Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.</li>
<li>Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.</li>
<li>In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.
Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.
In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.


As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>The fab is the first buyer of Taiwan's robot parts: smart manufacturing was SEMICON Taiwan 2026's largest zone, up 20% against 6% for advanced packaging.</li>
<li>Labor drives the orders: TSMC has about 20 fabs under construction and calls construction workers a limiting factor, while ASE lists labor among six packaging challenges.</li>
<li>TSMC will release its packaging-equipment automation specs and simulation software free in 4Q, which lowers the entry bar for local automation makers.</li>
</ul>


The fab is the first buyer of Taiwan's robot parts: smart manufacturing was SEMICON Taiwan 2026's largest zone, up 20% against 6% for advanced packaging.
Labor drives the orders: TSMC has about 20 fabs under construction and calls construction workers a limiting factor, while ASE lists labor among six packaging challenges.
TSMC will release its packaging-equipment automation specs and simulation software free in 4Q, which lowers the entry bar for local automation makers.


TechChain Insights: Walking SEMICON 2026 Showed the Fab Is the First Buyer of Taiwan's Robot Parts

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASML/TSMC | launch industry initiative for 12-inch High NA EUV photomasks • Allegro | introducing the next stage of cooperation with PKO Bank • E-commerce & Logistics | EU approves major customs overhaul targeting e-commerce parcel surge</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASML/TSMC | launch industry initiative for 12-inch High NA EUV photomasks • Allegro | introducing the next stage of cooperation with PKO Bank • E-commerce & Logistics | EU approves major customs overhaul targeting e-commerce parcel surge

What's News in Amsterdam - 8 September (ASML/TSMC | Allegro | E-commerce & Logistics)

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

<ul>
<li>Since the last rebalancing on 30th January, our portfolio appreciated 3.4% against MSCI Asia-ex-Japan's 1%. Since inception on May 15, 2025, our portfolio has appreciated 35.8%, vs MXASJ's 32.8%. </li>
<li>Since last reshuffle, the portfolio was driven by Korea (2.57% return contribution), Taiwan (1.3%) and India (0.75%). Four Chinese internet stocks, Alibaba, Tencent, Tencent Music and Netease, contributed -1.97% return.</li>
<li>We now exclude Dr Lal Pathlabs in India and include Tata Steel. We also include Maybank in Malaysia. All our inclusions have seen sharp EPS estimate upgrades lately.</li>
</ul>


Since the last rebalancing on 30th January, our portfolio appreciated 3.4% against MSCI Asia-ex-Japan's 1%. Since inception on May 15, 2025, our portfolio has appreciated 35.8%, vs MXASJ's 32.8%. 
Since last reshuffle, the portfolio was driven by Korea (2.57% return contribution), Taiwan (1.3%) and India (0.75%). Four Chinese internet stocks, Alibaba, Tencent, Tencent Music and Netease, contributed -1.97% return.
We now exclude Dr Lal Pathlabs in India and include Tata Steel. We also include Maybank in Malaysia. All our inclusions have seen sharp EPS estimate upgrades lately.


Asian Equities: Model Portfolio - We Reshuffle India, Add Malaysia; Korea Remains Biggest Overweight

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Ignore what I wrote yesterday 1) there is no growth slowdown in 1H26  2) TSMC actually provided a 2026 guidance.  </li>
<li>2026 US$-revenues guidance up ~30%. Consensus is at 21%. 1Q26 gross margin guidance: 64%. Consensus is at 59% for FY26. </li>
<li>Long-Term US$-revenue growth revised up from 20% to 25% Cagr (2024 to 2029). AI growth revised up from 40% to 50% Cagr.</li>
</ul>


Ignore what I wrote yesterday 1) there is no growth slowdown in 1H26  2) TSMC actually provided a 2026 guidance.  
2026 US$-revenues guidance up ~30%. Consensus is at 21%. 1Q26 gross margin guidance: 64%. Consensus is at 59% for FY26. 
Long-Term US$-revenue growth revised up from 20% to 25% Cagr (2024 to 2029). AI growth revised up from 40% to 50% Cagr.


TSMC: Revising up – a Lot. Quick Notes on TSMC Before a Long Report.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

Andrew Lu

TechChain Insights: Walking SEMICON 2026 Showed the Fab Is the First Buyer of Taiwan's Robot Parts

Labor drives the orders: TSMC has about 20 fabs under construction and calls construction workers a limiting factor, while ASE lists labor among...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

What's News in Amsterdam - 8 September (ASML/TSMC | Allegro | E-commerce & Logistics)

In this edition: • ASML/TSMC | launch industry initiative for 12-inch High NA EUV photomasks • Allegro | introducing the next stage of cooperation...

The IDEA!

Asian Equities: Model Portfolio - We Reshuffle India, Add Malaysia; Korea Remains Biggest Overweight

Our Portfolio outperformed MXASJ since last reshuffle & since inception, driven by KR, TW & IN. We include reasonably valued stocks with strong...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

TSMC: Revising up – a Lot. Quick Notes on TSMC Before a Long Report.

TSMC' is revising up long term growth and margins guidance. AI growth at 50% Cagr. 2026 Consensus is 20% too low. Expect a large revision

Nicolas Baratte

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As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

Andrew Lu

TechChain Insights: Walking SEMICON 2026 Showed the Fab Is the First Buyer of Taiwan's Robot Parts

Labor drives the orders: TSMC has about 20 fabs under construction and calls construction workers a limiting factor, while ASE lists labor among...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

What's News in Amsterdam - 8 September (ASML/TSMC | Allegro | E-commerce & Logistics)

In this edition: • ASML/TSMC | launch industry initiative for 12-inch High NA EUV photomasks • Allegro | introducing the next stage of cooperation...

The IDEA!

Asian Equities: Model Portfolio - We Reshuffle India, Add Malaysia; Korea Remains Biggest Overweight

​Our Portfolio outperformed MXASJ since last reshuffle & since inception, driven by KR, TW & IN. We include reasonably valued stocks with strong...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

TSMC: Revising up – a Lot. Quick Notes on TSMC Before a Long Report.

​TSMC' is revising up long term growth and margins guidance. AI growth at 50% Cagr. 2026 Consensus is 20% too low. Expect a large revision

Nicolas Baratte

Our Portfolio outperformed MXASJ since last reshuffle & since inception, driven by KR, TW & IN. We include reasonably valued stocks with strong...

TSMC' is revising up long term growth and margins guidance. AI growth at 50% Cagr. 2026 Consensus is 20% too low. Expect a large revision