Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>March 2025 was a great month for electric two wheeler sales. However mid month April registration numbers show steep decline in volumes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor (TVSL IN)</a> witness steep decline in volume versus March 2025.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a> leads the table with the highest registration.</li>
</ul>


March 2025 was a great month for electric two wheeler sales. However mid month April registration numbers show steep decline in volumes.

Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) and TVS Motor (TVSL IN) witness steep decline in volume versus March 2025.

Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) leads the table with the highest registration.


Mid-Month Electric Two-Wheeler Update: Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor Witness Steep Decline

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Auto OEMs: We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT for our OEM coverage universe to grow by ~8.5%/8.8%/9.3% YoY with flat EBITDA Margins.</li><li>The growth will be driven by i) Mid to High Single-digit volume growth in 2Ws, ii) Low to mid-singledigit growth for PVs/CVs, and iii) Low teens volume growth in the tractor industry.</li><li>The expected YoY EBITDA margin remains flattish due to higher discounts/ advertisement expenses and negative operating leverage being partly offset by price hikes taken over the past year. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto OEMs: We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT for our OEM coverage universe to grow by ~8.5%/8.8%/9.3% YoY with flat EBITDA Margins.The growth will be driven by i) Mid to High Single-digit volume growth in 2Ws, ii) Low to mid-singledigit growth for PVs/CVs, and iii) Low teens volume growth in the tractor industry.The expected YoY EBITDA margin remains flattish due to higher discounts/ advertisement expenses and negative operating leverage being partly offset by price hikes taken over the past year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Mar’25 Wholesale Volumes: Domestic PV industry sales grew by 5% YoY, approximately, driven by strong volumes from Toyota, M&amp;M, and Kia, while Hyundai/Maruti witnessed declines.</li><li>The domestic CV industry saw a growth of 2%/23% YoY/MoM. The domestic tractor industry registered 32% YoY volume growth, led by 34% and 15% YoY growth in M&amp;M and Escorts, respectively.</li><li>In the 2W segment, TVS and Eicher reported YoY growth of 15% and 33%, respectively, while Bajaj/Hero/Honda numbers are awaited.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mar’25 Wholesale Volumes: Domestic PV industry sales grew by 5% YoY, approximately, driven by strong volumes from Toyota, M&amp;M, and Kia, while Hyundai/Maruti witnessed declines.The domestic CV industry saw a growth of 2%/23% YoY/MoM. The domestic tractor industry registered 32% YoY volume growth, led by 34% and 15% YoY growth in M&amp;M and Escorts, respectively.In the 2W segment, TVS and Eicher reported YoY growth of 15% and 33%, respectively, while Bajaj/Hero/Honda numbers are awaited.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Monthly Volume Update - Strong 2W/Tractor Volumes; CVs/ PV a Mixed Bag

<ul>
<li>March recorded the highest electric two-wheeler sales since the last festive season. But will this momentum sustain, or is it just a year-end sales push?</li>
<li>EV penetration in two-wheeler sales has reached its highest level in the financial year 2025.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor (TVSL IN)</a> are the top picks in the electric two wheeler category.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a>has been the most inconsistent player despite having major volumes.</li>
</ul>


March recorded the highest electric two-wheeler sales since the last festive season. But will this momentum sustain, or is it just a year-end sales push?
EV penetration in two-wheeler sales has reached its highest level in the financial year 2025.

Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN),TVS Motor (TVSL IN) are the top picks in the electric two wheeler category.Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)has been the most inconsistent player despite having major volumes.


Electrifying 2W Sales in March – Bajaj Auto Takes the Lead

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

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With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Automobile industry is expected to witness a mixed performance in FY25 Volume growth, with robust growth in tractors, moderate increases in 2W’s and PV’s, and a slight decline in CV’s</li>
<li>Favorable farmer sentiment driving tractor demand and substantial export opportunities for 2W’s are key growth triggers anticipated.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/escorts-kubota-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6773:1" rel="noopener">Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)</a> with a revenue share of 80% from tractor business, foresees significant growth driven by a robust domestic market and double-digit growth in their export business. </li>
</ul>


Automobile industry is expected to witness a mixed performance in FY25 Volume growth, with robust growth in tractors, moderate increases in 2W’s and PV’s, and a slight decline in CV’s
Favorable farmer sentiment driving tractor demand and substantial export opportunities for 2W’s are key growth triggers anticipated.

Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN) with a revenue share of 80% from tractor business, foresees significant growth driven by a robust domestic market and double-digit growth in their export business. 


Automobile Industry FY25: Expectations for Different Verticals

India

TVS Motor Company Limited manufactures motorcycles, mopeds, and scooters. The Company provides spark ignition operated outboard motors, combustion spark ignition engines, critical engines, and transmission parts. TVS Motor Company serves customers in India.

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TVS Motor (TVSL IN)

Mid-Month Electric Two-Wheeler Update: Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor Witness Steep Decline

March'25 saw surge in EV 2W sales, but mid-April registrations show a significant decline in volumes, with Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor experiencing...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Q4FY25 Earnings Preview - Automobile

Auto OEMs: We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT for our OEM coverage universe to grow by ~8.5%/8.8%/9.3% YoY with flat EBITDA Margins.

Axis Direct

Monthly Volume Update - Strong 2W/Tractor Volumes; CVs/ PV a Mixed Bag

Mar’25 Wholesale Volumes: Domestic PV industry sales grew by 5% YoY, approximately, driven by strong volumes from Toyota, M&M, and Kia, while...

Axis Direct

Electrifying 2W Sales in March – Bajaj Auto Takes the Lead

March saw a surge in electric two-wheeler sales. Bajaj Auto Ltd and TVS Motor are top picks in the category. Ola Electric, despite high volumes,...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Automobile Industry FY25: Expectations for Different Verticals

Mixed performance expected in FY25 for automobile industry with strong growth in tractors, moderate increases in 2W’s and PV’s, and slight decline...

Nimish Maheshwari

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Mid-Month Electric Two-Wheeler Update: Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor Witness Steep Decline

​March'25 saw surge in EV 2W sales, but mid-April registrations show a significant decline in volumes, with Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor experiencing...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Q4FY25 Earnings Preview - Automobile

Auto OEMs: We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT for our OEM coverage universe to grow by ~8.5%/8.8%/9.3% YoY with flat EBITDA Margins.

Axis Direct

Monthly Volume Update - Strong 2W/Tractor Volumes; CVs/ PV a Mixed Bag

Mar’25 Wholesale Volumes: Domestic PV industry sales grew by 5% YoY, approximately, driven by strong volumes from Toyota, M&M, and Kia, while...

Axis Direct

Electrifying 2W Sales in March – Bajaj Auto Takes the Lead

​March saw a surge in electric two-wheeler sales. Bajaj Auto Ltd and TVS Motor are top picks in the category. Ola Electric, despite high volumes,...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Automobile Industry FY25: Expectations for Different Verticals

​Mixed performance expected in FY25 for automobile industry with strong growth in tractors, moderate increases in 2W’s and PV’s, and slight decline...

Nimish Maheshwari

March'25 saw surge in EV 2W sales, but mid-April registrations show a significant decline in volumes, with Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor experiencing...

March saw a surge in electric two-wheeler sales. Bajaj Auto Ltd and TVS Motor are top picks in the category. Ola Electric, despite high volumes,...

Mixed performance expected in FY25 for automobile industry with strong growth in tractors, moderate increases in 2W’s and PV’s, and slight decline...