Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Since the end of 2Q18 the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22834" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22834:1">TRY (USDTRY CURNCY)</a> has depreciated a further 26% and interest rates have moved higher by 580bps. HSBC Bank Turkey has not yet reported its 2Q18 results, although many peer banks have; provision expense growth is radical even before we take into account 3Q18. The risk is that HSBC Bank Turkey must take far higher credit costs during 3Q18 and 4Q18 (and likely beyond) negatively impacting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/516" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> credit costs and profit.  The same is the case for Argentina, where we believe the combined risks are not well understood.

Since the end of 2Q18 the TRY (USDTRY CURNCY) has depreciated a further 26% and interest rates have moved higher by 580bps. HSBC Bank Turkey has not yet reported its 2Q18 results, although many peer banks have; provision expense growth is radical even before we take into account 3Q18. The risk is that HSBC Bank Turkey must take far higher credit costs during 3Q18 and 4Q18 (and likely beyond) negatively impacting HSBC Holdings (5 HK) credit costs and profit.  The same is the case for Argentina, where we believe the combined risks are not well understood.

HSBC Holdings – Turkey, Argentina Bank Data Does Not Bode Well For HSBC

The rapid and extensive devaluation of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22834" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22834:1">TRY (USDTRY CURNCY)</a> is the first major currency devaluation since banks adopted IFRS 9. Under the new accounting regime provision expenses and loan classification can be more onerous. We believe that the magnitude of the TRY/USD depreciation constitutes ‘a significant increase in credit risk’ as outlined under what are called Stage 2 loans. The risk is that banks with exposure to Turkey see a marked increase in Expected Credit Losses (ECL) for stage 2…

The rapid and extensive devaluation of the TRY (USDTRY CURNCY) is the first major currency devaluation since banks adopted IFRS 9. Under the new accounting regime provision expenses and loan classification can be more onerous. We believe that the magnitude of the TRY/USD depreciation constitutes ‘a significant increase in credit risk’ as outlined under what are called Stage 2 loans. The risk is that banks with exposure to Turkey see a marked increase in Expected Credit Losses (ECL) for stage 2…

HSBC Holdings – TRY Devaluation Is the First Major Devaulation Under IFRS 9, Risk for HSBC Is Real

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Our EM FX domino call is unfolding and seeing USD bull energy rolling into Asian FX in a sequence that flashed red flags in early 2018 and more recently in early July (TRY bull triangle) for a broadly stronger dollar with EM panic. Today we will outline levels that would induce a higher degree dollar rise in Asia above our natural target levels slated for September.USD/TRY has moved above 7.0 this morning as further contagion is expected given the DXY just broke out of the flat range. Erdogan…

Our EM FX domino call is unfolding and seeing USD bull energy rolling into Asian FX in a sequence that flashed red flags in early 2018 and more recently in early July (TRY bull triangle) for a broadly stronger dollar with EM panic. Today we will outline levels that would induce a higher degree dollar rise in Asia above our natural target levels slated for September.USD/TRY has moved above 7.0 this morning as further contagion is expected given the DXY just broke out of the flat range. Erdogan…

USD strength is pushing into the late stages of the immediate up leg where we see a cycle inflection or capitulation in EM and Asian FX in late July setting the stage for a dollar peak and EM equity low.The biggest near term risk for  USD strength stems from the Turkish Lira. If you recall, it was the TRY that kicked off the bullish USD domino cycle that we nailed back in March 2018. We now see fresh risk of a sharp USD rise versus the Turkish Lira that would set off a fresh round of USD…

USD strength is pushing into the late stages of the immediate up leg where we see a cycle inflection or capitulation in EM and Asian FX in late July setting the stage for a dollar peak and EM equity low.The biggest near term risk for  USD strength stems from the Turkish Lira. If you recall, it was the TRY that kicked off the bullish USD domino cycle that we nailed back in March 2018. We now see fresh risk of a sharp USD rise versus the Turkish Lira that would set off a fresh round of USD…

USD/TRY to Trigger Next Wave of USD Strength into a USD Peak and EM Cycle Low

USD/TRY rally target at 3.75 has been met after breaking above descending wedge resistance as the US political dispute was used as an acceleration trigger. 4.0 was touted as the macro cycle low even though we missed an entry point (where we covered our USD short).We feature the daily and intra day charts to add color to the ST range given today's move and risk of further USD appreciation  medium-term.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/035/299/original/TRY%20DAILY%20H.png?1507545589" data-smartkarma-image-id="35299"></figure>Key daily chart points: Bull break of the MT falling wedge resistance. MACD bull breakout amid a…

USD/TRY rally target at 3.75 has been met after breaking above descending wedge resistance as the US political dispute was used as an acceleration trigger. 4.0 was touted as the macro cycle low even though we missed an entry point (where we covered our USD short).We feature the daily and intra day charts to add color to the ST range given today's move and risk of further USD appreciation  medium-term.Key daily chart points: Bull break of the MT falling wedge resistance. MACD bull breakout amid a…

Turkey

The Turkish lira is the official currency of the Republic of Turkey. 

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TRY (USDTRY CURNCY)

HSBC Holdings – Turkey, Argentina Bank Data Does Not Bode Well For HSBC

Since the end of 2Q18 the TRY (USDTRY CURNCY) has depreciated a further 26% and interest rates have moved higher by 580bps. HSBC Bank Turkey has...

Daniel Tabbush

HSBC Holdings – TRY Devaluation Is the First Major Devaulation Under IFRS 9, Risk for HSBC Is Real

The rapid and extensive devaluation of the TRY (USDTRY CURNCY) is the first major currency devaluation since banks adopted IFRS 9. Under the new...

Daniel Tabbush

Degrees of TRY Contagion

Our EM FX domino call is unfolding and seeing USD bull energy rolling into Asian FX in a sequence that flashed red flags in early 2018 and more...

Thomas Schroeder

USD/TRY to Trigger Next Wave of USD Strength into a USD Peak and EM Cycle Low

USD strength is pushing into the late stages of the immediate up leg where we see a cycle inflection or capitulation in EM and Asian FX in late...

Thomas Schroeder

Turkish Lira Levels and Contagion Risk

USD/TRY rally target at 3.75 has been met after breaking above descending wedge resistance as the US political dispute was used as an acceleration...

Thomas Schroeder

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