Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Semiconductor Foundry Handbook 2026 — One Monopoly, Two Disconnected Valuations

TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — June Revenue Update: Base Case Confirmed, Margin Reality Check on 16 Jul

TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — Q2 2026 Results: Beat & Raise Guidance = Raise Fair Value to NT$3,450

TSMC (2330 TT) What Can Go Wrong: A Tail-Risk Framework for the World's Most Important Stock

TSMC (2330 TT) 1Q26 Results: AI Drives Record Margins, Management Raises Guidance

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Sole supplier of every advanced AI chip at volume — N2/N3 and CoWoS packaging have no qualified second source; Samsung and Intel remain unproven at scale through 2027.</li>
<li>2026 re-rating hinges on N2 revenue contribution (Q3 2026E) and CoWoS pricing power holding as capacity stays sold out through 2027 at 80% CAGR.</li>
<li>We initiate at BUY with a 12-month price target of NT$3,230 / USD 510 per ADR, applying 33x FY26E P/E.</li>
</ul>


Sole supplier of every advanced AI chip at volume — N2/N3 and CoWoS packaging have no qualified second source; Samsung and Intel remain unproven at scale through 2027.
2026 re-rating hinges on N2 revenue contribution (Q3 2026E) and CoWoS pricing power holding as capacity stays sold out through 2027 at 80% CAGR.
We initiate at BUY with a 12-month price target of NT$3,230 / USD 510 per ADR, applying 33x FY26E P/E.


TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (2330 TW, TSN US) — Initiate with a BUY: Unchallengeable Monopoly, Moat, and the AI Backbone