Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. </li>
<li>These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.</li>
<li>Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.</li>
</ul>


Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. 
These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.
Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.


Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Over the past several weeks Gold &amp; Silver should have gone lower in the face of hawkish central banks and rising yields</li>
<li>The USD should also have gone much higher. Neither transpired and we now sit here with almost 4 hikes priced for this year by the Fed.</li>
<li>Sometimes it is as important to identify what a market does NOT do rather than what it does...</li>
</ul>


Over the past several weeks Gold &amp; Silver should have gone lower in the face of hawkish central banks and rising yields
The USD should also have gone much higher. Neither transpired and we now sit here with almost 4 hikes priced for this year by the Fed.
Sometimes it is as important to identify what a market does NOT do rather than what it does...


Bullion – “Should Have, Would Have, Didn’t, so Won’t.”

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>DXY bullish flat set to break higher to DXY 98. USD in EM has met pullback targets that allows for a fresh rally cycle in January.</li>
<li>USD in Asia has met key long support with some undershooting in the SGD and INR.</li>
<li>A fresh USD rally in EM supports our bearish EEM theme that aligns with our bearish China/HK bet. US 10yr yield is geared for a major breakout above 1.69%.</li>
</ul>


DXY bullish flat set to break higher to DXY 98. USD in EM has met pullback targets that allows for a fresh rally cycle in January.
USD in Asia has met key long support with some undershooting in the SGD and INR.
A fresh USD rally in EM supports our bearish EEM theme that aligns with our bearish China/HK bet. US 10yr yield is geared for a major breakout above 1.69%.


Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>I explore the 2021 winners and losers among EM currencies, leading into the discussion on which of these performances were appropriate and which currencies may offer opportunities this year.</li>
<li>The currencies to track this year for opportunities to buy are Chilean peso and Peruvian sol, and to sell are Colombian peso and South African rand. </li>
<li>Among currencies that already look appealing to buy are the Indian rupee and the Thai baht, while the Chinese yuan and the Czech koruna appear expensive.</li>
</ul>


I explore the 2021 winners and losers among EM currencies, leading into the discussion on which of these performances were appropriate and which currencies may offer opportunities this year.
The currencies to track this year for opportunities to buy are Chilean peso and Peruvian sol, and to sell are Colombian peso and South African rand. 
Among currencies that already look appealing to buy are the Indian rupee and the Thai baht, while the Chinese yuan and the Czech koruna appear expensive.


Not All Winners Are Equal: 2021 EM FX Outliers and Implications for 2022

<ul>
<li>I reiterate the risk that the dollar can strengthen in the near term by being on one of the two ends of the dollar smile, thus weighing on EM currencies.</li>
<li>On the positive side, the dollar strengthening should not last since the currency is already expensive in REER terms. Also, long speculative positions in the dollar are already quite heavy.</li>
<li>Since positions tend to follow dollar moves, whenever the dollar starts weakening, the unwinding of long positions can exacerbate the move, making it a supportive environment for EM currencies.</li>
</ul>


I reiterate the risk that the dollar can strengthen in the near term by being on one of the two ends of the dollar smile, thus weighing on EM currencies.
On the positive side, the dollar strengthening should not last since the currency is already expensive in REER terms. Also, long speculative positions in the dollar are already quite heavy.
Since positions tend to follow dollar moves, whenever the dollar starts weakening, the unwinding of long positions can exacerbate the move, making it a supportive environment for EM currencies.


Speculative Long Dollar Positions Highest Since 2019

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a...

Vermilion Research

Bullion – “Should Have, Would Have, Didn’t, so Won’t.”

There have been lots of reasons for Gold & Silver to trend down recently. However they have both remained resilient. It is thus time to re-examine...

Shyam Devani

USD to Break Higher

DXY bullish flat set to break higher to DXY 98. USD in EM has met pullback targets that allows for a fresh rally cycle in January.

Thomas Schroeder

Not All Winners Are Equal: 2021 EM FX Outliers and Implications for 2022

I explore the 2021 winners and losers among EM currencies, leading into the discussion on which of these performances were appropriate and which...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Speculative Long Dollar Positions Highest Since 2019

Long speculative positions in the dollar are quite heavy implying that whenever the dollar starts weakening, the unwinding of long positions can...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)