Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After the accelerated transition to digital channels during Covid, the fashion sector had a calmer year in 2022 although GTVs still grew around 10%. </li>
<li>Most retailers spent the time investing in more seamless and coherent omnichannel models, and in making the best use of stores and staff in online promotions.</li>
<li>This shift to omnichannel is also leading to changing merchandising, including pre-selling inventory, while others are turning their online stores into malls. </li>
</ul>


After the accelerated transition to digital channels during Covid, the fashion sector had a calmer year in 2022 although GTVs still grew around 10%. 
Most retailers spent the time investing in more seamless and coherent omnichannel models, and in making the best use of stores and staff in online promotions.
This shift to omnichannel is also leading to changing merchandising, including pre-selling inventory, while others are turning their online stores into malls. 


Japan's Fashion E-Commerce Evolving into Dynamic and Seamless Omnichannel, Winners Will Take All

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Elliott Management was noted several weeks ago to have bought near 5% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-nippon-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19388:1" rel="noopener">Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP)</a>. The stock popped when people found out.  </li>
<li>Then the stock popped when the company said they'd announce the outline for their new Mid-Term Management Plan on 9 March, and that would include more capital allocation measures.</li>
<li>Today we got the Outline. There are more capital allocation measures. The numbers look big. Nuance is required to understand the impacts over time.</li>
</ul>


Elliott Management was noted several weeks ago to have bought near 5% of Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP). The stock popped when people found out.  
Then the stock popped when the company said they'd announce the outline for their new Mid-Term Management Plan on 9 March, and that would include more capital allocation measures.
Today we got the Outline. There are more capital allocation measures. The numbers look big. Nuance is required to understand the impacts over time.


Dai Nippon Printing (7912) - Whoop There It Is! ¥100bn Buyback in a Year, ¥300bn in 3yrs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Last April I wrote about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19259:1" rel="noopener">Tsi Holdings (3608 JP)</a> which was trading at 0.5x EV/EBITDA and where I suggested it could double in 2-3yrs. </li>
<li>The day after I wrote, the stock closed at ¥312/share, briefly touched ¥480 before ending the year at ¥444. On Friday they announced Q3 earnings, now TTM EV/EBITDA is 2.5x.</li>
<li>They also announced a buyback, and the stock is up further. It is worth looking into the details both near-term and what they mean longer-term.</li>
</ul>


Last April I wrote about Tsi Holdings (3608 JP) which was trading at 0.5x EV/EBITDA and where I suggested it could double in 2-3yrs. 
The day after I wrote, the stock closed at ¥312/share, briefly touched ¥480 before ending the year at ¥444. On Friday they announced Q3 earnings, now TTM EV/EBITDA is 2.5x.
They also announced a buyback, and the stock is up further. It is worth looking into the details both near-term and what they mean longer-term.


TSI Holdings (3608) - New Year, New Buyback, Still Good, Still Cheap

<ul>
<li>Adastria's growth has been sporadic in recent years as it adjusts to maturity and saturation in core apparel markets.It has diversification projects but these will take time to develop.</li>
<li>It thinks it can find faster growth by franchising and licensing with already well-known brands, starting with Forever 21.</li>
<li>It also has a new business providing apparel collections to General Merchandise Retailers, starting with Izumi.</li>
</ul>


Adastria's growth has been sporadic in recent years as it adjusts to maturity and saturation in core apparel markets.It has diversification projects but these will take time to develop.
It thinks it can find faster growth by franchising and licensing with already well-known brands, starting with Forever 21.
It also has a new business providing apparel collections to General Merchandise Retailers, starting with Izumi.


Adastria Signs Forever 21, New Growth Through Licensing?

<ul>
<li>Sanyo Shokai has posted losses in every year since FY2016 despite promising a return to profit on an annual basis too.</li>
<li>Its latest 3-year plan is typically optimistic but, equally typically, lacks real substance as to just where this growth will come from.</li>
<li>Of all Japan's larger apparel firms, Sanyo Shokai has the least promising outlook and that is saying something.</li>
</ul>


Sanyo Shokai has posted losses in every year since FY2016 despite promising a return to profit on an annual basis too.
Its latest 3-year plan is typically optimistic but, equally typically, lacks real substance as to just where this growth will come from.
Of all Japan's larger apparel firms, Sanyo Shokai has the least promising outlook and that is saying something.


Japan

TSI Holdings Company Ltd. manufactures men's and women's clothing, and retails women's clothing.  The Company produces and sells coats, dresses, suits, sweaters, shirts, skirts, and pants.

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Tsi Holdings (3608 JP)

Japan's Fashion E-Commerce Evolving into Dynamic and Seamless Omnichannel, Winners Will Take All

Japan's fashion e-commerce sector offers major growth stories among both online malls and physical retailers making a successful transition to...

Michael Causton

Dai Nippon Printing (7912) - Whoop There It Is! ¥100bn Buyback in a Year, ¥300bn in 3yrs

DNP (7912) has announced the capital allocation measures they said they would. The headline numbers are big. ¥300bn of buybacks over 3yrs. 70+% of...

Travis Lundy

TSI Holdings (3608) - New Year, New Buyback, Still Good, Still Cheap

TSI Holdings has been "cheap" since Murakami-san took on its predecessor twenty years ago. The company is now buying back stock. That's great news....

Travis Lundy

Adastria Signs Forever 21, New Growth Through Licensing?

Adastria has suffered from inconsistent growth recently as it adjusted to maturity and the pandemic but has come up with two new growth ideas:...

Michael Causton

Sanyo Shokai: More Unfulfilled Promises

Sanyo Shokai has promised a return to profit for more than five years. There seems to be more chance than for years for this to happen but it...

Michael Causton

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