Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Over the past 20 years, Thailand faced two financial crisis, namely Tom Yum Goong in 1997 and Lehman in 2008. Discounting the political nonsense that is just part of life down here, we think there are five important lessons to take away, regarding: 1) the importance of investors; 2) liabilities-cash flow matching; 3) sticking to core competencies as well as avoiding : 4) currency pegs to dollars (or any currency); and 5) capital controls. No event in Thai business history has transformed the landscape more than the 1997 crisis. In this review, we highlight a few anecdotes of those who survived and those who didn't (at least not in their original forms).

Over the past 20 years, Thailand faced two financial crisis, namely Tom Yum Goong in 1997 and Lehman in 2008. Discounting the political nonsense that is just part of life down here, we think there are five important lessons to take away, regarding: 1) the importance of investors; 2) liabilities-cash flow matching; 3) sticking to core competencies as well as avoiding : 4) currency pegs to dollars (or any currency); and 5) capital controls. No event in Thai business history has transformed the landscape more than the 1997 crisis. In this review, we highlight a few anecdotes of those who survived and those who didn't (at least not in their original forms).

Five Biggest Lessons from Thai Financial Crisis

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej (Rama IX) passed away at Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok yesterday, 13 October 2016, at 3.52pm. Our condolences to all our Thai friends in your time of grief.Thailand is sailing into unchartered waters, considering that nearly everyone alive has only known one King and that his fiat power was immense, built up over years of devotion to the country.We expect that the Thai stock market will be hurt in the near term, but will eventually stabilize.

His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej (Rama IX) passed away at Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok yesterday, 13 October 2016, at 3.52pm. Our condolences to all our Thai friends in your time of grief.Thailand is sailing into unchartered waters, considering that nearly everyone alive has only known one King and that his fiat power was immense, built up over years of devotion to the country.We expect that the Thai stock market will be hurt in the near term, but will eventually stabilize.

Thailand Mourns Fallen King, Healing Will Take Some Time

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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<ul>
<li>Obama continues the 'pivot to Asia' by attending the ASEAN meeting in Laos.</li>
<li>ASEAN is a critical component of SE Asian stability, partnership with the US and should be a united front in protesting Chinese intrusions into the South China Sea.</li>
<li>A high-profile spat with Philippine president Duterte was an unfortunate distraction and an unhelpful development for the Philippines which benefits from strong U.S. support.</li>
<li>Thailand and Malaysia look like the best opportunities in ASEAN in the medium-term.</li>
<li>BUY…</li>
</ul>


Obama continues the 'pivot to Asia' by attending the ASEAN meeting in Laos.
ASEAN is a critical component of SE Asian stability, partnership with the US and should be a united front in protesting Chinese intrusions into the South China Sea.
A high-profile spat with Philippine president Duterte was an unfortunate distraction and an unhelpful development for the Philippines which benefits from strong U.S. support.
Thailand and Malaysia look like the best opportunities in ASEAN in the medium-term.
BUY…


Takeaways from ASEAN - Investment Opportunities

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Event-Driven

Uawithya has requested shareholder approval to divest three of its renewable power subsidiaries at bargain basement prices. One of the worst investments in our portfolio (down over 60%), these are some of the deal's key points:<ul>
<li>
Business. The founding family has long sold out the current group, the Leenbanjong family. Management argues that since they lack expertise in renewables, they should divest them and refocus on the original business in telecom towers and industrial products trading while also reducing debt.</li>
<li>
The Deal. UWC will sell three subsidiaries (UKB, UAB, and SBM) to ACE for less than Bt200m and well as shareholder loans from UWC for Bt150m, netting a loss of Bt520m.</li>
<li>
The independent advice. Capital Advantage values the three businesses at Bt449m. At that price, the impairment would only be Bt116m, and some Bt360m of debts could be paid down.</li>
<li>
Our Take. While we agree that with the divestment conceptually if management is no longer confident of their own expertise, we think they should do a better job on pricing, so we rejected the deal in hopes that they would hold out for a better price from ACE.</li>
</ul>

Uawithya has requested shareholder approval to divest three of its renewable power subsidiaries at bargain basement prices. One of the worst investments in our portfolio (down over 60%), these are some of the deal's key points:

Business. The founding family has long sold out the current group, the Leenbanjong family. Management argues that since they lack expertise in renewables, they should divest them and refocus on the original business in telecom towers and industrial products trading while also reducing debt.

The Deal. UWC will sell three subsidiaries (UKB, UAB, and SBM) to ACE for less than Bt200m and well as shareholder loans from UWC for Bt150m, netting a loss of Bt520m.

The independent advice. Capital Advantage values the three businesses at Bt449m. At that price, the impairment would only be Bt116m, and some Bt360m of debts could be paid down.

Our Take. While we agree that with the divestment conceptually if management is no longer confident of their own expertise, we think they should do a better job on pricing, so we rejected the deal in hopes that they would hold out for a better price from ACE.


Mechanics and Details of the Uawithya Subsidiaries Divestment

Thailand

Sky Tower Public Company Limited (STOWER) is Thailand's first high-voltage transmission tower manufacturer and a leading telecommunication tower manufacturer. The company designs, manufactures, and installs steel structures for transmission lines, substations, and telecommunication towers for mobile network operators. Additionally, Sky Tower offers galvanizing services, steel fabrication, distribution of industrial products, and manages biomass and renewable energy businesses. Headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, the company was founded in 1967.

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Sky Tower (STOWER TB)

Five Biggest Lessons from Thai Financial Crisis

Over the past 20 years, Thailand faced two financial crisis, namely Tom Yum Goong in 1997 and Lehman in 2008. Discounting the political nonsense...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thailand Mourns Fallen King, Healing Will Take Some Time

His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej (Rama IX) passed away at Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok yesterday, 13 October 2016, at 3.52pm. Our condolences to...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Takeaways from ASEAN - Investment Opportunities

Obama continues the 'pivot to Asia' by attending the ASEAN meeting in Laos. ASEAN is a critical component of SE Asian stability, partnership with...

David Riedel

Mechanics and Details of the Uawithya Subsidiaries Divestment

Uawithya has requested shareholder approval to divest three of its renewable power subsidiaries at bargain basement prices. One of the worst...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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