China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ol><li>Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official numbers indicate.</li><li>Large retailers appear to be suffering near zero growth across a variety of products.</li><li>Online retailing is still growing rapidly but its rate of growth is slowing and remains responsible for only 10.6% of spending.</li><li>Due to the weakness in large retailers and strong but small market share of online retailers, this leaves only small and medium size retailers as driving official retail sales numbers. We find this a dubious conclusion.</li><li>The combined retail sales and physical output of consumer product data implies that retail and consumer spending is growing much closer to the 3-6% range than the official 11% retail sales growth.</li><li>Related services like transport and hotel is showing significant weakness that is more reflective of an overall weak retail and services sector.</li></ol>

Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official numbers indicate.Large retailers appear to be suffering near zero growth across a variety of products.Online retailing is still growing rapidly but its rate of growth is slowing and remains responsible for only 10.6% of spending.Due to the weakness in large retailers and strong but small market share of online retailers, this leaves only small and medium size retailers as driving official retail sales numbers. We find this a dubious conclusion.The combined retail sales and physical output of consumer product data implies that retail and consumer spending is growing much closer to the 3-6% range than the official 11% retail sales growth.Related services like transport and hotel is showing significant weakness that is more reflective of an overall weak retail and services sector.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Suntien Green Energy / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH Premia continues to trend slightly higher on average (see first chart below). Bumpy, but AH premia are up 3 of last four trading weeks. Quiddity Portfolio Alpha continues positive.</li>
<li>There continue to be some really big moves on pairs. This past week it was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-suntien-green-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17269:1" rel="noopener">China Suntien Green Energy (956 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/datang-international-power-generation-company-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3664:1" rel="noopener">Datang International (991 HK)</a> - both widened sharply.</li>
<li>The data tables below update daily in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southbound Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free for all SK readers. Recently used tools are now sticky.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia continues to trend slightly higher on average (see first chart below). Bumpy, but AH premia are up 3 of last four trading weeks. Quiddity Portfolio Alpha continues positive.
There continue to be some really big moves on pairs. This past week it was China Suntien Green Energy (956 HK) and Datang International (991 HK) - both widened sharply.
The data tables below update daily in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free for all SK readers. Recently used tools are now sticky.


A/H Premium Tracker (2 Wks to 13 Mar 26); AH Wider Again - Pharmas & Tech Too Wide

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO in March 2025. The lockup on its founders and pre-IPO investors is set to expire today.</li>
<li>MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO in March 2025. The lockup on its founders and pre-IPO investors is set to expire today.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: MIXUE IPO Lockup - US$1.8bn Pre-IPO Shareholder Release

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 30th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Alibaba (9988 HK), AIA (2318 HK), Sinopec (386 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 30th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Alibaba (9988 HK), AIA (2318 HK), Sinopec (386 HK).


HK Short Interest Weekly: Alibaba, AIA, Sinopec, CATL

Equity Capital Markets

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food / Equity Capital Markets

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foshan-haitian-flavouring-food-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44279:1" rel="noopener">Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food Company (3288 HK)</a>, China’s leading condiments company, raised around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>FHCC is China’s leading condiments company within its main product categories of soy sauce, oyster sauce, flavored sauce, specialty condiment products and other products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food Company (3288 HK), China’s leading condiments company, raised around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
FHCC is China’s leading condiments company within its main product categories of soy sauce, oyster sauce, flavored sauce, specialty condiment products and other products.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Foshan Haitian Flavouring A/H IPO Lockup - US$500m Cornerstone Release

China

Tsingtao Brewery Co., Ltd. is a major Chinese brewery engaged in the production and distribution of beer products, including its flagship Tsingtao Beer, Laoshan Beer, and other varieties. It is one of the earliest breweries in China, founded in 1903, and is currently the sixth largest brewer in the world. The company is headquartered in Qingdao, Shandong, China.

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Tsingtao Brewery (168 HK)

Retail and Consumer Activity in China

Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official...

Christopher Balding

A/H Premium Tracker (2 Wks to 13 Mar 26); AH Wider Again - Pharmas & Tech Too Wide

AH Premia continue to drift gently higher. Overall, spreads are middle of the last 52wk range but some are getting very wide again.

Travis Lundy

Aequitas: MIXUE IPO Lockup - US$1.8bn Pre-IPO Shareholder Release

Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO in March 2025. The lockup on its founders and pre-IPO investors is set to expire...

Sumeet Singh

HK Short Interest Weekly: Alibaba, AIA, Sinopec, CATL

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 30th and highlight short interest changes in Alibaba, AIA, Sinopec, CATL.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Foshan Haitian Flavouring A/H IPO Lockup - US$500m Cornerstone Release

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (3288 HK), China’s leading condiments company, raised around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing. The lockup...

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

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