Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Sub-8nm foundry license mix surged from 47.6% to 79% in 1Q26, a real-time read on advanced-node platform demand across TSMC, Samsung, and the leading-edge foundry stack.</li>
<li>
A Tier-1 US foundry engagement (likely Intel Foundry or TSMC Arizona in our view) could be confirmed 2Q26, a leading indicator of which US fab attracts external fabless customers first.</li>
<li>
First 3nm royalties landed in 4Q25; sub-16nm royalty +~700% YoY in 1Q26, confirming the AI accelerator supply chain's transition to leading-edge nodes is now live.</li>
</ul>



Sub-8nm foundry license mix surged from 47.6% to 79% in 1Q26, a real-time read on advanced-node platform demand across TSMC, Samsung, and the leading-edge foundry stack.

A Tier-1 US foundry engagement (likely Intel Foundry or TSMC Arizona in our view) could be confirmed 2Q26, a leading indicator of which US fab attracts external fabless customers first.

First 3nm royalties landed in 4Q25; sub-16nm royalty +~700% YoY in 1Q26, confirming the AI accelerator supply chain's transition to leading-edge nodes is now live.


TechChain Insights Q&A: Inside TSMC, Intel and SMIC's Advanced-Node Pipeline - M31 (6643 TT)

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

On November 6'th last, at its <a href="https://www.amd.com/en/events/next-horizon" target="_blank">Next Horizon</a> event held in San Francisco, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19009" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1">Advanced Micro Devices</a> revealed further details behind its upcoming, second generation EPCY server processor, code named Rome. The event confirmed many details which had previously been leaked, including a "chiplet" architecture based on a total of eight 7nm processors, each with eight cores (for a total of 64 cores),  surrounding a 14nm I/O controller chip, all connected through a second generation Infinity Fabric and which is socket-compatible with first-generation EPYC server chips. As expected, the 7nm process in question comes from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11230" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1">Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg</a> and, according to the specs revealed during the event, it packs quite a punch compared to TSMC's previous generation 12nm process. The significance of AMD's architectural approach should not be underestimated. In our opinion it represents the only viable mechanism to continue to increase core count for server CPUs and thereby maintain the progression of Moore's Law. For its part, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16764" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1">Intel</a> has reached the end of the line with its monolithic, twenty-eight core server processor design, a fact which would appear to be confirmed by the company's pre-emptive launch two days before AMD's event of a new server processor based on two twenty-four core processors combined in a multi-chip package. In other words, Intel is following in AMD's footsteps. More on this in an upcoming Insight. With Rome, AMD has taken its server CPU architecture to a whole new level, one which sets it up to challenge Intel's server empire, and over the course of the coming two years, potentially to rule it.

On November 6'th last, at its Next Horizon event held in San Francisco, Advanced Micro Devices revealed further details behind its upcoming, second generation EPCY server processor, code named Rome. The event confirmed many details which had previously been leaked, including a "chiplet" architecture based on a total of eight 7nm processors, each with eight cores (for a total of 64 cores),  surrounding a 14nm I/O controller chip, all connected through a second generation Infinity Fabric and which is socket-compatible with first-generation EPYC server chips. As expected, the 7nm process in question comes from Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg and, according to the specs revealed during the event, it packs quite a punch compared to TSMC's previous generation 12nm process. The significance of AMD's architectural approach should not be underestimated. In our opinion it represents the only viable mechanism to continue to increase core count for server CPUs and thereby maintain the progression of Moore's Law. For its part, Intel has reached the end of the line with its monolithic, twenty-eight core server processor design, a fact which would appear to be confirmed by the company's pre-emptive launch two days before AMD's event of a new server processor based on two twenty-four core processors combined in a multi-chip package. In other words, Intel is following in AMD's footsteps. More on this in an upcoming Insight. With Rome, AMD has taken its server CPU architecture to a whole new level, one which sets it up to challenge Intel's server empire, and over the course of the coming two years, potentially to rule it. 

AMD's Rome Will Rule An Empire. A Server Empire.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>
Record 66.2% gross margin beat guidance by 120bps; management raised full-year revenue growth to "above 30%" and capex to high end of $52-56B on insatiable AI demand. </li>
<li>
Supply constraints persist through 2027 as TSMC builds three new N3 fabs globally. AI accelerator revenue CAGR reaffirmed at "higher-50s" through 2029. </li>
<li>
Supply chain scorecard: strongly positive for ASML, SK Hynix,  ASE; mixed for MediaTek and Apple; negative for Intel and Samsung  foundry competitiveness.</li>
</ul>



Record 66.2% gross margin beat guidance by 120bps; management raised full-year revenue growth to "above 30%" and capex to high end of $52-56B on insatiable AI demand. 

Supply constraints persist through 2027 as TSMC builds three new N3 fabs globally. AI accelerator revenue CAGR reaffirmed at "higher-50s" through 2029. 

Supply chain scorecard: strongly positive for ASML, SK Hynix,  ASE; mixed for MediaTek and Apple; negative for Intel and Samsung  foundry competitiveness.


TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Very impressive. 1H26 revenue growth ~35%, Operating Profits growth ~58% YoY (guidance). 1H26 Net Income growth ~54% (my estimate). Consensus will keep revising up.</li>
<li>Capacity is tight, 2026 Capex will be at high-end of guidance ($56bn), TSMC announced 3 new N3 Fabs, “doing everything” they can to speed up capacity ramp.</li>
<li>TSMC and ASML trade at +1 stdev above average. TSMC is a lot cheaper trading at 20.4x forward EPS (forward means 12 months forward or April 2027) vs ASML 40x.</li>
</ul>


Very impressive. 1H26 revenue growth ~35%, Operating Profits growth ~58% YoY (guidance). 1H26 Net Income growth ~54% (my estimate). Consensus will keep revising up.
Capacity is tight, 2026 Capex will be at high-end of guidance ($56bn), TSMC announced 3 new N3 Fabs, “doing everything” they can to speed up capacity ramp.
TSMC and ASML trade at +1 stdev above average. TSMC is a lot cheaper trading at 20.4x forward EPS (forward means 12 months forward or April 2027) vs ASML 40x.


TSMC Keeps Beating. Consensus Expects 38% EPS Growth in 2026. 1H26 EPS Growth Is Above 50% YoY.

<ul>
<li>3nm and below now accounts for 48% of total revenue, up from near-zero two years ago, as TSMC affiliate GUC becomes the go-to partner for hyperscaler custom silicon</li>
<li>Full-Year revenue grew 36% to NT$34.1bn, outpacing the broader semiconductor industry as custom AI chip demand accelerates</li>
<li>Companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta have publicly discussed or deployed custom chips for AI inference and training, and GUC's results suggest these programs are reaching meaningful volume.</li>
</ul>


3nm and below now accounts for 48% of total revenue, up from near-zero two years ago, as TSMC affiliate GUC becomes the go-to partner for hyperscaler custom silicon
Full-Year revenue grew 36% to NT$34.1bn, outpacing the broader semiconductor industry as custom AI chip demand accelerates
Companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta have publicly discussed or deployed custom chips for AI inference and training, and GUC's results suggest these programs are reaching meaningful volume.


GUC's 3nm Breakout Quarter Reveals How Taiwan's ASIC Leaders Are Capturing AI Chip Demand

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TechChain Insights Q&A: Inside TSMC, Intel and SMIC's Advanced-Node Pipeline - M31 (6643 TT)

Advanced-node platform demand on the rise, with sub-8nm licenses dominating 1Q26. Tier-1 US foundry engagement could be confirmed 2Q26, signaling...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

AMD's Rome Will Rule An Empire. A Server Empire.

it's hard to believe that it's been almost eight years since I wrote this piece! On a day like today, with AMD's latest report fresh off the...

William Keating

TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Keeps Beating. Consensus Expects 38% EPS Growth in 2026. 1H26 EPS Growth Is Above 50% YoY.

Impressive revenue and profit growth for TSMC, tight capacity leading to high Capex and new fabs, TSMC trading cheaper than ASML.

Nicolas Baratte

GUC's 3nm Breakout Quarter Reveals How Taiwan's ASIC Leaders Are Capturing AI Chip Demand

TSMC affiliate GUC sees surge in revenue from hyperscaler custom silicon, driven by demand for custom AI chips from tech giants like Amazon and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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TechChain Insights Q&A: Inside TSMC, Intel and SMIC's Advanced-Node Pipeline - M31 (6643 TT)

Advanced-node platform demand on the rise, with sub-8nm licenses dominating 1Q26. Tier-1 US foundry engagement could be confirmed 2Q26, signaling...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

AMD's Rome Will Rule An Empire. A Server Empire.

it's hard to believe that it's been almost eight years since I wrote this piece! On a day like today, with AMD's latest report fresh off the...

William Keating

TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

​Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Keeps Beating. Consensus Expects 38% EPS Growth in 2026. 1H26 EPS Growth Is Above 50% YoY.

​Impressive revenue and profit growth for TSMC, tight capacity leading to high Capex and new fabs, TSMC trading cheaper than ASML.

Nicolas Baratte

GUC's 3nm Breakout Quarter Reveals How Taiwan's ASIC Leaders Are Capturing AI Chip Demand

​TSMC affiliate GUC sees surge in revenue from hyperscaler custom silicon, driven by demand for custom AI chips from tech giants like Amazon and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...

Impressive revenue and profit growth for TSMC, tight capacity leading to high Capex and new fabs, TSMC trading cheaper than ASML.

TSMC affiliate GUC sees surge in revenue from hyperscaler custom silicon, driven by demand for custom AI chips from tech giants like Amazon and...