Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Elon Musk has apparently sent a letter to Bret Taylor, Chairman of the Board of Twitter, saying he would make a bid for 100% of Twitter at US$54.20/share. </li>
<li>Get it? Get it? Nudge nudge wink wink. That's all part of the fun for him. </li>
<li>The question is whether this bid, which creates problems of whether one should take it seriously vs literally, or vice versa, engenders more discussion about how the platform makes money.</li>
</ul>


Elon Musk has apparently sent a letter to Bret Taylor, Chairman of the Board of Twitter, saying he would make a bid for 100% of Twitter at US$54.20/share. 
Get it? Get it? Nudge nudge wink wink. That's all part of the fun for him. 
The question is whether this bid, which creates problems of whether one should take it seriously vs literally, or vice versa, engenders more discussion about how the platform makes money.


TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Since Elon Musk bought his 9.2% stake in Twitter, the stock is up 30%</li>
<li>We are doubtful Musk can alter the trajectory of Twitter’s slow product development and weak monetization of direct response advertising and SMB customers.  </li>
<li>Twitter trades 6.5x forward sales / 61x forward earnings / 28x forward EV/EBITDA while Facebook trades 4.5x / 19x / 10x those same metrics…essentially 1/3rd the valuation on earnings.</li>
</ul>


Since Elon Musk bought his 9.2% stake in Twitter, the stock is up 30%
We are doubtful Musk can alter the trajectory of Twitter’s slow product development and weak monetization of direct response advertising and SMB customers.  
Twitter trades 6.5x forward sales / 61x forward earnings / 28x forward EV/EBITDA while Facebook trades 4.5x / 19x / 10x those same metrics…essentially 1/3rd the valuation on earnings.


Musk Buys Twitter, You Should Buy Facebook

Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

<ul><li>This morning I had two of my larger holdings, Starbucks and Twitter, become embroiled in headlines. It was announced this morning that Twitter has a new shareholder, Elon Musk</li><li>And Starbucks would be axing their $20B buyback program as Howard Schultz looks to make a stamp on his welcoming party.</li><li>Shares of Twitter were trading as high as +26% in the early pre-market hours this morning, after an SEC filing from Twitter shows that Elon Musk, founder and current CEO of Tesla has acquired a "passive" but sizeable 9.2% ownership stake of Twitter (~73.5M shares).</li></ul>

This morning I had two of my larger holdings, Starbucks and Twitter, become embroiled in headlines. It was announced this morning that Twitter has a new shareholder, Elon MuskAnd Starbucks would be axing their $20B buyback program as Howard Schultz looks to make a stamp on his welcoming party.Shares of Twitter were trading as high as +26% in the early pre-market hours this morning, after an SEC filing from Twitter shows that Elon Musk, founder and current CEO of Tesla has acquired a "passive" but sizeable 9.2% ownership stake of Twitter (~73.5M shares).

Elon Buys 9.2% of Twitter, and Starbucks Suspend $20B Buyback Program

<ul>
<li>Snapchat largely dispelled the Apple bear case, and should return to the mid $60s.</li>
<li>Actual competitive differentiation vs. TikTok and Facebook means Snapchat's user growth and engagement remain strong.</li>
<li>Revenue growth will reaccelerate as it works through IDFA, but international monetization is the kicker.</li>
</ul>


Snapchat largely dispelled the Apple bear case, and should return to the mid $60s.
Actual competitive differentiation vs. TikTok and Facebook means Snapchat's user growth and engagement remain strong.
Revenue growth will reaccelerate as it works through IDFA, but international monetization is the kicker.


Snapchat 4Q21: A Quick Turnaround…And Why Facebook Didn’t Snapback

<ul>
<li>5 Issues: Tough Comps, Supply Chain Disruptions, Reels MixShift, Apple IDFA, and TikTok...thats alot of issues</li>
<li>TikTok is pressuring engagement and Google is taking Facebook's advertising revenues.</li>
<li>Strong management team with history of executing at a trough valuation provides a good entry point. But may make more sense to just buy Google.</li>
</ul>


5 Issues: Tough Comps, Supply Chain Disruptions, Reels MixShift, Apple IDFA, and TikTok...thats alot of issues
TikTok is pressuring engagement and Google is taking Facebook's advertising revenues.
Strong management team with history of executing at a trough valuation provides a good entry point. But may make more sense to just buy Google.


Facebook 4Q21: Trending on TikTok ‘How to Lose $200B in Market Cap’

United States

Twitter, Inc. provides online social networking and microblogging service. The Company offers users the ability to follow other users activity, read, and post tweets. Twitter serves customers worldwide.

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Twitter Inc (TWTR US)

Elon Musk Bids for All of Twitter 🤯

10 days after reporting a 9% stake and 5 days after deciding not to take a board seat, Elon Musk has made a non-binding "best/final" bid for...

Travis Lundy

Musk Buys Twitter, You Should Buy Facebook

Why buy Twitter hoping Elon Musk can solve slow product development, and weak monetization of direct response advertising, when you can buy a re...

Aaron Gabin

Elon Buys 9.2% of Twitter, and Starbucks Suspend $20B Buyback Program

This morning I had two of my larger holdings, Starbucks and Twitter, become embroiled in headlines. It was announced this morning that Twitter has...

Investment Talk

Snapchat 4Q21: A Quick Turnaround…And Why Facebook Didn’t Snapback

With Snapchat's LT thesis restored, we would buy the stock even up 50%. A return to its 5 yr P/S average of 14x would equate to $66 on 2023 revenues.

Aaron Gabin

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Elon Musk Bids for All of Twitter 🤯

10 days after reporting a 9% stake and 5 days after deciding not to take a board seat, Elon Musk has made a non-binding "best/final" bid for...

Travis Lundy

Musk Buys Twitter, You Should Buy Facebook

Why buy Twitter hoping Elon Musk can solve slow product development, and weak monetization of direct response advertising, when you can buy a re...

Aaron Gabin

Elon Buys 9.2% of Twitter, and Starbucks Suspend $20B Buyback Program

This morning I had two of my larger holdings, Starbucks and Twitter, become embroiled in headlines. It was announced this morning that Twitter has...

Investment Talk

Snapchat 4Q21: A Quick Turnaround…And Why Facebook Didn’t Snapback

With Snapchat's LT thesis restored, we would buy the stock even up 50%. A return to its 5 yr P/S average of 14x would equate to $66 on 2023 revenues.

Aaron Gabin

Facebook 4Q21: Trending on TikTok ‘How to Lose $200B in Market Cap’

TikTok's threat doesn’t impact the wave of monetization opportunities related to commerce, messaging, and the metaverse. FB trading at the same...

Aaron Gabin