Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Softbank Group shares fell 5% which seems like an outsize move relative to the overall markets (TOPIX -2%, NASDAQ -0.5%) but that does come off a record low discount (-16%). And whilst that has expanded to 20% it remains far better than the 27% discount when the company reported Q3 results on 8 Feb. One big difference is the Coupang IPO filing which implies at least $10bn in upside for Vision Fund based on aspirational pricing. If tech sentiment decidedly turns, the lost potential is probably as relevant for Softbank shares as today’s absolute downside for Vision Fund (-$1bn) and Alibaba (-2%, ~$2bn).</p>

Softbank Group shares fell 5% which seems like an outsize move relative to the overall markets (TOPIX -2%, NASDAQ -0.5%) but that does come off a record low discount (-16%). And whilst that has expanded to 20% it remains far better than the 27% discount when the company reported Q3 results on 8 Feb. One big difference is the Coupang IPO filing which implies at least $10bn in upside for Vision Fund based on aspirational pricing. If tech sentiment decidedly turns, the lost potential is probably as relevant for Softbank shares as today’s absolute downside for Vision Fund (-$1bn) and Alibaba (-2%, ~$2bn).

Softbank Group: Jitters in a Frothy Market

Technology augmented investing

Lazarus Goh

Augmenting fundamental investing with technology

Open Diligence

We aim to a) increase the efficacy of investment processes with technology and b) utilize alternative data to gain an additional perspective on equity names

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>We programmatically scanned through all company filings in the US to find companies that have exposure to the autonomous driving thematic play. The output is 45 companies that have varying relevance across the autonomous driving value chain.</p>

We programmatically scanned through all company filings in the US to find companies that have exposure to the autonomous driving thematic play. The output is 45 companies that have varying relevance across the autonomous driving value chain.

"Autonomous Driving" Thematic Exposure and Where to Find Them (Autos)

<p>As expected, the IPO of DoorDash and a recovery in sentiment for Uber drove huge gains for Vision Fund in Q3 as that investment segment came roaring back. The asset management business, which handles proceeds from asset sales, posted less impressive results however with another quarter of close to $3bn (¥285bn) in losses from derivative trading. Softbank reiterated today that it is an investment company and bright talk on Vision Fund 2 probably means that has more to with new ideas and less with its own shares or a “slow-burn” MBO. Investors bidding up shares to a new 21-year high before the report after the market close were probably looking for more.    </p>

As expected, the IPO of DoorDash and a recovery in sentiment for Uber drove huge gains for Vision Fund in Q3 as that investment segment came roaring back. The asset management business, which handles proceeds from asset sales, posted less impressive results however with another quarter of close to $3bn (¥285bn) in losses from derivative trading. Softbank reiterated today that it is an investment company and bright talk on Vision Fund 2 probably means that has more to with new ideas and less with its own shares or a “slow-burn” MBO. Investors bidding up shares to a new 21-year high before the report after the market close were probably looking for more.    

Softbank Group Q3 20 Results: Well-Flagged VF Gains but Derivative Losses Remain a Drag

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dida-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29701:1" rel="noopener">Dida (DIDA HK)</a> operates the largest carpooling marketplace in China with a market share of 66.5% as measured by the number of carpooling rides in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Dida is seeking listing approval to raise $500 million through a Hong Kong listing, according to press reports.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dida-ipo-initiation-sharing-a-lift" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47652" rel="noopener">Dida IPO Initiation: Sharing a Lift</a>, we opined that Dida is an attractive new economy company that combines high growth with profitability and cash generation. Consequently, Dida warrants a closer look. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Dida's valuation. </p></div></div></div>

Dida (DIDA HK) operates the largest carpooling marketplace in China with a market share of 66.5% as measured by the number of carpooling rides in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Dida is seeking listing approval to raise $500 million through a Hong Kong listing, according to press reports.In Dida IPO Initiation: Sharing a Lift, we opined that Dida is an attractive new economy company that combines high growth with profitability and cash generation. Consequently, Dida warrants a closer look. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Dida's valuation. 

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dida-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29701:1" rel="noopener">Dida (DIDA HK)</a> operates the largest carpooling marketplace in China with a market share of 66.5% as measured by the number of carpooling rides in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Dida is seeking listing approval to raise $500 million through a Hong Kong listing, according to press reports. Dida is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a>’s founder (Mr Bin Li), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bitauto-holdings-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12004:1" rel="noopener">Bitauto Holdings (BITA US)</a>, Hillhouse Capital, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a>. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Dida is a play on China’s carpooling market which is an increasingly accepted mobility option in China. In recent years, Chinese regulators have released various policies and guidelines to tackle traffic congestion and carbon emissions, including a commitment to promote carpooling under a regulatory framework. Dida is an attractive new economy company that combines high growth with profitability and cash generation. Consequently, Dida warrants a closer look.   </p></div>

Dida (DIDA HK) operates the largest carpooling marketplace in China with a market share of 66.5% as measured by the number of carpooling rides in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Dida is seeking listing approval to raise $500 million through a Hong Kong listing, according to press reports. Dida is backed by NIO Inc (NIO US)’s founder (Mr Bin Li), Bitauto Holdings (BITA US), Hillhouse Capital, JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) and Trip.com (TCOM US). Dida is a play on China’s carpooling market which is an increasingly accepted mobility option in China. In recent years, Chinese regulators have released various policies and guidelines to tackle traffic congestion and carbon emissions, including a commitment to promote carpooling under a regulatory framework. Dida is an attractive new economy company that combines high growth with profitability and cash generation. Consequently, Dida warrants a closer look.   

United States

Uber Technologies Inc provides ride hailing services. The Company develops applications for road transportation, navigation, ride sharing, and payment processing solutions. Uber Technologies serves customers worldwide.

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Uber Technologies (UBER US)

Softbank Group: Jitters in a Frothy Market

Tech jitters hit Softbank shares which dropped 5% v -1% for NASDAQ. We think the gap is partially explained by the Coupang IPO and low visibility...

Kirk Boodry

"Autonomous Driving" Thematic Exposure and Where to Find Them (Autos)

Which companies have exposure to the autonomous driving value chain? We programmatically scanned through US annual reports and found 45 US...

Lazarus Goh

Softbank Group Q3 20 Results: Well-Flagged VF Gains but Derivative Losses Remain a Drag

Softbank posted robust profits thanks to Vision Fund gains from DoorDash and Uber but public market investments lost money again after another...

Kirk Boodry

Dida IPO: Valuation First Look

Dida is seeking listing approval to raise $500m through a Hong Kong listing. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at...

Arun George

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Softbank Group: Jitters in a Frothy Market

Tech jitters hit Softbank shares which dropped 5% v -1% for NASDAQ. We think the gap is partially explained by the Coupang IPO and low visibility...

Kirk Boodry

"Autonomous Driving" Thematic Exposure and Where to Find Them (Autos)

Which companies have exposure to the autonomous driving value chain? We programmatically scanned through US annual reports and found 45 US...

Lazarus Goh

Softbank Group Q3 20 Results: Well-Flagged VF Gains but Derivative Losses Remain a Drag

Softbank posted robust profits thanks to Vision Fund gains from DoorDash and Uber but public market investments lost money again after another...

Kirk Boodry

Dida IPO: Valuation First Look

Dida is seeking listing approval to raise $500m through a Hong Kong listing. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at...

Arun George

Dida IPO Initiation: Sharing a Lift

Dida is seeking listing approval to raise $500 million through an HK listing. Dida is an attractive new economy company that combines high growth...

Arun George