Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/delisting-deceitful-chinese-companies-act-not-a-slam-dunk-and-has-more-bark-than-bite-if-it-passes" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40025" rel="noopener">"Delisting Deceitful Chinese Companies Act" Not a Slam Dunk and Has More Bark Than Bite if It Passes</a>, I made three "predictions." First, the U.S. House of Representatives would not get around to voting on the "delisting act" before the end of the Congressional session. Second, if the House does vote, it would likely pass the bill. Third, if the bill passes, it would have more bark than bite.As a bloke called Meat Loaf once sung, "two out of three ain't bad."On Wednesday, the House voted and passed Senate Bill 945, titled the "Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act." That the House managed to vote amidst the dual chaos of a raging pandemic and an unhinged President – so close to adjourning this 116th Congress – is a surprise. That it voted to pass S945 is not at all surprising, however, given widespread bi-partisan support for the bill.The real epiphany comes from additional details provided during House testimony just prior to the vote. Not many, but those details that were disclosed (plus the tone in which they were articulated) shed light on how S945 will be implemented and enforced by the SEC, and why foreign issuers and investors should duly-cautious but not overly-concerned. And why this "delisting bill" is ...... more bark than bite.This Insight presents an updated analysis of S945 (general and China/Hong Kong-specific aspects), shares new details provided by Representative Brad Sherman, offers an opinion on the SEC's likely approach to writing and enforcing S945 rules, analyses China/Hong Kong stocks most at risk under S945, and stocks affected by the France/Belgium angle (similar to China/Hong Kong).

In "Delisting Deceitful Chinese Companies Act" Not a Slam Dunk and Has More Bark Than Bite if It Passes, I made three "predictions." First, the U.S. House of Representatives would not get around to voting on the "delisting act" before the end of the Congressional session. Second, if the House does vote, it would likely pass the bill. Third, if the bill passes, it would have more bark than bite.As a bloke called Meat Loaf once sung, "two out of three ain't bad."On Wednesday, the House voted and passed Senate Bill 945, titled the "Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act." That the House managed to vote amidst the dual chaos of a raging pandemic and an unhinged President – so close to adjourning this 116th Congress – is a surprise. That it voted to pass S945 is not at all surprising, however, given widespread bi-partisan support for the bill.The real epiphany comes from additional details provided during House testimony just prior to the vote. Not many, but those details that were disclosed (plus the tone in which they were articulated) shed light on how S945 will be implemented and enforced by the SEC, and why foreign issuers and investors should duly-cautious but not overly-concerned. And why this "delisting bill" is ...... more bark than bite.This Insight presents an updated analysis of S945 (general and China/Hong Kong-specific aspects), shares new details provided by Representative Brad Sherman, offers an opinion on the SEC's likely approach to writing and enforcing S945 rules, analyses China/Hong Kong stocks most at risk under S945, and stocks affected by the France/Belgium angle (similar to China/Hong Kong).

House Passes "Delisting Act" Giving SEC 90 Days to Write Its Rules (And Yes, More Bark Than Bite)

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Two weeks ago, we noted that Labour was making strong in-roads into the Tory lead and if they managed to continue to do that, the election result could start looking very different. That has continued to the point, where it is not unreasonable to ask whether Labour can actually end up forming the next government. Whilst it is extremely unlikely that they can have an overall majority, a left-wing "rainbow" coalition is quite plausible. This report looks at how close Labour is to "winning".

Two weeks ago, we noted that Labour was making strong in-roads into the Tory lead and if they managed to continue to do that, the election result could start looking very different. That has continued to the point, where it is not unreasonable to ask whether Labour can actually end up forming the next government. Whilst it is extremely unlikely that they can have an overall majority, a left-wing "rainbow" coalition is quite plausible. This report looks at how close Labour is to "winning".

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

(As a mark of respect and solidarity with those killed and injured in London on 22 March, I have delayed this note by 24 hours. My sincere condolences to the UK's people for the horrific terrorist outrage at Westminster).Martin McGuinness, the former commander of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) who became a sentinel of peace in Northern Ireland with the Good Friday Agreement (brokered by Bill Clinton in 1998) and served as Deputy First Minister there for a decade, did not live to see a reunited…

(As a mark of respect and solidarity with those killed and injured in London on 22 March, I have delayed this note by 24 hours. My sincere condolences to the UK's people for the horrific terrorist outrage at Westminster).Martin McGuinness, the former commander of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) who became a sentinel of peace in Northern Ireland with the Good Friday Agreement (brokered by Bill Clinton in 1998) and served as Deputy First Minister there for a decade, did not live to see a reunited…

Not Just Scotland: McGuinness, Brexit and the Dismantling of the United Kingdom

Amareos

Ryan Shea

Summary:Article 50 is due to be triggered by the UK government within the next two weeks, marking the formal start of Brexit negotiations with the EU. These negotiations will be complex and the time frame is very limited. As a further complication Scottish politicians are pushing to hold a second independence referendum towards the end of the negotiation period. Using crowd-sourced sentiments we assess the outlook for the UK equity market and the currency and conclude that while the risks for…

Summary:Article 50 is due to be triggered by the UK government within the next two weeks, marking the formal start of Brexit negotiations with the EU. These negotiations will be complex and the time frame is very limited. As a further complication Scottish politicians are pushing to hold a second independence referendum towards the end of the negotiation period. Using crowd-sourced sentiments we assess the outlook for the UK equity market and the currency and conclude that while the risks for…

The Market Sentimentalist: Ready, Steady, Brexit

The upcoming French election has, as we warned previously (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-market-sentimentalist-redshift-politics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:8677">The Market Sentimentalist: Redshift Politics</a>), rattled investors. Intra-regional government bond spreads have widened as investors view the perceived safety of German Bunds as a more attractive investment characteristic - and hence destination for their capital - during times of heightened political uncertainty.The catalyst for this price action has been the steady rise in support in the polls for Front National leader, Marine Le Pen, whose economic policy pledges include pulling out of the single currency and taking away the Banque de France’s operational independence and coercing it to print money in support of a more stimulative fiscal policy stance.Having been caught off-guard by the Brexit and Trump votes last year investors are wary, and understandably so. But what do the same crowd-sourced sentiment indicators that flagged both of these earlier "surprises" suggest? Are we in for yet another populist victory?

The upcoming French election has, as we warned previously (The Market Sentimentalist: Redshift Politics), rattled investors. Intra-regional government bond spreads have widened as investors view the perceived safety of German Bunds as a more attractive investment characteristic - and hence destination for their capital - during times of heightened political uncertainty.The catalyst for this price action has been the steady rise in support in the polls for Front National leader, Marine Le Pen, whose economic policy pledges include pulling out of the single currency and taking away the Banque de France’s operational independence and coercing it to print money in support of a more stimulative fiscal policy stance.Having been caught off-guard by the Brexit and Trump votes last year investors are wary, and understandably so. But what do the same crowd-sourced sentiment indicators that flagged both of these earlier "surprises" suggest? Are we in for yet another populist victory?

The Market Sentimentalist: French Election Special

China

Ucommune International Ltd operates as a real estate development company.

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Ucommune Group Holdings Ltd (UK US)

House Passes "Delisting Act" Giving SEC 90 Days to Write Its Rules (And Yes, More Bark Than Bite)

The U.S. House of Representatives passed Senate Bill 945, the "Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act." New details support the notion that S945...

Kyle Rudden

UK Election - Can Labour Win It?

Two weeks ago, we noted that Labour was making strong in-roads into the Tory lead and if they managed to continue to do that, the election result...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Not Just Scotland: McGuinness, Brexit and the Dismantling of the United Kingdom

(As a mark of respect and solidarity with those killed and injured in London on 22 March, I have delayed this note by 24 hours. My sincere...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The Market Sentimentalist: Ready, Steady, Brexit

Summary:Article 50 is due to be triggered by the UK government within the next two weeks, marking the formal start of Brexit negotiations with the...

Amareos

The Market Sentimentalist: French Election Special

The upcoming French election has, as we warned previously (The Market Sentimentalist: Redshift Politics), rattled investors. Intra-regional...

Amareos

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