European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Both Unilever and McCormick &amp; Company have de-rated post-announcement, with price action suggesting the market is focused on execution risk rather than headline transaction valuation.</li>
<li>The deal implies ~13.8x EBITDA and $15.7bn cash proceeds, but consideration is split between realised value and retained exposure, leaving part of the economics dependent on future execution.</li>
<li>Initial de-risking appears largely complete, but the absence of re-risking suggests a gap between current pricing and underlying value that may take time to close.</li>
</ul>


Both Unilever and McCormick &amp; Company have de-rated post-announcement, with price action suggesting the market is focused on execution risk rather than headline transaction valuation.
The deal implies ~13.8x EBITDA and $15.7bn cash proceeds, but consideration is split between realised value and retained exposure, leaving part of the economics dependent on future execution.
Initial de-risking appears largely complete, but the absence of re-risking suggests a gap between current pricing and underlying value that may take time to close.


Unilever: Both Sides De-Rating — The Market Is Pricing Execution, Not Value

<ul>
<li>Unilever’s Foods combination with McCormick crystallises value at ~13.8x EBITDA with $15.7bn cash, but shareholders retain majority exposure, making this a restructuring of value rather than a full monetisation event.</li>
<li>The transaction improves growth mix and sharpens HPC focus, but removes a high-margin division and introduces €400–500m stranded costs, limiting immediate rerating despite attractive headline valuation and synergy potential.</li>
<li>We see a credible event-driven long with clear catalysts and improved valuation visibility, but partial value realisation, integration risk and delayed closing justify a measured stance with 4,950p target price.</li>
</ul>


Unilever’s Foods combination with McCormick crystallises value at ~13.8x EBITDA with $15.7bn cash, but shareholders retain majority exposure, making this a restructuring of value rather than a full monetisation event.
The transaction improves growth mix and sharpens HPC focus, but removes a high-margin division and introduces €400–500m stranded costs, limiting immediate rerating despite attractive headline valuation and synergy potential.
We see a credible event-driven long with clear catalysts and improved valuation visibility, but partial value realisation, integration risk and delayed closing justify a measured stance with 4,950p target price.


Unilever: Cooking Up Value — But Not Serving It All Yet

US-EU Index & Corporate Actions Analyst, ORTEX

Harry Kalfas

US-EU Index & Corporate Actions Analyst

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22197:1" rel="noopener">Unilever PLC (ULVR LN)</a> is spinning off its Ice Cream business into a standalone publicly-listed company, The Magnum Ice Cream Company ("TMICC").</li>
<li>TMICC is expected to list in early December 2025, trading under the ticker "MICC" on Euronext Amsterdam, LSE and NYSE.</li>
<li>Significant index implications across EU and Global indices, on an intra-quarter basis.</li>
</ul>



Unilever PLC (ULVR LN) is spinning off its Ice Cream business into a standalone publicly-listed company, The Magnum Ice Cream Company ("TMICC").
TMICC is expected to list in early December 2025, trading under the ticker "MICC" on Euronext Amsterdam, LSE and NYSE.
Significant index implications across EU and Global indices, on an intra-quarter basis.


Unilever Spins Off Magnum Ice Cream: Index Changes Ahead

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The main thesis for investing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanadevia-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14969:1" rel="noopener">Kanadevia (7004 JP)</a>has a defensible moat in the green ships repair capabilities and still overlooked by investors. </li>
<li>The ships' retrofit investment outweighs the EU ETS penalty for being dirty ships. </li>
<li>18x PER and 0.9x book value, with around 7x EV/EBITDA, it is trading at a very undemanding valuation with the above mentioned catalyst. </li>
</ul>


The main thesis for investing in Kanadevia (7004 JP)has a defensible moat in the green ships repair capabilities and still overlooked by investors. 
The ships' retrofit investment outweighs the EU ETS penalty for being dirty ships. 
18x PER and 0.9x book value, with around 7x EV/EBITDA, it is trading at a very undemanding valuation with the above mentioned catalyst. 


Kanadevia (7004): Value at High Margin Decarbon Tech

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Singapore Telecommunications / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)</li>
<li>We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."</li>
<li>Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.</li>
</ul>


The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."
Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.


Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

United Kingdom

Unilever is a British multinational consumer goods company that manufactures and sells a wide range of products including foods, beverages, cleaning agents, and personal care items. It operates through distinct business groups focusing on Beauty & Wellbeing, Personal Care, Home Care, and Nutrition. The company is headquartered in London, England, and was founded in 1929.

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Unilever (ULVR LN)

Unilever: Both Sides De-Rating — The Market Is Pricing Execution, Not Value

Deal is priced as execution risk, but value is already partly crystallised. Both Unilever and McCormick de-rated, suggesting the market may be over...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Unilever: Cooking Up Value — But Not Serving It All Yet

Unilever’s Foods deal with McCormick crystallises value at an attractive multiple, but structure matters: partial monetisation, retained exposure...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Unilever Spins Off Magnum Ice Cream: Index Changes Ahead

Unilever PLC (ULVR) is spinning off its Ice Cream business, "TMICC", (MICC), expected to list in December 2025 with notable intra-quarter EU and...

Harry Kalfas

Kanadevia (7004): Value at High Margin Decarbon Tech

Kanadevia (7004) has a defensible moat in green ships retrofit that will attract a lot of business in the coming years thanks to strict EU...

Henry Soediarko

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

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