Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>June revenue NT$442.68bn (+67.9% YoY, +6.2% MoM). Implied Q2 2026 revenue ~US$39.63bn (+36% YoY), landing at the midpoint of TSMC's own guidance, ahead of 16 July earnings.</li>
<li>This matches our Q2-26E model (~US$39.6bn) and confirms Pillar III demand compounding. A sector-wide chip selloff on the same day is unrelated — a rotation dip, not a TSMC-specific signal.</li>
<li>We remain Bullish with FV of NT$3,230 / US$510 (+18%) reiterated, anchored on 22x FY26E EV/EBITDA and structural AI-monopoly economics; gross margin confirmation on 16 July is the re-rating trigger.</li>
</ul>


June revenue NT$442.68bn (+67.9% YoY, +6.2% MoM). Implied Q2 2026 revenue ~US$39.63bn (+36% YoY), landing at the midpoint of TSMC's own guidance, ahead of 16 July earnings.
This matches our Q2-26E model (~US$39.6bn) and confirms Pillar III demand compounding. A sector-wide chip selloff on the same day is unrelated — a rotation dip, not a TSMC-specific signal.
We remain Bullish with FV of NT$3,230 / US$510 (+18%) reiterated, anchored on 22x FY26E EV/EBITDA and structural AI-monopoly economics; gross margin confirmation on 16 July is the re-rating trigger.


TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — June Revenue Update: Base Case Confirmed, Margin Reality Check on 16 Jul

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

<ul>
<li>Micron, Apple and AMD committed a combined US$43bn-plus to the suppliers they depend on, moving the industry from ordering capacity to financing it and shifting build risk onto the buyers.</li>
<li>Memory economics reached record levels: Samsung's operating profit rose 19x, and Nanya's gross margin hit 79.5% on flat shipments, with prices doing all the work.</li>
<li>SK Hynix raised US$26.5bn for ADRs in the largest US listing by a foreign company, and the week's selloff reversed in two sessions as money returned to memory and compute.</li>
</ul>


Micron, Apple and AMD committed a combined US$43bn-plus to the suppliers they depend on, moving the industry from ordering capacity to financing it and shifting build risk onto the buyers.
Memory economics reached record levels: Samsung's operating profit rose 19x, and Nanya's gross margin hit 79.5% on flat shipments, with prices doing all the work.
SK Hynix raised US$26.5bn for ADRs in the largest US listing by a foreign company, and the week's selloff reversed in two sessions as money returned to memory and compute.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron, Apple and AMD Start Funding Their Suppliers

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Over 2024 and 2025, Asia-ex-Japan equities are up c30%. During this period, the 12-month forward EPS has expanded only 5.6%. Forward EPS recovery is essential to take the market higher.</li>
<li>Over the medium to long term, share prices track earnings, as we notice in our long-term analysis of forward EPS trajectory and market movement. Disjoint movements usually mean revert quickly.</li>
<li>Forward EPS could move up further in China, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Hong Kong has overshot its forward EPS trajectory. Philippines has massively undershot. Other markets appear broadly in line.</li>
</ul>


Over 2024 and 2025, Asia-ex-Japan equities are up c30%. During this period, the 12-month forward EPS has expanded only 5.6%. Forward EPS recovery is essential to take the market higher.
Over the medium to long term, share prices track earnings, as we notice in our long-term analysis of forward EPS trajectory and market movement. Disjoint movements usually mean revert quickly.
Forward EPS could move up further in China, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Hong Kong has overshot its forward EPS trajectory. Philippines has massively undershot. Other markets appear broadly in line.


Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?

<ul>
<li>Amid the uncertainty surrounding the trade negotiations, Asian economies will have to provide fiscal and monetary boost to their domestic economies. They can't rely on exports to sustain their growth.</li>
<li>Asian economies shall likely provide more monetary stimuli than fiscal. Rapidly declining inflation affords their central banks larger wiggle room. China, Korea India, Indonesia, Philippines have room to cut rates.</li>
<li>Fiscal stimulus is more contentious. China and Indonesia have articulated targets of expanding fiscal deficit and public debt. Korea's low public debt and low bond yield affords some fiscal room. </li>
</ul>


Amid the uncertainty surrounding the trade negotiations, Asian economies will have to provide fiscal and monetary boost to their domestic economies. They can't rely on exports to sustain their growth.
Asian economies shall likely provide more monetary stimuli than fiscal. Rapidly declining inflation affords their central banks larger wiggle room. China, Korea India, Indonesia, Philippines have room to cut rates.
Fiscal stimulus is more contentious. China and Indonesia have articulated targets of expanding fiscal deficit and public debt. Korea's low public debt and low bond yield affords some fiscal room. 


Asian Equities: More Policy Stimuli Coming. Watch Out for China, Korea, India and ASEAN Pockets

<ul>
<li>A glance at the growth-adjusted valuations of the Asian markets reveals that Korea and China are undervalued and India, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia are overvalued.</li>
<li>We take a granular look at long histories of each market’s relative valuations, and their medium-term trends relative to long term averages. We combine the conclusions with growth-adjusted valuation outlook.</li>
<li>We conclude that HK/China, Korea, Indonesia and Philippines could be in for rerating in the near term. Derating could be on the cards for India, Singapore and Thailand.</li>
</ul>


A glance at the growth-adjusted valuations of the Asian markets reveals that Korea and China are undervalued and India, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia are overvalued.
We take a granular look at long histories of each market’s relative valuations, and their medium-term trends relative to long term averages. We combine the conclusions with growth-adjusted valuation outlook.
We conclude that HK/China, Korea, Indonesia and Philippines could be in for rerating in the near term. Derating could be on the cards for India, Singapore and Thailand.


Asian Equities: Relative Valuation Divergence Opens up Index Trade Opportunities

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — June Revenue Update: Base Case Confirmed, Margin Reality Check on 16 Jul

June revenue lands at guidance midpoint, confirming base case. Sector sells off regardless. Fair Value NT$3,230/US$510 (+18%) reiterated — Bullish...

Mo Aziz

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron, Apple and AMD Start Funding Their Suppliers

Tech giants like Micron, Apple, and AMD are investing billions in their suppliers, shifting industry dynamics and pushing memory economics to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?

Asia-ex-Japan equities have surged, but forward EPS growth is lagging. Nascent signs of EPS recovery in CN, KR, TW & TH. HK market has overshot...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: More Policy Stimuli Coming. Watch Out for China, Korea, India and ASEAN Pockets

CPI & core inflation are nosediving in APAC barring Japan, indicating weak consumption demand. The latest is India's CPI at 1.55%. Policy stimulus ...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Relative Valuation Divergence Opens up Index Trade Opportunities

Considering growth & ROE adjusted valns & long history of relative valns of Asian markets, we think HK/CN, Korea, Indonesia & Philippines could...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

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TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — June Revenue Update: Base Case Confirmed, Margin Reality Check on 16 Jul

June revenue lands at guidance midpoint, confirming base case. Sector sells off regardless. Fair Value NT$3,230/US$510 (+18%) reiterated — Bullish...

Mo Aziz

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron, Apple and AMD Start Funding Their Suppliers

​Tech giants like Micron, Apple, and AMD are investing billions in their suppliers, shifting industry dynamics and pushing memory economics to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?

​Asia-ex-Japan equities have surged, but forward EPS growth is lagging. Nascent signs of EPS recovery in CN, KR, TW & TH. HK market has overshot...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: More Policy Stimuli Coming. Watch Out for China, Korea, India and ASEAN Pockets

CPI & core inflation are nosediving in APAC barring Japan, indicating weak consumption demand. The latest is India's CPI at 1.55%. Policy stimulus ...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Relative Valuation Divergence Opens up Index Trade Opportunities

​Considering growth & ROE adjusted valns & long history of relative valns of Asian markets, we think HK/CN, Korea, Indonesia & Philippines could...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Tech giants like Micron, Apple, and AMD are investing billions in their suppliers, shifting industry dynamics and pushing memory economics to...

Asia-ex-Japan equities have surged, but forward EPS growth is lagging. Nascent signs of EPS recovery in CN, KR, TW & TH. HK market has overshot...

Considering growth & ROE adjusted valns & long history of relative valns of Asian markets, we think HK/CN, Korea, Indonesia & Philippines could...