Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

TSMC (2330 TW, TSN US) — Initiate with a BUY: Unchallengeable Monopoly, Moat, and the AI Backbone

Semiconductor Foundry Handbook 2026 — One Monopoly, Two Disconnected Valuations

TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — June Revenue Update: Base Case Confirmed, Margin Reality Check on 16 Jul

TSMC (2330 TT) 1Q26 Results: AI Drives Record Margins, Management Raises Guidance

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC's bull case is at 24x forward P/E. Four non-earnings tail risks — coercion, AI capex reversal, Samsung recovery, and concentration — could reprice 20–60% with zero fundamental change.</li>
<li>Hyperscaler AI capex tripled in two years to ~US$725bn. TSMC's fixed-cost base amplifies any deceleration non-linearly: a 20% capex slowdown translates to a ~17–25% EPS miss, not a 20% miss.</li>
<li>The FSC concentration rule change is a medium-term systemic risk, not a catalyst. Domestic funds now legally 25% in one name — amplifying every drawdown scenario rather than providing support.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's bull case is at 24x forward P/E. Four non-earnings tail risks — coercion, AI capex reversal, Samsung recovery, and concentration — could reprice 20–60% with zero fundamental change.
Hyperscaler AI capex tripled in two years to ~US$725bn. TSMC's fixed-cost base amplifies any deceleration non-linearly: a 20% capex slowdown translates to a ~17–25% EPS miss, not a 20% miss.
The FSC concentration rule change is a medium-term systemic risk, not a catalyst. Domestic funds now legally 25% in one name — amplifying every drawdown scenario rather than providing support.


TSMC (2330 TT) What Can Go Wrong: A Tail-Risk Framework for the World's Most Important Stock