Smartkarma AI, Smartkarma

αSK

Smartkarma AI

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
  <li>Unicharm is a dominant player in the Asian personal care market, particularly in diapers and feminine hygiene, with a growing pet care segment. Its strong brand recognition and extensive distribution network provide a solid foundation for growth.</li>
  <li>The company's growth strategy is centered on capitalizing on favorable demographic trends, such as aging populations in developed markets (driving adult incontinence product demand) and rising disposable incomes in emerging economies.</li>
  <li>Key challenges include intense competition from global and local players, volatility in raw material costs (pulp and polymers), and foreign exchange fluctuations, given that approximately two-thirds of its sales are generated overseas.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  Unicharm is a dominant player in the Asian personal care market, particularly in diapers and feminine hygiene, with a growing pet care segment. Its strong brand recognition and extensive distribution network provide a solid foundation for growth.
  The company's growth strategy is centered on capitalizing on favorable demographic trends, such as aging populations in developed markets (driving adult incontinence product demand) and rising disposable incomes in emerging economies.
  Key challenges include intense competition from global and local players, volatility in raw material costs (pulp and polymers), and foreign exchange fluctuations, given that approximately two-thirds of its sales are generated overseas.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Unicharm Corp (8113 JP) - Oct 2025

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-10/asia-pulp-paper-is-said-to-bid-for-stake-in-tissue-maker-vinda#xj4y7vzkg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> Asia Pulp &amp; Paper is the latest party to have expressed interest in acquiring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/essity-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28203:1" rel="noopener">Essity (ESSITYB SS)</a>’s controlling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinda-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:475:1" rel="noopener">Vinda International (3331 HK)</a> stake at more than HK$20 per share.</li>
<li>Vinda has three substantial shareholders. We think the most likely structure is a bidder acquiring Essity’s stake, which would trigger a mandatory general offer.</li>
<li>Vinda's recent update points to improving growth and margins. Peers and historical multiples imply a fair price range of HK$21-26 per share, a 7-32% premium to the last close.</li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reported Asia Pulp &amp; Paper is the latest party to have expressed interest in acquiring Essity (ESSITYB SS)’s controlling Vinda International (3331 HK) stake at more than HK$20 per share.
Vinda has three substantial shareholders. We think the most likely structure is a bidder acquiring Essity’s stake, which would trigger a mandatory general offer.
Vinda's recent update points to improving growth and margins. Peers and historical multiples imply a fair price range of HK$21-26 per share, a 7-32% premium to the last close.


Vinda International (3331 HK): Essity’s Stake Attracts More Potential Bidders

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a> is potentially a leading candidate for inclusion in the Nikkei 225 in September. </li>
<li>There are other technical reasons to think it is not. </li>
<li>This insight looks at the issue of why it might be a leading candidate and why it might not be. </li>
</ul>



Mercari Inc (4385 JP) is potentially a leading candidate for inclusion in the Nikkei 225 in September. 
There are other technical reasons to think it is not. 
This insight looks at the issue of why it might be a leading candidate and why it might not be. 


Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Review - The Mercari Conundrum

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

<ul>
<li>Shiseido’s share price dropped 70% over the past six years, compared to a 110% gain by Topix, but the stock just crossed its 200-day MAV. Time for another look?  </li>
<li>In our view, the stock lacks most of the required criteria for a successful turnaround, and reeks of all the important criteria for failure. </li>
<li>Shiseido’s stock already prices in a 50% earnings recovery. To be compelling, the forecast needs to be 4 standard deviations above the mean, or the price needs to decline 30%.  </li>
</ul>


Shiseido’s share price dropped 70% over the past six years, compared to a 110% gain by Topix, but the stock just crossed its 200-day MAV. Time for another look?  
In our view, the stock lacks most of the required criteria for a successful turnaround, and reeks of all the important criteria for failure. 
Shiseido’s stock already prices in a 50% earnings recovery. To be compelling, the forecast needs to be 4 standard deviations above the mean, or the price needs to decline 30%.  


Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The turnaround basket outperformed the Topix benchmark by 40% in the past 12 months, with only three stocks underperforming.</li>
<li>Fundamental research added value to the simple one-factor model, as seen with top performers like Shift and Rohm.</li>
<li>The unusual market conditions last year favored turnarounds, but future performance is expected to return to normal levels.</li>
</ul>


The turnaround basket outperformed the Topix benchmark by 40% in the past 12 months, with only three stocks underperforming.
Fundamental research added value to the simple one-factor model, as seen with top performers like Shift and Rohm.
The unusual market conditions last year favored turnarounds, but future performance is expected to return to normal levels.


Japanese Turnarounds Chock up a Massive Year, but What's Next?

Japan

UNICHARM CORPORATION is a manufacturer of sanitary napkins and baby products. Products include infant & adult diapers, household cleaning wipes, and feminine hygienic products.  The Company also produces pet food and pet toiletries as well as operates educational and finance businesses.

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Unicharm Corp (8113 JP)

Primer: Unicharm Corp (8113 JP) - Oct 2025

Unicharm is a dominant player in the Asian personal care market, particularly in diapers and feminine hygiene, with a growing pet care segment....

αSK

Vinda International (3331 HK): Essity’s Stake Attracts More Potential Bidders

Vinda’s improving performance has supported the increasing list of potential bidders. The most likely bid structure is the acquisition of Essity’s...

Arun George

Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Review - The Mercari Conundrum

Mercari is either a leading candidate for Nikkei 225 inclusion in September 2023. Or it is not. It depends on how you mash the data, interpret the...

Travis Lundy

Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

Shiseido's stock may have crossed its 200-day MAV, but it lacks the criteria for a successful turnaround and may still be overpriced.

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnarounds Chock up a Massive Year, but What's Next?

Turnaround basket outperformed Topix benchmark by 40% in past year, and fundamental research pushed this higher with picks like Shift and Rohm....

Michael Allen

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Primer: Unicharm Corp (8113 JP) - Oct 2025

Unicharm is a dominant player in the Asian personal care market, particularly in diapers and feminine hygiene, with a growing pet care segment....

αSK

Vinda International (3331 HK): Essity’s Stake Attracts More Potential Bidders

Vinda’s improving performance has supported the increasing list of potential bidders. The most likely bid structure is the acquisition of Essity’s...

Arun George

Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Review - The Mercari Conundrum

Mercari is either a leading candidate for Nikkei 225 inclusion in September 2023. Or it is not. It depends on how you mash the data, interpret the...

Travis Lundy

Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

​Shiseido's stock may have crossed its 200-day MAV, but it lacks the criteria for a successful turnaround and may still be overpriced.

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnarounds Chock up a Massive Year, but What's Next?

​Turnaround basket outperformed Topix benchmark by 40% in past year, and fundamental research pushed this higher with picks like Shift and Rohm....

Michael Allen

Shiseido's stock may have crossed its 200-day MAV, but it lacks the criteria for a successful turnaround and may still be overpriced.

Turnaround basket outperformed Topix benchmark by 40% in past year, and fundamental research pushed this higher with picks like Shift and Rohm....