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Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A / Equity Bottom-Up

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Market Leader Facing Macro Headwinds: Turkcell is the leading mobile operator in Turkey with a strong market share of approximately 41% and a growing fiber and digital services portfolio. However, its financial performance is significantly impacted by Turkey's hyperinflationary environment and currency volatility, which creates substantial uncertainty.</li>
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Strategic Focus on Digital and Fiber Expansion: The company is strategically pivoting from a traditional telecom operator to a digital services provider, focusing on high-growth areas like FinTech (Paycell), streaming (TV+), cloud services, and data centers. Continued investment in its fiber network, which passes over 6.2 million homes, is key to capturing high-value broadband customers and supporting its digital ecosystem.</li>
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Valuation Attractive but Governance and Capex Risks Remain: The stock appears attractively valued, reflected in a high Smartkarma value score and low valuation multiples. However, significant upcoming capital expenditures for the 5G rollout and concerns regarding the influence of its largest shareholder, the Turkey Wealth Fund (TWF), on capital allocation decisions pose notable risks for investors.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
Market Leader Facing Macro Headwinds: Turkcell is the leading mobile operator in Turkey with a strong market share of approximately 41% and a growing fiber and digital services portfolio. However, its financial performance is significantly impacted by Turkey's hyperinflationary environment and currency volatility, which creates substantial uncertainty.
  
Strategic Focus on Digital and Fiber Expansion: The company is strategically pivoting from a traditional telecom operator to a digital services provider, focusing on high-growth areas like FinTech (Paycell), streaming (TV+), cloud services, and data centers. Continued investment in its fiber network, which passes over 6.2 million homes, is key to capturing high-value broadband customers and supporting its digital ecosystem.
  
Valuation Attractive but Governance and Capex Risks Remain: The stock appears attractively valued, reflected in a high Smartkarma value score and low valuation multiples. However, significant upcoming capital expenditures for the 5G rollout and concerns regarding the influence of its largest shareholder, the Turkey Wealth Fund (TWF), on capital allocation decisions pose notable risks for investors.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A (TKC US) - Dec 2025

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

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<li>The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)</li>
<li>10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.</li>
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The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)
10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.


Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

Turkey

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS (Turkcell) is a converged communication and technology services player with regional assets and globally relevant services. The Company provides mobile and fixed voice, data, television, and other services over its network in Turkey.

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Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A (TKC US)

Primer: Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A (TKC US) - Dec 2025

Market Leader Facing Macro Headwinds: Turkcell is the leading mobile operator in Turkey with a strong market share of approximately 41% and a...

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Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

The $SPX is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023. Considering limited upside, we continue to favor...

Vermilion Research

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