Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Over the weekend there was an article in the Nikkei saying that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> were considering a merger. Other media outlets followed.</li>
<li>This has been a possible outcome. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> owns 51% of Welcia, 13.6% in Tsuruha, and is negotiating to buy another 13% in Tsuruha from Oasis.</li>
<li>This would create a behemoth. ¥2.2trln in revenues vs ¥1trln for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsukiyococokara-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1" rel="noopener">MatsukiyoCocokara (3088 JP)</a>. It would be 25% of the market. Questions will be asked about concentration. </li>
</ul>


Over the weekend there was an article in the Nikkei saying that Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) were considering a merger. Other media outlets followed.
This has been a possible outcome. Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) owns 51% of Welcia, 13.6% in Tsuruha, and is negotiating to buy another 13% in Tsuruha from Oasis.
This would create a behemoth. ¥2.2trln in revenues vs ¥1trln for MatsukiyoCocokara (3088 JP). It would be 25% of the market. Questions will be asked about concentration. 


Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) - Aeon Tsuruha Stake Buy Followed by Merger?

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>As totally expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a> extended its expected start date for the Tender Offer on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The possibility of a fourth Offer attempt by the Queks is raised as Elliott surprisingly exits its position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener"></a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> is eminently bumpable, But unless investors force the issue, don't expect a bump.</li>
</ul>


As totally expected, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) extended its expected start date for the Tender Offer on Benefit One Inc (2412 JP).
The possibility of a fourth Offer attempt by the Queks is raised as Elliott surprisingly exits its position in Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK).

Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) is eminently bumpable, But unless investors force the issue, don't expect a bump.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Guoco, Outsourcing, Hang Lung, Hollysys, Dalek

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>If you need a quick overview of Japan's retail sectors and the winners and losers within, the following provides an update on 2023 and where things are headed in 2024.</li>
<li>Drugstore consolidation continues but so does the sector's encroachment on supermarkets while leaders in department stores are delivering record profits and lifestyle retailing is back.</li>
<li>Some of the best performers compared to initial forecasts include Matsuya, ABC Mart, Adastria, Isetan-Mitsukoshi, Takashimaya, Kintetsu, J Front Retailing and Lawson.</li>
</ul>


If you need a quick overview of Japan's retail sectors and the winners and losers within, the following provides an update on 2023 and where things are headed in 2024.
Drugstore consolidation continues but so does the sector's encroachment on supermarkets while leaders in department stores are delivering record profits and lifestyle retailing is back.
Some of the best performers compared to initial forecasts include Matsuya, ABC Mart, Adastria, Isetan-Mitsukoshi, Takashimaya, Kintetsu, J Front Retailing and Lawson.


Japan Retail Update: Winners and Losers as FY2023 Ends

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> owns 13% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>. Oasis owns 13% too. Oasis ran a governance campaign but lost last summer's AGM. Aeon supported Tsuruha.</li>
<li>Tsuruha shares popped in November when Tsuruha said it was looking at its strategic options. BBG reported PE firms were circling. Now Aeon wants to buy Oasis' stake. </li>
<li>That would put Aeon in a near-blocking position without consolidating. And it would mean minorities stayed minorities. The real question is whether this is what Tsuruha wants.</li>
</ul>



Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) owns 13% of Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP). Oasis owns 13% too. Oasis ran a governance campaign but lost last summer's AGM. Aeon supported Tsuruha.
Tsuruha shares popped in November when Tsuruha said it was looking at its strategic options. BBG reported PE firms were circling. Now Aeon wants to buy Oasis' stake. 
That would put Aeon in a near-blocking position without consolidating. And it would mean minorities stayed minorities. The real question is whether this is what Tsuruha wants.


Aeon (8267) Wants To Buy a Bigger Stake in Tsuruha (3391); What Does Tsuruha Want?

<ul>
<li>Private brands developed and managed by retailers themselves offer plenty of price and marketing flexibility during these inflationary times.</li>
<li>But it is not only their popularity as cheaper alternatives that is growing, so too are pack sizes, as consumers increase shopping volume and reduce shopping trip frequency.</li>
<li>The trend is another sign of why investors should look out for retailers with good private brands, given the impact on both sales and margin growth.</li>
</ul>


Private brands developed and managed by retailers themselves offer plenty of price and marketing flexibility during these inflationary times.
But it is not only their popularity as cheaper alternatives that is growing, so too are pack sizes, as consumers increase shopping volume and reduce shopping trip frequency.
The trend is another sign of why investors should look out for retailers with good private brands, given the impact on both sales and margin growth.


Private Brands in Japan: Getting Bigger – Literally

Japan

TSURUHA HOLDINGS INC. is a holding company which manages subsidiaries that operate drug stores in Hokkaido and the Tohoku area.  The Company's product line includes drugs, cosmetics, and household utensils.

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Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)

Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) - Aeon Tsuruha Stake Buy Followed by Merger?

Over the weekend we have news suggesting Aeon is pushing Tsuruha and Welcia towards a merger after buying Oasis' Tsuruha stake. Both stocks are up....

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Guoco, Outsourcing, Hang Lung, Hollysys, Dalek

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Retail Update: Winners and Losers as FY2023 Ends

Summary: Japan's retail sectors in 2023 saw drugstore consolidation and encroachment on supermarkets, while dept. stores and lifestyle retailing...

Michael Causton

Aeon (8267) Wants To Buy a Bigger Stake in Tsuruha (3391); What Does Tsuruha Want?

Aeon today said it was negotiating to buy activist Oasis' 13% stake in Tsuruha. Aeon wants to own a dominant position in drug stores. It could. The...

Travis Lundy

Private Brands in Japan: Getting Bigger – Literally

Private brands offer price and marketing flexibility during inflation, and their popularity is increasing. Investors should focus on retailers...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) - Aeon Tsuruha Stake Buy Followed by Merger?

Over the weekend we have news suggesting Aeon is pushing Tsuruha and Welcia towards a merger after buying Oasis' Tsuruha stake. Both stocks are up....

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Guoco, Outsourcing, Hang Lung, Hollysys, Dalek

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Retail Update: Winners and Losers as FY2023 Ends

​Summary: Japan's retail sectors in 2023 saw drugstore consolidation and encroachment on supermarkets, while dept. stores and lifestyle retailing...

Michael Causton

Aeon (8267) Wants To Buy a Bigger Stake in Tsuruha (3391); What Does Tsuruha Want?

Aeon today said it was negotiating to buy activist Oasis' 13% stake in Tsuruha. Aeon wants to own a dominant position in drug stores. It could. The...

Travis Lundy

Private Brands in Japan: Getting Bigger – Literally

​Private brands offer price and marketing flexibility during inflation, and their popularity is increasing. Investors should focus on retailers...

Michael Causton

Summary: Japan's retail sectors in 2023 saw drugstore consolidation and encroachment on supermarkets, while dept. stores and lifestyle retailing...

Private brands offer price and marketing flexibility during inflation, and their popularity is increasing. Investors should focus on retailers...