APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Executive Summary</h2><ol>
<li>OPEC production cut plan supports our macro thesis of an oil-led, inflation expectations uplift.</li>
<li>Our original WTI peak base effect was +20 percent YOY. Now based on end-September oil it is +40 percent.</li>
<li>Our bullish case for EM is in large part based on improved pricing power in energy and material sectors.</li>
<li>OPEC action assists supply rebalance and steepens the path for inflation expectations and Fed action.</li>
<li>Strong oil supports our yield-based bullish view on banks and insurers.</li>
</ol><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/013/995/original/animal_spirits3.png?1475197603" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="13995"></figure><h2>Oil</h2>…

Executive Summary
OPEC production cut plan supports our macro thesis of an oil-led, inflation expectations uplift.
Our original WTI peak base effect was +20 percent YOY. Now based on end-September oil it is +40 percent.
Our bullish case for EM is in large part based on improved pricing power in energy and material sectors.
OPEC action assists supply rebalance and steepens the path for inflation expectations and Fed action.
Strong oil supports our yield-based bullish view on banks and insurers.
Oil…

ANIMAL SPIRITS Update: OPEC Fuels Base Effect - Oil, Inflation & The Fed, Yields, Financials and EM

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Trends in Technology, Demographics, and Borrowing Will Set the Course of Rates<ul><li class="p1">We hypothesise that three main factors will determine the future course of interest rates.</li><li class="p1">First, the "new economy" characterised by globalisation and technological advancement will have long-lasting effects on the balance of savings and investment and will continue to exert an effect on the demand for capital and labor for years to come.</li><li class="p1">Second, demographic changes—primarily an aging and longer-lived global population—will reduce the savings glut produced by rapid growth of the working-age population in recent decades.</li><li class="p1">Finally, the state of the credit cycle will weigh on consumer and corporate behaviour, as well.</li></ul>Analysts: Jim Sinegal &amp; Eric Compton

Trends in Technology, Demographics, and Borrowing Will Set the Course of RatesWe hypothesise that three main factors will determine the future course of interest rates.First, the "new economy" characterised by globalisation and technological advancement will have long-lasting effects on the balance of savings and investment and will continue to exert an effect on the demand for capital and labor for years to come.Second, demographic changes—primarily an aging and longer-lived global population—will reduce the savings glut produced by rapid growth of the working-age population in recent decades.Finally, the state of the credit cycle will weigh on consumer and corporate behaviour, as well.Analysts: Jim Sinegal &amp; Eric Compton

Financial Services Observer: Solving the Interest Rate Equation

Chairman, sgtradex

Tan Chin-Hwee

Chairman

Traditional finance companies' competitive advantage operates like moats protecting mediaeval castles. Fintech companies must cross the moats of trust and regulation to break into the mainstream.It started with a question which seemed simple enough when I first started investing in technology despite my training in years as a value investor: How do you invest in a fintech (financial technology) start-up with the potential to revolutionise finance, but which has not gained wide traction or turned…

Traditional finance companies' competitive advantage operates like moats protecting mediaeval castles. Fintech companies must cross the moats of trust and regulation to break into the mainstream.It started with a question which seemed simple enough when I first started investing in technology despite my training in years as a value investor: How do you invest in a fintech (financial technology) start-up with the potential to revolutionise finance, but which has not gained wide traction or turned…

The Moats that Fintech Companies Must Cross

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

Weakness in industrial production growth in May was seen across most major sectors and economies, which clearly shows that the Euro Zone industry is struggling to gain momentum which poses a risk to our GDP outlook of 1.3% for 2016 (lowered from 1.6% after the Brexit vote).Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone slowed to 0.6% y-o-y in May 2016 after having recorded a growth of 2.1% y-o-y in April 2016 on a seasonally and working day adjusted (swda) basis. On a 3 month moving average (3mma)…

Weakness in industrial production growth in May was seen across most major sectors and economies, which clearly shows that the Euro Zone industry is struggling to gain momentum which poses a risk to our GDP outlook of 1.3% for 2016 (lowered from 1.6% after the Brexit vote).Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone slowed to 0.6% y-o-y in May 2016 after having recorded a growth of 2.1% y-o-y in April 2016 on a seasonally and working day adjusted (swda) basis. On a 3 month moving average (3mma)…

EUROZONE: Industrial Production GROWTh Slows ACROSS SECTORS AND COUNTRIES

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased debt in many countries, including a good number in the European Union, whose debt levels are masked by accounting procedures.

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased debt in many countries, including a good number in the European Union, whose debt levels are masked by accounting procedures.

The Potential for National Financial Default

Italy

UniCredit is a pan-European commercial bank offering diverse financial services, including retail and private banking, corporate and investment banking, and wealth management. It provides solutions such as current accounts, loans, credit cards, advisory, and asset management. The company is headquartered in Milan, Italy, and traces its corporate identity back to its founding in 1870 as Banca di Genova, with the current entity formed in 1998 through a merger.

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UniCredit (UCG IM)

ANIMAL SPIRITS Update: OPEC Fuels Base Effect - Oil, Inflation & The Fed, Yields, Financials and EM

Executive Summary OPEC production cut plan supports our macro thesis of an oil-led, inflation expectations uplift. Our original WTI peak base...

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

Financial Services Observer: Solving the Interest Rate Equation

Trends in Technology, Demographics, and Borrowing Will Set the Course of Rates We hypothesise that three main factors will determine the future...

Morningstar, Inc.

The Moats that Fintech Companies Must Cross

Traditional finance companies' competitive advantage operates like moats protecting mediaeval castles. Fintech companies must cross the moats of...

Tan Chin-Hwee

EUROZONE: Industrial Production GROWTh Slows ACROSS SECTORS AND COUNTRIES

Weakness in industrial production growth in May was seen across most major sectors and economies, which clearly shows that the Euro Zone industry...

Rajan Govil

The Potential for National Financial Default

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased...

Bixmoor

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