Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — Q2 2026 Results: Beat & Raise Guidance = Raise Fair Value to NT$3,450

SK Hynix (000660KS, SKHY US) — 29 July Judgment Day: Q2 Preview and the Premium's Date with Gravity

TSMC Q226. You Put All The Truth Together, It's Not The Truth

TSMC (2330 TT) What Can Go Wrong: A Tail-Risk Framework for the World's Most Important Stock

TSMC (2330 TW, TSN US) — Initiate with a BUY: Unchallengeable Monopoly, Moat, and the AI Backbone

TSMC (2330 TT) 1Q26 Results: AI Drives Record Margins, Management Raises Guidance

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>June revenue NT$442.68bn (+67.9% YoY, +6.2% MoM). Implied Q2 2026 revenue ~US$39.63bn (+36% YoY), landing at the midpoint of TSMC's own guidance, ahead of 16 July earnings.</li>
<li>This matches our Q2-26E model (~US$39.6bn) and confirms Pillar III demand compounding. A sector-wide chip selloff on the same day is unrelated — a rotation dip, not a TSMC-specific signal.</li>
<li>We remain Bullish with FV of NT$3,230 / US$510 (+18%) reiterated, anchored on 22x FY26E EV/EBITDA and structural AI-monopoly economics; gross margin confirmation on 16 July is the re-rating trigger.</li>
</ul>


June revenue NT$442.68bn (+67.9% YoY, +6.2% MoM). Implied Q2 2026 revenue ~US$39.63bn (+36% YoY), landing at the midpoint of TSMC's own guidance, ahead of 16 July earnings.
This matches our Q2-26E model (~US$39.6bn) and confirms Pillar III demand compounding. A sector-wide chip selloff on the same day is unrelated — a rotation dip, not a TSMC-specific signal.
We remain Bullish with FV of NT$3,230 / US$510 (+18%) reiterated, anchored on 22x FY26E EV/EBITDA and structural AI-monopoly economics; gross margin confirmation on 16 July is the re-rating trigger.


TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — June Revenue Update: Base Case Confirmed, Margin Reality Check on 16 Jul