Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bangkok Expressway and Metro / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect 4Q25E core profit to edge up YoY on lower interest expenses, while BTS ridership and expressway traffic remain broadly stable.</li><li>We upgrade to Outperform (from Neutral) after the share price correction, offering ~12% upside to our Bt5.80 fair value (required return 4.6%), with very limited tactical downside despite 2Y core EPS growth of 4% CAGR, below the sector.</li><li>Near-term catalysts remain limited, pending the election and a new Cabinet to approve the Bt20/Bt40 fare scheme and the double-deck expressway project, which would support longer-term traffic growth.</li></ul>

We expect 4Q25E core profit to edge up YoY on lower interest expenses, while BTS ridership and expressway traffic remain broadly stable.We upgrade to Outperform (from Neutral) after the share price correction, offering ~12% upside to our Bt5.80 fair value (required return 4.6%), with very limited tactical downside despite 2Y core EPS growth of 4% CAGR, below the sector.Near-term catalysts remain limited, pending the election and a new Cabinet to approve the Bt20/Bt40 fare scheme and the double-deck expressway project, which would support longer-term traffic growth.

BANGKOK EXPRESSWAY AND METRO Plc. (BEM): 4Q25E Core Profit Muted; 1Q26E Improving

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,540/1,545 points (75-day EMA) and the support at 1,519/1,515 points (10-day and 25-day EMA).</li><li>KTX has a negative outlook on the SET this week due to three key domestic factors.</li><li>We recommend contrarian investing; investors may sell to take profit first before waiting to buy back when the SET Index weakens to below 1,482 points (12M MRP at 4.15%).</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,540/1,545 points (75-day EMA) and the support at 1,519/1,515 points (10-day and 25-day EMA).KTX has a negative outlook on the SET this week due to three key domestic factors.We recommend contrarian investing; investors may sell to take profit first before waiting to buy back when the SET Index weakens to below 1,482 points (12M MRP at 4.15%).

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

<ul>
<li>We see the recent plunge in share price (17% in past 20 days) was due to the concerns over contract expiry of PTW (subsidiary of TTW) in Oct 2023.</li>
<li>3Q22 earnings to improve QoQ We estimate the 3Q22 net profit to be at Bt916m (-2% YoY, +12%QoQ).The QoQ growth will be due to higher equity income contribution from CKP</li>
<li>The profit from core operations (tap water sales) should slightly improve 1%QoQ on the back of rising demand brought on by increased travel and tourism as well as a recovery </li>
</ul>


We see the recent plunge in share price (17% in past 20 days) was due to the concerns over contract expiry of PTW (subsidiary of TTW) in Oct 2023.
3Q22 earnings to improve QoQ We estimate the 3Q22 net profit to be at Bt916m (-2% YoY, +12%QoQ).The QoQ growth will be due to higher equity income contribution from CKP
The profit from core operations (tap water sales) should slightly improve 1%QoQ on the back of rising demand brought on by increased travel and tourism as well as a recovery 


TTW : 3Q22 Earnings to Improve QoQ While Soften YoY

<ul><li>The 2Q22 net profit fell 4% YoY.</li><li>The 2Q22 net profit fell short of our expectation by 10%, as revenue was also below the forecast by 10%.</li><li>We maintain an Underperform rating, as the share price is fully valued.</li></ul>

The 2Q22 net profit fell 4% YoY.The 2Q22 net profit fell short of our expectation by 10%, as revenue was also below the forecast by 10%.We maintain an Underperform rating, as the share price is fully valued.

Earnings Reviews (NETBAY, SIS, TTW, WICE)

<ul>
<li>We expect the 2Q22 earnings to improve QoQ from seasonal higher equity income from CKP. However,core operations should weaken due to lower tap water sales. Overall 2022 outlook remains bleak </li>
<li>2Q22 earnings to surge QoQ while soften YoY We estimate the 2Q22 net profit to be at Bt833m (-3%YoY, +36%QoQ). The QoQ growth will be due to higher equity income </li>
<li>The equity income should grow to Bt185m (+5%YoY, +&gt;100% QoQ), thanks to seasonal better hydro powerplant operations. Moreover, the Increase of CKP stake in XPCL (37.5% to 42.5% in 3Q21) </li>
</ul>


We expect the 2Q22 earnings to improve QoQ from seasonal higher equity income from CKP. However,core operations should weaken due to lower tap water sales. Overall 2022 outlook remains bleak 
2Q22 earnings to surge QoQ while soften YoY We estimate the 2Q22 net profit to be at Bt833m (-3%YoY, +36%QoQ). The QoQ growth will be due to higher equity income 
The equity income should grow to Bt185m (+5%YoY, +&gt;100% QoQ), thanks to seasonal better hydro powerplant operations. Moreover, the Increase of CKP stake in XPCL (37.5% to 42.5% in 3Q21) 


TTW : Better Seasonality Will Drive 2Q22 Earnings

Thailand

TTW Public Company Limited primarily engages in the production and distribution of treated water to the Provincial Waterworks Authority (PWA) in various districts of Nakhon Pathom and Samut Sakhon provinces in Thailand. The company also offers water treatment and maintenance services, manages wastewater treatment systems, and operates water supply projects. TTW Public Company Limited was founded on September 11, 2000, and is headquartered in Sam Phran, Thailand.

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TTW (TTW TB)

BANGKOK EXPRESSWAY AND METRO Plc. (BEM): 4Q25E Core Profit Muted; 1Q26E Improving

We expect 4Q25E core profit to edge up YoY on lower interest expenses, while BTS ridership and expressway traffic remain broadly stable.

Krungthai XSpring

Today's Dominant Ideas

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,540/1,545 points (75-day EMA) and the support at 1,519/1,515...

Krungthai XSpring

TTW : 3Q22 Earnings to Improve QoQ While Soften YoY

We see the recent plunge in share price (17% in past 20 days) was due to the concerns over contract expiry of PTW (subsidiary of TTW) in Oct 2023....

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Earnings Reviews (NETBAY, SIS, TTW, WICE)

The 2Q22 net profit fell 4% YoY. The 2Q22 net profit fell short of our expectation by 10%, as revenue was also below the forecast by 10%. We...

Krungthai XSpring

TTW : Better Seasonality Will Drive 2Q22 Earnings

We expect the 2Q22 earnings to improve QoQ from seasonal higher equity income from CKP. However, core operations should weaken due to lower tap...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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