Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>September 2024 revenues of NT$251.87 billion, an increase of 0.4% MoM and an increase of 39.6% YoY.</li>
<li>Year to date revenue through September 2024 now totals NT$2,025.85 billion, an increase of 31.9% YoY.</li>
<li>Anticipating Q4 revenue forecast of $25.7 billion, up 10% QoQ. This would mean full year 2024 revenues of $88.8 billion, a 28.3% YoY increase</li>
</ul>


September 2024 revenues of NT$251.87 billion, an increase of 0.4% MoM and an increase of 39.6% YoY.
Year to date revenue through September 2024 now totals NT$2,025.85 billion, an increase of 31.9% YoY.
Anticipating Q4 revenue forecast of $25.7 billion, up 10% QoQ. This would mean full year 2024 revenues of $88.8 billion, a 28.3% YoY increase


Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

<ul>
<li>The rally of the Asia Tech sector (+24% YTD) is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. TSMC is up 64% but Samsung is down -22% YTD. </li>
<li>With the exception of AI, end-demand isn’t great. Smartphone up 8% but below 2019-21 level. PC flattish. x86 Server flattish. Telecom capex declining. Automotive electronics declining.   </li>
<li>AI is the most disruptive trend since Cloud in 2010. Years of increasing Capex are in front of us. But short-term, stocks are properly valued to rich, growth is slowing.</li>
</ul>


The rally of the Asia Tech sector (+24% YTD) is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. TSMC is up 64% but Samsung is down -22% YTD. 
With the exception of AI, end-demand isn’t great. Smartphone up 8% but below 2019-21 level. PC flattish. x86 Server flattish. Telecom capex declining. Automotive electronics declining.   
AI is the most disruptive trend since Cloud in 2010. Years of increasing Capex are in front of us. But short-term, stocks are properly valued to rich, growth is slowing.


All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The second PE rumoured interest in ASMPT in 18 months, with KKR circling.</li>
<li>Semiconductor M&amp;A has surged in 2024 YTD with a 33% increase in deal activity compared to 2023.</li>
<li>ASM's leadership in TCB, potential growth within HBM, expansion at TSM and enabling the Nvidia Blackwell platform are all reasons for M&amp;A interest.</li>
</ul>


The second PE rumoured interest in ASMPT in 18 months, with KKR circling.
Semiconductor M&amp;A has surged in 2024 YTD with a 33% increase in deal activity compared to 2023.
ASM's leadership in TCB, potential growth within HBM, expansion at TSM and enabling the Nvidia Blackwell platform are all reasons for M&amp;A interest.


ASMPT (ASM Pacific). 522 HK. M&A. Takeover Target Talk. Déjà Vu ?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Given UMC's partnership with Intel to produce chips using Intel's 12nm fab capacity, we believe latest Intel developments increase the opportunity for Intel Foundry to take a stake in UMC.</li>
<li>Intel's Foundry business makes a strong partner for UMC who has deep foundry experience and talent, but doesn't have leading edge fabs nor the balance sheet to build them.</li>
<li>If Intel Foundry Services spins out or Intel strengthens its balance sheet through a deal with Qualcomm/Apollo, the potential for a deeper UMC-Intel Foundry partnership becomes even more compelling.</li>
</ul>


Given UMC's partnership with Intel to produce chips using Intel's 12nm fab capacity, we believe latest Intel developments increase the opportunity for Intel Foundry to take a stake in UMC.
Intel's Foundry business makes a strong partner for UMC who has deep foundry experience and talent, but doesn't have leading edge fabs nor the balance sheet to build them.
If Intel Foundry Services spins out or Intel strengthens its balance sheet through a deal with Qualcomm/Apollo, the potential for a deeper UMC-Intel Foundry partnership becomes even more compelling.


United Microelectronics: Intel Foundry Should Take a Stake; Latest News Makes This More Likely

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +15.9% Premium; Sales Rose 33% YoY in August &amp; Headroom Increased</li>
<li>UMC: +1.8% Premium; Largest Monthly Decrease in ADR Headroom, Has Consistently Been Decreasing Since May</li>
<li>ASE: +2.0% Premium; At Current Level Can Consider Going Long the Premium</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +15.9% Premium; Sales Rose 33% YoY in August &amp; Headroom Increased
UMC: +1.8% Premium; Largest Monthly Decrease in ADR Headroom, Has Consistently Been Decreasing Since May
ASE: +2.0% Premium; At Current Level Can Consider Going Long the Premium


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC 33% Growth, UMC Headroom Decrease, ASE Historically Low Premium

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC Q324 Earnings Preview

September 24 revenues of NT$251.87 billion, +0.4% MoM & +39.6% YoY. YTD revenue NT$2,025.85 billion, +31.9% YoY. Anticipating FY2024 revenues of...

William Keating

All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Difficult juncture for Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...

Nicolas Baratte

ASMPT (ASM Pacific). 522 HK. M&A. Takeover Target Talk. Déjà Vu ?

Private equity interest in ASMPT has surged due to its leadership in TCB, potential growth in HBM, expansion at TSM, and enabling the Nvidia...

Neil Campling

United Microelectronics: Intel Foundry Should Take a Stake; Latest News Makes This More Likely

UMC's partnership with Intel could lead to Intel Foundry taking a stake in UMC due to Intel's latest developments and UMC's foundry experience.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC 33% Growth, UMC Headroom Decrease, ASE Historically Low Premium

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC Q324 Earnings Preview

September 24 revenues of NT$251.87 billion, +0.4% MoM & +39.6% YoY. YTD revenue NT$2,025.85 billion, +31.9% YoY. Anticipating FY2024 revenues of...

William Keating

All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Difficult juncture for ​Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...

Nicolas Baratte

ASMPT (ASM Pacific). 522 HK. M&A. Takeover Target Talk. Déjà Vu ?

​Private equity interest in ASMPT has surged due to its leadership in TCB, potential growth in HBM, expansion at TSM, and enabling the Nvidia...

Neil Campling

United Microelectronics: Intel Foundry Should Take a Stake; Latest News Makes This More Likely

​UMC's partnership with Intel could lead to Intel Foundry taking a stake in UMC due to Intel's latest developments and UMC's foundry experience.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC 33% Growth, UMC Headroom Decrease, ASE Historically Low Premium

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Difficult juncture for Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...

Private equity interest in ASMPT has surged due to its leadership in TCB, potential growth in HBM, expansion at TSM, and enabling the Nvidia...

UMC's partnership with Intel could lead to Intel Foundry taking a stake in UMC due to Intel's latest developments and UMC's foundry experience.