Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. </li>
<li>The simple ratio of JCNC/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.</li>
<li>There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> at these levels appears unrealistic. </li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. 
The simple ratio of JCNC/ Astra International (ASII IJ) is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.
There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) at these levels appears unrealistic. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> is currently trading at a ~12% discount to NAV, just outside its narrowest post-Covid.</li>
<li>A key catalyst for the recent narrowing was JCNC's inclusion in the SIMSCI Index at the end of last month.</li>
<li>JCNC is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) is currently trading at a ~12% discount to NAV, just outside its narrowest post-Covid.
A key catalyst for the recent narrowing was JCNC's inclusion in the SIMSCI Index at the end of last month.
JCNC is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s is currently trading tight at a ~6% discount to NAV.</li>
<li>The implied stub and JCNC/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> ratio are the highest outside the 2008 financial crisis.</li>
<li>Key catalysts for JCNC's outperformance, such as the SIMSCI Index inclusion, have passed.  JCNC is trading rich. Look to reverse the stub.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s is currently trading tight at a ~6% discount to NAV.
The implied stub and JCNC/Astra International (ASII IJ) ratio are the highest outside the 2008 financial crisis.
Key catalysts for JCNC's outperformance, such as the SIMSCI Index inclusion, have passed.  JCNC is trading rich. Look to reverse the stub.


JCNC Is Even More Overstretched Vs. Astra

<ul>
<li>Indonesian auto dealership play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tunas-ridean-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3780:1" rel="noopener">Tunas Ridean (TURI IJ)</a>'s buyback - and subsequent delisting - has been extended to the 12 October. </li>
<li>TURI shareholders who do not tender - or sell in the market - will be left holding listed scrip.</li>
<li>Currently trading a gross spread of ~3% to terms, net of the sales tax levy.</li>
</ul>


Indonesian auto dealership play Tunas Ridean (TURI IJ)'s buyback - and subsequent delisting - has been extended to the 12 October. 
TURI shareholders who do not tender - or sell in the market - will be left holding listed scrip.
Currently trading a gross spread of ~3% to terms, net of the sales tax levy.


Tunas Ridean: Sell Or Tender, But Don't Do Nothing

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> is currently trading at a ~9% discount to NAV, around the narrowest since the post-Covid nadir in April 2020.</li>
<li>JCNC's recent results highlighted a marked improvement in its unlisted Vietnamese automotive ops. </li>
<li>Weakness in the Indonesian rupiah has taken some of the shine off <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>'s strong sales growth. </li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) is currently trading at a ~9% discount to NAV, around the narrowest since the post-Covid nadir in April 2020.
JCNC's recent results highlighted a marked improvement in its unlisted Vietnamese automotive ops. 
Weakness in the Indonesian rupiah has taken some of the shine off Astra International (ASII IJ)'s strong sales growth. 


Indonesia

PT Tunas Ridean Tbk and its subsidiaries operate automobile dealerships that sell new and used motor vehicles, spare parts and accessories as well as provide after-sales services.  Through its subsidiary, PT Tunas Financindo Corporation, the Company also provides operating lease and consumer financing services.

Tunas Ridean (TURI IJ)

JCNC's Logic-Defying Valuation

There is no apparent justification for the current level. Expect Matheson to chip away at minorities. But a full-blown Offer appears unrealistic....

David Blennerhassett

JCNC Is Still Overstretched Vs. Astra

JCNC is expensive here - relative to historical values - and from an implied stub perspective. And the MSCI inclusion event has now passed. I'd...

David Blennerhassett

JCNC Is Even More Overstretched Vs. Astra

On an implied stub, NAV discount, and simple ratio (JCNC/Astra), JCNC is trading rich. Astra is an ongoing recovery play, and is inexpensive versus...

David Blennerhassett

Tunas Ridean: Sell Or Tender, But Don't Do Nothing

This buyback for Tunas Ridean is done. It will close on the 12 October. If you are holding shares - sell or tender - but don't do nothing.

David Blennerhassett

JCNC Is Overstretched Vs. Astra

If you had set up the stub, I would be unwinding here. I'd look to reverse the stub as and when the current momentum reverses.

David Blennerhassett