Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Takeaways: Divergence between Fed and ISM sentiment. OPEC cuts and manufacturing bullish oil?</li>
<li>More ground to cover for Powell to be reflected in USD strength</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">We have built a sentiment tracker that uses FOMC minutes and speeches of Fed members as data and assigns positive and negative scores to adjectives in order to gauge what the Fed’s sentiment on the economy is.</span></li>
</ul>


Takeaways: Divergence between Fed and ISM sentiment. OPEC cuts and manufacturing bullish oil?
More ground to cover for Powell to be reflected in USD strength
We have built a sentiment tracker that uses FOMC minutes and speeches of Fed members as data and assigns positive and negative scores to adjectives in order to gauge what the Fed’s sentiment on the economy is.


Services Nugget: How Do the Central Banks React?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>This week’s theme is the weakening in the services sector amidst manufacturing potentially looking to rebound.</li><li>We aim to cover all asset classes, what to buy, what to sell, and what to expect next in the months to come when it comes to both US and global PMI’s.</li><li>Today’s services PMI’s from the EZ showed further signs of the European services sector weakening, with both Spain and Italy surprising to the downside of expectations of a &gt;50 reading.</li></ul>

This week’s theme is the weakening in the services sector amidst manufacturing potentially looking to rebound.We aim to cover all asset classes, what to buy, what to sell, and what to expect next in the months to come when it comes to both US and global PMI’s.Today’s services PMI’s from the EZ showed further signs of the European services sector weakening, with both Spain and Italy surprising to the downside of expectations of a &gt;50 reading.

Services Week: What to Buy if Manufacturing Rebounds While Services Weaken?

<ul>
<li>Welcome to this short and sweet Energy Watch on the back of the Saudi/Russian decision to prolong cuts of supply through Q4.</li>
<li>It leaves a smell of 2022 in the air and we note how the USD, bond yields AND energy/commodity prices move up in tandem.</li>
<li>An odd cocktail, which can only happen, when Zars and Muftis are in charge of the supply/demand balance in global energy markets.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to this short and sweet Energy Watch on the back of the Saudi/Russian decision to prolong cuts of supply through Q4.
It leaves a smell of 2022 in the air and we note how the USD, bond yields AND energy/commodity prices move up in tandem.
An odd cocktail, which can only happen, when Zars and Muftis are in charge of the supply/demand balance in global energy markets.


Energy Watch: Can Oil Rally 25% Further in Q4?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We highlighted, analyzed and traded the Manufacturing bottom during the early parts of July during our Business Cycle Week, which proved to be a very well-timed rotational call.</li>
<li>The spread between Manufacturing and Services is highly cyclical and driven largely by relative changes in the cost and input structure of companies.</li>
<li>Our thesis is currently that the shift in input cost structures will start to favour Manufacturing over Services in coming quarters, also as goods prices have started to come down, making them relatively cheaper to services from a consumption standpoint.</li>
</ul>


We highlighted, analyzed and traded the Manufacturing bottom during the early parts of July during our Business Cycle Week, which proved to be a very well-timed rotational call.
The spread between Manufacturing and Services is highly cyclical and driven largely by relative changes in the cost and input structure of companies.
Our thesis is currently that the shift in input cost structures will start to favour Manufacturing over Services in coming quarters, also as goods prices have started to come down, making them relatively cheaper to services from a consumption standpoint.


Services Week: Will Services Now Turn into the Weakest Link of the Economy?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Services Nugget: How Do the Central Banks React?

Takeaways: Divergence between Fed and ISM sentimentOPEC cuts and manufacturing bullish oil? More ground to cover for Powell to be reflected in USD...

Steno Research

Services Week: What to Buy if Manufacturing Rebounds While Services Weaken?

This week’s theme is the weakening in the services sector amidst manufacturing potentially looking to rebound. We aim to cover all asset classes,...

Steno Research

Energy Watch: Can Oil Rally 25% Further in Q4?

Welcome to this short and sweet Energy Watch on the back of the Saudi/Russian decision to prolong cuts of supply through Q4. It leaves a smell of...

Steno Research

Services Week: Will Services Now Turn into the Weakest Link of the Economy?

We highlighted, analyzed and traded the Manufacturing bottom during the early parts of July during our Business Cycle Week, which proved to be a...

Steno Research

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)