Krungthai XSpring

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