Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following the introduction of 45 stocks in the F&amp;O segment from 29 November, there will be big capping changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 21.9% leading to a one-way trade of INR 75bn (US$881m). There are 25 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>There could be changes to the index methodology announced in the next few months and that could result in the deletion of a couple of constituents in March.</li>
</ul>


Following the introduction of 45 stocks in the F&amp;O segment from 29 November, there will be big capping changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in December.
We estimate one-way turnover of 21.9% leading to a one-way trade of INR 75bn (US$881m). There are 25 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
There could be changes to the index methodology announced in the next few months and that could result in the deletion of a couple of constituents in March.


Nifty Next50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Capping Flows in December; Methodology Change Coming?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Nov’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic 2W industry witnessed a decline in volume growth of 1% YoY and 26% MoM, while total exports grew by 32% YoY and remained flat MoM.</li><li>Domestic PV sales grew by 6-7% YoY (down 11% MoM), largely due to weakness in Hyundai and Honda, partially offset by strong domestic SUV volumes from Toyota, M&amp;M, and MG.</li><li>The domestic CV industry sales were flat YoY (down 20% MoM), mainly due to lower MHCV truck volumes, which were partially offset by high bus volumes.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nov’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic 2W industry witnessed a decline in volume growth of 1% YoY and 26% MoM, while total exports grew by 32% YoY and remained flat MoM.Domestic PV sales grew by 6-7% YoY (down 11% MoM), largely due to weakness in Hyundai and Honda, partially offset by strong domestic SUV volumes from Toyota, M&amp;M, and MG.The domestic CV industry sales were flat YoY (down 20% MoM), mainly due to lower MHCV truck volumes, which were partially offset by high bus volumes.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Monthly Auto Volume Update - November 2024

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric(OLAELEC IN)</a> ’s management, during Investor call, seemed confident in driving volume growth through expanded distribution, new model launches, and focused on technology upgrades and vertical integration for cost advantages.</li>
<li>The company, however, remains intent on continuing its disruptor play strategy of aggressive discounts and competitive pricing to drive volume growth—uncommon in India’s auto sector.</li>
<li>Investors seeking profitability and capital returns will need patience (and faith in Ola's strategy), while competitors like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd(BJAUT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor(TVSL IN)</a>  may feel the pressure.</li>
</ul>



Ola Electric(OLAELEC IN) ’s management, during Investor call, seemed confident in driving volume growth through expanded distribution, new model launches, and focused on technology upgrades and vertical integration for cost advantages.
The company, however, remains intent on continuing its disruptor play strategy of aggressive discounts and competitive pricing to drive volume growth—uncommon in India’s auto sector.
Investors seeking profitability and capital returns will need patience (and faith in Ola's strategy), while competitors like Bajaj Auto Ltd(BJAUT IN) and TVS Motor(TVSL IN)  may feel the pressure.


OLA Electric: Wimpy Quarter. But, Bigger Question—How Long Will the Disruptor Play Last?

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>We continue our earnings coverage highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention in the conference calls.</li>
<li>Names in this auto-focused edition include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> .</li>
<li>Bearish names include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/escorts-kubota-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6773:1" rel="noopener">Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a> as a potential name to be bullish on.</li>
</ul>


We continue our earnings coverage highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention in the conference calls.
Names in this auto-focused edition include Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN), Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN), Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN), Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) .
Bearish names include Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) , Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN) and Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) as a potential name to be bullish on.


Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Autos

<ul><li>Oct’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic 2W industry witnessed strong volume growth of ~11% YoY and 6% MoM, while total exports were up by 23% YoY and 2% MoM, respectively.</li><li>Domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) grew by 1-3% YoY (up 10-12% MoM), led by strong volumes in Toyota, M&amp;M, Kia, and MG, which were partly offset by weakness in MSIL and Honda while tata motors and Hyundai witnessed flat volumes.</li><li>The domestic CV industry sales were flat YoY (up 9% MoM), mainly due to lower MHCV truck volumes, which were offset by high bus volumes. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Oct’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic 2W industry witnessed strong volume growth of ~11% YoY and 6% MoM, while total exports were up by 23% YoY and 2% MoM, respectively.Domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) grew by 1-3% YoY (up 10-12% MoM), led by strong volumes in Toyota, M&amp;M, Kia, and MG, which were partly offset by weakness in MSIL and Honda while tata motors and Hyundai witnessed flat volumes.The domestic CV industry sales were flat YoY (up 9% MoM), mainly due to lower MHCV truck volumes, which were offset by high bus volumes. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Monthly Auto Volume Update - Automotive Industry - October 2024

India

TVS Motor Company Limited manufactures motorcycles, mopeds, and scooters. The Company provides spark ignition operated outboard motors, combustion spark ignition engines, critical engines, and transmission parts. TVS Motor Company serves customers in India.

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TVS Motor (TVSL IN)

Nifty Next50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Capping Flows in December; Methodology Change Coming?

The introduction of new F&O contracts will result in an estimated 21.9% turnover and a one-way trade of INR 75bn (US$881m) for the Nifty Next50...

Brian Freitas

Monthly Auto Volume Update - November 2024

Nov’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic 2W industry witnessed a decline in volume growth of 1% YoY and 26% MoM, while total exports grew by 32% YoY...

Axis Direct

OLA Electric: Wimpy Quarter. But, Bigger Question—How Long Will the Disruptor Play Last?

Ola seems intent on continuing its disruptor play strategy—aggressive pricing to drive volume growth, uncommon in India’s auto sector. Investors...

Devi Subhakesan

Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Autos

We highlight key earnings and call takeaways from companies like Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki India, Ola Electric, and Tata Motors.

Pranav Bhavsar

Monthly Auto Volume Update - Automotive Industry - October 2024

The domestic 2W industry witnessed strong volume growth of ~11% YoY and 6% MoM, while total exports were up by 23% YoY and 2% MoM, respectively.

Axis Direct

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