CEO, ByteTree Asset Management

ByteTree Asset Management

Data-Driven Analysis of Cryptocurrency Markets

Kaiko

Kaiko is the leading cryptocurrency market data provider for institutional investors and enterprises. We empower market participants with accurate, transparent, and actionable financial data to be leveraged for a range of market activities. Kaiko’s mission is to be the foundation of the new digital finance economy by serving as a single source for market information. Our mission is premised on the idea that high-quality data drives market efficiency and greater transparency throughout the industry. For each of our enterprise clients, we build custom data plans designed for a range of use cases.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Compared to everything else, gold is in good shape, but it is competing with the world’s most liquid currency, that now pays a 5.25% yield while inflation is falling.</li>
<li>The $2,000 breakout was exciting, but the price has now stalled.</li>
<li>US consumer price inflation (CPI) was a little softer last month. The latest reading of 4.9% feels much more comfortable than the 9% we suffered last summer.</li>
</ul>


Compared to everything else, gold is in good shape, but it is competing with the world’s most liquid currency, that now pays a 5.25% yield while inflation is falling.
The $2,000 breakout was exciting, but the price has now stalled.
US consumer price inflation (CPI) was a little softer last month. The latest reading of 4.9% feels much more comfortable than the 9% we suffered last summer.


Specialising in Bitcoin, Gold and Digital Assets

Investment Manager specialising in bitcoin, gold and digital assets

Crypto

<p>The US dollar has made a 20-day high as it passes above the blue max line. Price is above both moving averages, which are positively sloping. That’s a 5-star trend.&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Dollar Bull</h3>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/293/027/original/image_62932734521660936839995.png?1660936841" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="293027"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Bloomberg</div>
<p>When the dollar goes up like this, other currencies fall, and in this week’s&nbsp;ATOMIC, I highlighted the weakening Renminbi. It’s just one of those things that when the CNH falls, it’s rarely never good for crypto.</p>
<h3>Beware of a Falling Renminbi</h3>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/293/028/original/image_40615371231660936875079.png?1660936875" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="293028"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Bloomberg</div>
<p>The last couple of days have seen a sharp deterioration in crypto breadth. There is not a single 5-star trend, just five 4-star trends, and a deteriorating number of 3-stars. A quarter of the space is now in a (0-star) downtrend.</p>
<h3>Red Skies Return</h3>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/293/044/original/image_53177563041660936912135.png?1660936913" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="293044"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source:&nbsp;<a href="https://bytetree.us3.list-manage.com/track/click?u=a4a4461fba9ee073aaefd6019&amp;id=17cf31e57b&amp;e=7c019babf2" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://bytetree.us3.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3Da4a4461fba9ee073aaefd6019%26id%3D17cf31e57b%26e%3D7c019babf2&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1661023179877000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0_E7TSli3erGrE0W6-Qztx" rel="noopener">ByteTree Terminal</a></div>
<p>The stockmarket has ignored the dollar strength thus far, but as you already know, crypto is a leading indicator. In this bear market rally, or a new bull market, as some believe, there are still very few strong trends in dollar terms.&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Will the Red Skies Appear Like They Just Did in Crypto?</h3>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/293/045/original/image_7004189451660936946113.png?1660936947" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="293045"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source:&nbsp;<a href="https://bytetree.us3.list-manage.com/track/click?u=a4a4461fba9ee073aaefd6019&amp;id=136a50de94&amp;e=7c019babf2" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://bytetree.us3.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3Da4a4461fba9ee073aaefd6019%26id%3D136a50de94%26e%3D7c019babf2&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1661023179877000&amp;usg=AOvVaw27YDAogXHXM6E3OLi5cqiD" rel="noopener">ByteTree Terminal</a></div>
<p>Of course, this year, crypto and stocks have been correlated, and crypto tends to lead markets. In that sense, crypto is the canary in the coalmine. If so, expect to see the red skies in crypto appear in equities.<br><br>One example of a weak market is China (again). While stocks have recovered since June, China has lagged. Big problems always start somewhere, and you have to wonder if this great nation will play host to the next financial crisis.<br>&nbsp;<br>When a region or a sector persistently lags the global market, as China is currently doing, it generally ends badly.</p>
<h3>China Lags the World</h3>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/293/046/original/image_84660497361660936980790.png?1660936982" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="293046"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source:&nbsp;<a href="https://bytetree.us3.list-manage.com/track/click?u=a4a4461fba9ee073aaefd6019&amp;id=76bfd30d3b&amp;e=7c019babf2" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://bytetree.us3.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3Da4a4461fba9ee073aaefd6019%26id%3D76bfd30d3b%26e%3D7c019babf2&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1661023179877000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2iQ6uAX10PqeKl6214sJ9J" rel="noopener">ByteTree Terminal</a></div>
<p>We have no doubt that crypto is the asset class with the brightest future, while the traditional financial system rests on weak foundations. Balancing this journey is critical, and we are excited to be increasing our coverage of traditional finance, exploring how the old world sits with the new.</p>

The US dollar has made a 20-day high as it passes above the blue max line. Price is above both moving averages, which are positively sloping. That’s a 5-star trend.&nbsp;
Dollar Bull

Source: Bloomberg
When the dollar goes up like this, other currencies fall, and in this week’s&nbsp;ATOMIC, I highlighted the weakening Renminbi. It’s just one of those things that when the CNH falls, it’s rarely never good for crypto.
Beware of a Falling Renminbi

Source: Bloomberg
The last couple of days have seen a sharp deterioration in crypto breadth. There is not a single 5-star trend, just five 4-star trends, and a deteriorating number of 3-stars. A quarter of the space is now in a (0-star) downtrend.
Red Skies Return

Source:&nbsp;ByteTree Terminal
The stockmarket has ignored the dollar strength thus far, but as you already know, crypto is a leading indicator. In this bear market rally, or a new bull market, as some believe, there are still very few strong trends in dollar terms.&nbsp;
Will the Red Skies Appear Like They Just Did in Crypto?

Source:&nbsp;ByteTree Terminal
Of course, this year, crypto and stocks have been correlated, and crypto tends to lead markets. In that sense, crypto is the canary in the coalmine. If so, expect to see the red skies in crypto appear in equities.  One example of a weak market is China (again). While stocks have recovered since June, China has lagged. Big problems always start somewhere, and you have to wonder if this great nation will play host to the next financial crisis. &nbsp; When a region or a sector persistently lags the global market, as China is currently doing, it generally ends badly.
China Lags the World

Source:&nbsp;ByteTree Terminal
We have no doubt that crypto is the asset class with the brightest future, while the traditional financial system rests on weak foundations. Balancing this journey is critical, and we are excited to be increasing our coverage of traditional finance, exploring how the old world sits with the new.

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Prepare for the Dollar Rally

Compared to everything else, gold is in good shape, but it is competing with the world’s most liquid currency, that now pays a 5.25% yield while...

ByteTree Asset Management

I Blame the Dollar

The US dollar has made a 20-day high as it passes above the blue max line. Price is above both moving averages, which are positively sloping....

ByteTree Asset Management