Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. </li>
<li>The simple ratio of JCNC/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.</li>
<li>There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> at these levels appears unrealistic. </li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. 
The simple ratio of JCNC/ Astra International (ASII IJ) is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.
There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) at these levels appears unrealistic. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> is currently trading at a ~12% discount to NAV, just outside its narrowest post-Covid.</li>
<li>A key catalyst for the recent narrowing was JCNC's inclusion in the SIMSCI Index at the end of last month.</li>
<li>JCNC is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) is currently trading at a ~12% discount to NAV, just outside its narrowest post-Covid.
A key catalyst for the recent narrowing was JCNC's inclusion in the SIMSCI Index at the end of last month.
JCNC is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective.


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Back on the 8th June 2022, IFM Global Infrastructure Fund announced a 15% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a> (ATLAX), and subsequently floated the possibility of a non-binding proposal. </li>
<li>However, IFM's request, at the time, for limited company information on ATLAX , a US/Europe toll-road play, came to nought.</li>
<li>Undeterred, IFM continues to accumulate shares. Reportedly, IFM now holds ~35% after picking up 1.9% this morning.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 8th June 2022, IFM Global Infrastructure Fund announced a 15% stake in Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) (ATLAX), and subsequently floated the possibility of a non-binding proposal. 
However, IFM's request, at the time, for limited company information on ATLAX , a US/Europe toll-road play, came to nought.
Undeterred, IFM continues to accumulate shares. Reportedly, IFM now holds ~35% after picking up 1.9% this morning.


Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Creeps To A ~35% Stake

<ul>
<li>Troubled casino operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment (SGR AU)</a><a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240520/pdf/063qmlyvz81ytz.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> announced</a> it had “received inbound interest” from several parties, including "Hard Rock Hotels &amp; Resorts ... a local partner of Hard Rock".</li>
<li>Star is in the doghouse, again,  as the regulator conducts (another) review amid concerns Star did not do enough to remedy the problems identified in the first review. </li>
<li>Facing “serious and systemic non-compliance” with anti-money laundering laws, Star faces the distinct possibility of losing is casino licence in Sydney; and potentially the one in Queensland.  </li>
</ul>


Troubled casino operator Star Entertainment (SGR AU) announced it had “received inbound interest” from several parties, including "Hard Rock Hotels &amp; Resorts ... a local partner of Hard Rock".
Star is in the doghouse, again,  as the regulator conducts (another) review amid concerns Star did not do enough to remedy the problems identified in the first review. 
Facing “serious and systemic non-compliance” with anti-money laundering laws, Star faces the distinct possibility of losing is casino licence in Sydney; and potentially the one in Queensland.  


Star Entertainment (SGR AU): Hard Rock Rolls The Dice

<ul>
<li>Back in June 2022, US/Europe toll-road play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a> (ATLIX) <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02530630-2A1378680?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a> IFM Global Infrastructure's request for limited company information, before deciding whether to submit a non-binding indicative proposal. </li>
<li>Undeterred, IFM, which held 15% of shares out at the time, bumped its stake to<a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02549751-2A1388878?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> 19%</a> two months later; and has continued to capitalise on Australia's creep provisions ever since. </li>
<li>This morning, IFM is understood to have lifted its stake to ~26.5%, in an apparent attempt to gain additional board representation. Another tilt cannot be ruled out. </li>
</ul>


Back in June 2022, US/Europe toll-road play Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) (ATLIX) rejected IFM Global Infrastructure's request for limited company information, before deciding whether to submit a non-binding indicative proposal. 
Undeterred, IFM, which held 15% of shares out at the time, bumped its stake to 19% two months later; and has continued to capitalise on Australia's creep provisions ever since. 
This morning, IFM is understood to have lifted its stake to ~26.5%, in an apparent attempt to gain additional board representation. Another tilt cannot be ruled out. 


Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Ups Stake As Shares Waver

Indonesia

PT Tunas Ridean Tbk and its subsidiaries operate automobile dealerships that sell new and used motor vehicles, spare parts and accessories as well as provide after-sales services.  Through its subsidiary, PT Tunas Financindo Corporation, the Company also provides operating lease and consumer financing services.

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Tunas Ridean (TURI IJ)

JCNC's Logic-Defying Valuation

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JCNC Is Still Overstretched Vs. Astra

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Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Creeps To A ~35% Stake

Fundamentally, ATLAX appears attactive here. ATLAX boasts low risk, stable yielding, toll road assets. Plus there are little to no viable options,...

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Star Entertainment (SGR AU): Hard Rock Rolls The Dice

Opportunistic suitors? Maybe. Probably. But like Crown, Star needs a clean slate. And that means it should be busted-up, or privatised -...

David Blennerhassett

Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Ups Stake As Shares Waver

Trading mostly below its five-year forward averages; together with an attractive yield; IFM's latest share grab has been labeled opportunistic....

David Blennerhassett

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