European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Commerzbank’s incoming CEO Bettina Orlopp announced talks with UniCredit on September 27 regarding a potential merger. Despite opposition from management and Chancellor Scholz, some investors support the discussions.</li>
<li>Since UniCredit's entry into Commerzbank on September 10, Commerzbank's stock has surged 30%, outperforming UniCredit's 9.2% rise and the European banking sector's 6.3% gain.</li>
<li>Buying Commerzbank is strategically and financially logical. In conclusion, I maintain my recommendation to buy Commerzbank speculatively.</li>
</ul>


Commerzbank’s incoming CEO Bettina Orlopp announced talks with UniCredit on September 27 regarding a potential merger. Despite opposition from management and Chancellor Scholz, some investors support the discussions.
Since UniCredit's entry into Commerzbank on September 10, Commerzbank's stock has surged 30%, outperforming UniCredit's 9.2% rise and the European banking sector's 6.3% gain.
Buying Commerzbank is strategically and financially logical. In conclusion, I maintain my recommendation to buy Commerzbank speculatively.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)</a> has raised its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commerzbank-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21596:1" rel="noopener">Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)</a> stake to 21%; Chancellor Scholz called it "hostile takeover". UniCredit also filed to increase its stake up to 29.9%.</li>
<li>Commerzbank’s valuation multiples remain attractive, as despite a 21.3% rise in its stock, it still trades at a price-to-book ratio (P/B) of just 0.57x, compared to UniCredit’s 0.98x.</li>
<li>The conditions remain favorable for a potential premium acquisition by UniCredit, as acquiring Commerzbank makes both strategic and financial sense. Thus I recommend to buy Commerzbank speculatively.</li>
</ul>



UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) has raised its Commerzbank AG (CBK GR) stake to 21%; Chancellor Scholz called it "hostile takeover". UniCredit also filed to increase its stake up to 29.9%.
Commerzbank’s valuation multiples remain attractive, as despite a 21.3% rise in its stock, it still trades at a price-to-book ratio (P/B) of just 0.57x, compared to UniCredit’s 0.98x.
The conditions remain favorable for a potential premium acquisition by UniCredit, as acquiring Commerzbank makes both strategic and financial sense. Thus I recommend to buy Commerzbank speculatively.


US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aib-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43916:1" rel="noopener">AIB Group (AIBG IE)</a> is expected to experience an increase in free float from 75% to 80% in November 2024 due to the Irish Government reducing its stake this month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commerzbank-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21596:1" rel="noopener">Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)</a> is forecasted to have a ~2% points free float <em>decrease</em> in Global and European Indices as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit</a> bought more than what the German Government sold.</li>
<li>The UK Government continues slashing its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/natwest-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21008:1" rel="noopener">NatWest Group (NWG LN)</a> with potential further free float increases coming in November and December 2024.</li>
</ul>



AIB Group (AIBG IE) is expected to experience an increase in free float from 75% to 80% in November 2024 due to the Irish Government reducing its stake this month.

Commerzbank AG (CBK GR) is forecasted to have a ~2% points free float decrease in Global and European Indices as UniCredit bought more than what the German Government sold.
The UK Government continues slashing its stake in NatWest Group (NWG LN) with potential further free float increases coming in November and December 2024.


European Governments' Bank Sell-Off: Boosting Confidence and Occasionally Free Float

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.</li>
<li>In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.</li>
<li>This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.
In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.
This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates


Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>EU adds Temu to highest digital scrutiny tier due to risks like counterfeit goods and IP violations</li>
<li>Tesla recalls multiple models due to seat belt warning system flaw; plans software update in June</li>
<li>Russian court permits UniCredit to use Russian bonds as collateral, softening prior asset seizure terms</li>
</ul>


EU adds Temu to highest digital scrutiny tier due to risks like counterfeit goods and IP violations
Tesla recalls multiple models due to seat belt warning system flaw; plans software update in June
Russian court permits UniCredit to use Russian bonds as collateral, softening prior asset seizure terms


#9Business Buzz: Temu Under EU's Scrutiny, Tesla Recalls Vehicles, Court Eases UniCredit Restriction

Italy

UniCredit S.p.A. attracts deposits and offers commercial banking services. The Bank offers consumer credit, mortgages, life insurance, business loan, investment banking, asset management, and other services. UniCredit operates worldwide.

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UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)

Commerzbank Enters Talks with Unicredit

Commerzbank’s incoming CEO announced talks with UniCredit on September 27. Despite opposition from management and Chancellor Scholz, some investors...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Unicredit Is Moving Fast

UniCredit raises stake in Commerzbank to 21%. Commerzbank remains undervalued with attractive multiples, making it a potential target for...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

European Governments' Bank Sell-Off: Boosting Confidence and Occasionally Free Float

European governments are reducing stakes in AIB Group, Commerzbank AG, and NatWest, and triggering changes in free float percentages for European...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI and $EEM hold above $110 and $41-42; Buys in global Financials, Industrials, and Consumer...

Vermilion Research

#9Business Buzz: Temu Under EU's Scrutiny, Tesla Recalls Vehicles, Court Eases UniCredit Restriction

EU increases scrutiny on Temu for digital risks, Tesla recalls models for seat belt flaw, Russian court allows UniCredit to use bonds as collateral.

Nimish Maheshwari

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Commerzbank Enters Talks with Unicredit

Commerzbank’s incoming CEO announced talks with UniCredit on September 27. Despite opposition from management and Chancellor Scholz, some investors...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Unicredit Is Moving Fast

​UniCredit raises stake in Commerzbank to 21%. Commerzbank remains undervalued with attractive multiples, making it a potential target for...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

European Governments' Bank Sell-Off: Boosting Confidence and Occasionally Free Float

​European governments are reducing stakes in AIB Group, Commerzbank AG, and NatWest, and triggering changes in free float percentages for European...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI and $EEM hold above $110 and $41-42; Buys in global Financials, Industrials, and Consumer...

Vermilion Research

#9Business Buzz: Temu Under EU's Scrutiny, Tesla Recalls Vehicles, Court Eases UniCredit Restriction

​EU increases scrutiny on Temu for digital risks, Tesla recalls models for seat belt flaw, Russian court allows UniCredit to use bonds as collateral.

Nimish Maheshwari

UniCredit raises stake in Commerzbank to 21%. Commerzbank remains undervalued with attractive multiples, making it a potential target for...

European governments are reducing stakes in AIB Group, Commerzbank AG, and NatWest, and triggering changes in free float percentages for European...

EU increases scrutiny on Temu for digital risks, Tesla recalls models for seat belt flaw, Russian court allows UniCredit to use bonds as collateral.