Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights.<strong> </strong></p>

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights. 

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst, VAC Investments

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Oil Price</h2><p>Risk premia in the Crude Oil complex continued to underpin the oil price rally this week, with WTI and Brent ending the week up c.1.4% and 3%, respectively at USD 70.53/bbl and USD 76.94/bbl. Whilst the US withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal, followed by renewed tensions in Syria - are expected to shape near-term market sentiment and keep the bullish bias, we anticipate only a modest impact to physical oil production and inventories at the moment. US sanctions on Iran could take up to…</p>

Oil PriceRisk premia in the Crude Oil complex continued to underpin the oil price rally this week, with WTI and Brent ending the week up c.1.4% and 3%, respectively at USD 70.53/bbl and USD 76.94/bbl. Whilst the US withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal, followed by renewed tensions in Syria - are expected to shape near-term market sentiment and keep the bullish bias, we anticipate only a modest impact to physical oil production and inventories at the moment. US sanctions on Iran could take up to…

<h2>Oil Price</h2><p>Crude oil futures continued their rally last week by gaining almost 2% W/w, reaching new highs not seen since November 2014. WTI ended the week at USD 68.11/bbl, while Brent ended the week at USD 73.61/bbl. A near perfect storm involving - heightened geopolitical risk (Missile strikes in Syria and increased risks to the Iran Nuclear Deal); encouraging statements from the recent OPEC meeting around spare capacity and the likelihood of further production cuts by OPEC and Russia; and a…</p>

Oil PriceCrude oil futures continued their rally last week by gaining almost 2% W/w, reaching new highs not seen since November 2014. WTI ended the week at USD 68.11/bbl, while Brent ended the week at USD 73.61/bbl. A near perfect storm involving - heightened geopolitical risk (Missile strikes in Syria and increased risks to the Iran Nuclear Deal); encouraging statements from the recent OPEC meeting around spare capacity and the likelihood of further production cuts by OPEC and Russia; and a…

<h2>Oil Price</h2><p>Crude Oil had a strong week, with WTI and Brent +10% over the week, closing at USD 65.87/bbl and USD 70.5/bbl, respectively. The significant outperformance was largely driven by heightened geopolitical risk around the Iran Nuclear Deal, continued strong oil demand growth YTD in 2018, and an increased likelihood that the OPEC/Russia deal goalposts could be moved to extend it beyond Y/e-18. Crucially, we would argue the equity markets remain sceptical of the recent rally, with the…</p>

Oil PriceCrude Oil had a strong week, with WTI and Brent +10% over the week, closing at USD 65.87/bbl and USD 70.5/bbl, respectively. The significant outperformance was largely driven by heightened geopolitical risk around the Iran Nuclear Deal, continued strong oil demand growth YTD in 2018, and an increased likelihood that the OPEC/Russia deal goalposts could be moved to extend it beyond Y/e-18. Crucially, we would argue the equity markets remain sceptical of the recent rally, with the…

<h2>Oil Price</h2><p>WTI and Brent crude prices remained weak through most of last week before partially bouncing back on Friday to end c.USD 1/bbl down at USD 61.5/bbl and USD 64.5/bbl, respectively. Whilst OPEC and Russian compliance with announced quota cuts remains strong, continued robust production growth from US Shale producers remains a key market concern. The EIA estimates the US could add c.1 MMbbls/day of additional crude oil production by year-end, significantly negating the impact of OPEC quota…</p>

Oil PriceWTI and Brent crude prices remained weak through most of last week before partially bouncing back on Friday to end c.USD 1/bbl down at USD 61.5/bbl and USD 64.5/bbl, respectively. Whilst OPEC and Russian compliance with announced quota cuts remains strong, continued robust production growth from US Shale producers remains a key market concern. The EIA estimates the US could add c.1 MMbbls/day of additional crude oil production by year-end, significantly negating the impact of OPEC quota…

United Kingdom

Tullow Oil is an independent upstream oil and gas company focused on exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas, primarily in Africa. It has core producing assets offshore Ghana, including the Jubilee and TEN fields. The company is headquartered in London, United Kingdom, and was founded in 1985.

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Tullow Oil (TLW LN)

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

The MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a...

Vermilion Research

Global E&Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 16

Oil PriceRisk premia in the Crude Oil complex continued to underpin the oil price rally this week, with WTI and Brent ending the week up c.1.4% and...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global E&Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 15

Oil PriceCrude oil futures continued their rally last week by gaining almost 2% W/w, reaching new highs not seen since November 2014. WTI ended the...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global E&Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 14

Oil PriceCrude Oil had a strong week, with WTI and Brent +10% over the week, closing at USD 65.87/bbl and USD 70.5/bbl, respectively. The...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global E&Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 13

Oil PriceWTI and Brent crude prices remained weak through most of last week before partially bouncing back on Friday to end c.USD 1/bbl down at USD...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

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