Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nusantara-sejahtera-raya" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39908:1" rel="noopener">Cinema XXI (CINEMA IJ)</a> aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO.</li>
<li>Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&amp;B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Cinema XXI (CINEMA IJ) aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO.
Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&amp;B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO - The Negatives - Private Placement, Not a Primary Raising

Cisarua Mountain Dairy / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMD), a producer of dairy and consumer foods, aims to raise up to US$263m in its Indonesian IPO.</li>
<li>It is a market leader in the overall yogurt sub-category as well as in the spoonable and drinking yogurt segments with a market share of 53.2%, 71.9% and 50.3%, respectively. </li>
<li>In our previous notes, links <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cisarua-mountain-dairy-cimory-ipo-the-negatives-losing-market-share-margin-sustainability" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cisarua-mountain-dairy-cimory-ipo-the-negatives-losing-market-share-margin-sustainability" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>,  we spoke about the various aspects of the deal. In we will do a peer comparison and talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>


PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMD), a producer of dairy and consumer foods, aims to raise up to US$263m in its Indonesian IPO.
It is a market leader in the overall yogurt sub-category as well as in the spoonable and drinking yogurt segments with a market share of 53.2%, 71.9% and 50.3%, respectively. 
In our previous notes, links here and here,  we spoke about the various aspects of the deal. In we will do a peer comparison and talk about valuations.


Cisarua Mountain Dairy  (Cimory) IPO - Giving It the Benefit of Margin Doubts

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) has announced a change in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jakarta-stock-exchange-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22914:1" rel="noopener">Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX)</a> calculation methodology to make it a free float market cap weighted index from a full market cap weighted index. Additionally, there will be a 9% capping on the weight of a single stock in the index.The change will take place in a phased manner in 3 stages: at the beginning of October 2020, January 2021 and April 2021.The biggest beneficiaries of the change are expected to be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charoen-pokphand-indonesi-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10889:1" rel="noopener">Charoen Pokphand Indonesi (CPIN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semen-indonesia-persero-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11161:1" rel="noopener">Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sarana-menara-nusantara-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6848:1" rel="noopener">Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-sukses-makmur-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1053:1" rel="noopener">Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a>.The biggest falls in index weight are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hm-sampoerna-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:617:1" rel="noopener">HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:231:1" rel="noopener">Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-permata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:728:1" rel="noopener">Bank Permata (BNLI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-brisyariah-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26981:1" rel="noopener">Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayan-resources-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8039:1" rel="noopener">Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ)</a>.Among the upweights, there could be over 2 days of ADV to trade on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charoen-pokphand-indonesi-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10889:1" rel="noopener">Charoen Pokphand Indonesi (CPIN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semen-indonesia-persero-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11161:1" rel="noopener">Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ)</a> while there could be over 1 day of ADV to trade on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-sukses-makmur-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1053:1" rel="noopener">Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sarana-menara-nusantara-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6848:1" rel="noopener">Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hm-sampoerna-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:617:1" rel="noopener">HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:231:1" rel="noopener">Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ)</a> would be the most impacted stocks with potential outflows.

The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) has announced a change in the Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX) calculation methodology to make it a free float market cap weighted index from a full market cap weighted index. Additionally, there will be a 9% capping on the weight of a single stock in the index.The change will take place in a phased manner in 3 stages: at the beginning of October 2020, January 2021 and April 2021.The biggest beneficiaries of the change are expected to be Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ), Astra International (ASII IJ), Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ), Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ), Charoen Pokphand Indonesi (CPIN IJ), Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ), Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ), Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ) and Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ).The biggest falls in index weight are expected on Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ), Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ), Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ), Bank Permata (BNLI IJ), Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ), Emtek (EMTK IJ), Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ) and Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ).Among the upweights, there could be over 2 days of ADV to trade on Charoen Pokphand Indonesi (CPIN IJ) and Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ) while there could be over 1 day of ADV to trade on Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ), Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ), Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ) and Astra International (ASII IJ).HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ), Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ) and Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ) would be the most impacted stocks with potential outflows.

Jakarta Composite Index: Impact of Change to Capped Free Float Weighting

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ)</a> is back to the boil in terms of sales growth for both its dairy and carton tea businesses, which both benefit from a nominalisation of mobility. </li>
<li>The company's margins have improved in the dairy business as cost pressure has abated with falling powdered milk prices. Competition has picked up but the overall market is growing sufficiently. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk</a> will open a new distribution centre in 1Q2024, which should help to drive growth plus it looks to launch new product categories in 2024. Valuations are attractive.</li>
</ul>



Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) is back to the boil in terms of sales growth for both its dairy and carton tea businesses, which both benefit from a nominalisation of mobility. 
The company's margins have improved in the dairy business as cost pressure has abated with falling powdered milk prices. Competition has picked up but the overall market is growing sufficiently. 

Ultrajaya Milk will open a new distribution centre in 1Q2024, which should help to drive growth plus it looks to launch new product categories in 2024. Valuations are attractive.


Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) - The Milkmaid Cometh

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>With the FMCG market having sound growth prospects, we estimate FY24F growth of 7% yoy.</li><li>Some categories still showed promising growth in 3Q23, despite the market’s overall volume contraction.</li><li>We maintain our sector OW rating and expect ICBP (TP Rp13,000) and MYOR (TP Rp3,500) to fare better under a soft recovery scenario.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

With the FMCG market having sound growth prospects, we estimate FY24F growth of 7% yoy.Some categories still showed promising growth in 3Q23, despite the market’s overall volume contraction.We maintain our sector OW rating and expect ICBP (TP Rp13,000) and MYOR (TP Rp3,500) to fare better under a soft recovery scenario.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer: Room for Growth Is Still in Store (OVERWEIGHT)

Indonesia

PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk manufactures soaps, detergents, margarine, oil and dairy based foods, tea based beverages, ice cream, and cosmetics.

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Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ)

Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO - The Negatives - Private Placement, Not a Primary Raising

Cinema XXI (CINEMA IJ) aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (Cimory) IPO - Giving It the Benefit of Margin Doubts

PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMD), a producer of dairy and consumer foods, aims to raise up to US$263m in its Indonesian IPO.

Sumeet Singh

Jakarta Composite Index: Impact of Change to Capped Free Float Weighting

The JCI will change from a full market cap weighted index to a capped free float mkt cap weighted index. Beneficiaries are TLKM, BBRI, ASII, BMRI &...

Brian Freitas

Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) - The Milkmaid Cometh

Ultrajaya Milk will open a new distribution centre in 1Q2024, which should help to drive growth plus it looks to launch new product categories in...

Angus Mackintosh

Consumer: Room for Growth Is Still in Store (OVERWEIGHT)

We maintain our sector OW rating and expect ICBP (TP Rp13,000) and MYOR (TP Rp3,500) to fare better under a soft recovery scenario.

BRI Danareksa Research

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