Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>New Pricing Forecasts:</strong></p><p>We included this month our new commodity price forecast table, which ranks key commodities based on their price potential to our 2020 forecasts.  In summary, we are relatively more positive on the commodities which have lagged during the past year including Agriculture &amp; Precious Metals, but relatively more cautious on the Energy and Metals &amp; Minerals. Our current stock recommendations include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/select-harvests-ltd-pricing-growth-adding-to-our-list-of-five-year-doubles" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18339">Select Harvests Ltd: Pricing + Growth; Adding to Our List of Five Year Doubles</a> an…</p>

New Pricing Forecasts:We included this month our new commodity price forecast table, which ranks key commodities based on their price potential to our 2020 forecasts.  In summary, we are relatively more positive on the commodities which have lagged during the past year including Agriculture &amp; Precious Metals, but relatively more cautious on the Energy and Metals &amp; Minerals. Our current stock recommendations include Select Harvests Ltd: Pricing + Growth; Adding to Our List of Five Year Doubles an…

Commodity Prices Bounce in April Led Again by Energy & Metals

Emerging Market Economist, Emerginomics

Tatiana Orlova

Emerging Market Economist

Emerginomics

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>It seems that the US has not fully anticipated the fallout from its sanctions against Rusal, and is looking for a graceful exit. The recent panic in the world's metal markets is a powerful signal to both US and Russia that the "sanctions race" needs to stop. There is hardly any room left for imposing further sanctions against Russian companies and oligarchs with no adverse consequences for the West. Similarly, it is hard for Russia to come up with any reciprocal measures which wouldn't hurt its</strong>…</p></div>

It seems that the US has not fully anticipated the fallout from its sanctions against Rusal, and is looking for a graceful exit. The recent panic in the world's metal markets is a powerful signal to both US and Russia that the "sanctions race" needs to stop. There is hardly any room left for imposing further sanctions against Russian companies and oligarchs with no adverse consequences for the West. Similarly, it is hard for Russia to come up with any reciprocal measures which wouldn't hurt its…

Metals Remain on Rollercoaster as US Softens Stance on Rusal Sanctions

<div class="content-highlight"><h2>The imposition of a new round of US sanctions on Russian businesses and individuals has nearly coincided with the reports of a new chemical attack in Syria. To everyone's relief, effective communication has prevented a direct clash between the West and Russia during the retaliatory strikes on the Syrian regime. However, the global aluminium market remains in a grip of panic as US sanctions affect Rusal. Has the US inadvertently handed a slice of the world's aluminium market to Chinese producers?</h2></div><p>…</p>

The imposition of a new round of US sanctions on Russian businesses and individuals has nearly coincided with the reports of a new chemical attack in Syria. To everyone's relief, effective communication has prevented a direct clash between the West and Russia during the retaliatory strikes on the Syrian regime. However, the global aluminium market remains in a grip of panic as US sanctions affect Rusal. Has the US inadvertently handed a slice of the world's aluminium market to Chinese producers?…

New Russia Sanctions Rock Global Commodity Markets. Thankfully Syria-Related Risks Have Subsided.

Equity Bottom-Up

Aluminum Corporation Of China / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>Buy </strong><strong>Chalco; Price Target HK$6/sh</strong></p><p>We recommend buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6884" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6884:1">Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited (2600 HK)</a> (Chalco) for a trade to ~HK$6, given the current strength in Aluminium pricing.  Chalco shares have shown a strong correlation to spot Aluminum prices, with an R-squared of 50% since 2014.  Currently, our model suggests Chalco shares should be trading above HK$6/sh given spot aluminum prices at US$2,405/t, however, its shares which trade at HK$4.74 imply an aluminum price of just US$2,155/t.   </p><p>…</p>

Buy Chalco; Price Target HK$6/shWe recommend buying Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited (2600 HK) (Chalco) for a trade to ~HK$6, given the current strength in Aluminium pricing.  Chalco shares have shown a strong correlation to spot Aluminum prices, with an R-squared of 50% since 2014.  Currently, our model suggests Chalco shares should be trading above HK$6/sh given spot aluminum prices at US$2,405/t, however, its shares which trade at HK$4.74 imply an aluminum price of just US$2,155/t.   …

Buy Chalco for a Trade on Stronger Aluminum Prices

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>As early as January of last year, I suggested that notwithstanding his stated admiration for Russia’s leadership, President Trump would eventually be forced to take a harder line than his predecessor against Russia, writing that ‘ the incoming US administration is more likely to impose stricter sanctions against Russia than to repeal them’ - this at a time when commentators on Russia were universally predicting that a more emollient approach from the new president compared with his predecessor…</p>

As early as January of last year, I suggested that notwithstanding his stated admiration for Russia’s leadership, President Trump would eventually be forced to take a harder line than his predecessor against Russia, writing that ‘ the incoming US administration is more likely to impose stricter sanctions against Russia than to repeal them’ - this at a time when commentators on Russia were universally predicting that a more emollient approach from the new president compared with his predecessor…

Russia: The Valuation/Governance Trade-Off Has Become Even More Binary

Russia

United Co RUSAL PLC is a primary aluminium producer. The Company's main products are primary aluminium (including alloys and value-added products, such as aluminium sheet ingots and aluminium billet), aluminium foil and packaging products.

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United Co Rusal (486 HK)

Commodity Prices Bounce in April Led Again by Energy & Metals

New Pricing Forecasts:We included this month our new commodity price forecast table, which ranks key commodities based on their price potential to...

Charles Spencer

Metals Remain on Rollercoaster as US Softens Stance on Rusal Sanctions

It seems that the US has not fully anticipated the fallout from its sanctions against Rusal, and is looking for a graceful exit. The recent panic...

Tatiana Orlova

Buy Chalco for a Trade on Stronger Aluminum Prices

Buy Chalco; Price Target HK$6/shWe recommend buying Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited (2600 HK) (Chalco) for a trade to ~HK$6, given the...

Charles Spencer

Russia: The Valuation/Governance Trade-Off Has Become Even More Binary

As early as January of last year, I suggested that notwithstanding his stated admiration for Russia’s leadership, President Trump would eventually...

John-Paul Smith

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Commodity Prices Bounce in April Led Again by Energy & Metals

New Pricing Forecasts:We included this month our new commodity price forecast table, which ranks key commodities based on their price potential to...

Charles Spencer

Metals Remain on Rollercoaster as US Softens Stance on Rusal Sanctions

It seems that the US has not fully anticipated the fallout from its sanctions against Rusal, and is looking for a graceful exit. The recent panic...

Tatiana Orlova

New Russia Sanctions Rock Global Commodity Markets. Thankfully Syria-Related Risks Have Subsided.

The imposition of a new round of US sanctions on Russian businesses and individuals has nearly coincided with the reports of a new chemical attack...

Tatiana Orlova

Buy Chalco for a Trade on Stronger Aluminum Prices

Buy Chalco; Price Target HK$6/shWe recommend buying Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited (2600 HK) (Chalco) for a trade to ~HK$6, given the...

Charles Spencer

Russia: The Valuation/Governance Trade-Off Has Become Even More Binary

As early as January of last year, I suggested that notwithstanding his stated admiration for Russia’s leadership, President Trump would eventually...

John-Paul Smith