European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Telefónica evaluating 1&amp;1 takeover; tight float (UI 80.8%, Rentrop 4.5%). Our synergy DCF supports €26–€30/sh takeout (sweet spot €28–€29). Downside €19–€20; October 21, €21.80.</li>
<li>Probability-Weighted fair value: €23.83/sh (45% at €28.5, 55% at €20.0). Phase-II timeline 9–12 months; PW IRR +12.6% (9m) to +9.3% (12m), ex-fees/hedging.</li>
<li>Hedge long 1U1 with EU telco basket or DAX; O2 Deutschland short impractical (TEF owns ~96.85%). Key risks: heavy remedies, execution slippage, deal pivot to cooperation-only.</li>
</ul>


Telefónica evaluating 1&amp;1 takeover; tight float (UI 80.8%, Rentrop 4.5%). Our synergy DCF supports €26–€30/sh takeout (sweet spot €28–€29). Downside €19–€20; October 21, €21.80.
Probability-Weighted fair value: €23.83/sh (45% at €28.5, 55% at €20.0). Phase-II timeline 9–12 months; PW IRR +12.6% (9m) to +9.3% (12m), ex-fees/hedging.
Hedge long 1U1 with EU telco basket or DAX; O2 Deutschland short impractical (TEF owns ~96.85%). Key risks: heavy remedies, execution slippage, deal pivot to cooperation-only.


1&1: Telefónica Circling Germany’s #4 Mobile—tight Float, Heavy Remedies, Real Synergies

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121


Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Asm International Nv / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are resuming their uptrends following several weeks of consolidation above major base supports (classic bull market behavior). Our outlook for global equities remains bullish.</li>
<li>Europe's EURO STOXX 50 has held above critical support at 4400-4415, and now displays a bull flag breakout following over a month of consolidation -- add exposure</li>
<li>We highlight many buy opportunities within global Technology, Services, and Communications</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are resuming their uptrends following several weeks of consolidation above major base supports (classic bull market behavior). Our outlook for global equities remains bullish.
Europe's EURO STOXX 50 has held above critical support at 4400-4415, and now displays a bull flag breakout following over a month of consolidation -- add exposure
We highlight many buy opportunities within global Technology, Services, and Communications


EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Technology, Services, & Comm

<ul>
<li>Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.</li>
<li>We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.</li>
</ul>


Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.
We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.
The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.


Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices in the September 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/software-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21717:1" rel="noopener">Software AG (SOW GR)</a> was deleted from the MDAX index triggering a couple of interim changes in the last week of July 2023.</li>
<li>Currently, I do not expect any changes for the DAX or MDAX indices in September 2023 but I expect one change for the SDAX index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices in the September 2023 Rebalance.

Software AG (SOW GR) was deleted from the MDAX index triggering a couple of interim changes in the last week of July 2023.
Currently, I do not expect any changes for the DAX or MDAX indices in September 2023 but I expect one change for the SDAX index.


Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Sep 23: No More Catalyst for the Short Sartorius - LONG Merck Trade

Germany

United Internet AG operates as an internet services company. The Company provides landline and mobile internet access products, as well as cloud applications at data centers with fixed monthly fees and volume-based charges. United Internet serves consumers and business clients worldwide.

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United Internet (UTDI GR)

1&1: Telefónica Circling Germany’s #4 Mobile—tight Float, Heavy Remedies, Real Synergies

Telefónica may bid for 1&1. Tight float, scarce borrow. Synergy-backed takeout €26–€30/sh (sweet spot €28–€29). PFV €23.83; Phase-II 9–12m implies...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Technology, Services, & Comm

EURO $STOXX 50, MSCI $ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Actionable Themes: Global Technology, Services, and Communications $ASML $ASMIY...

Vermilion Research

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

We're constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI is above $93 support, however, the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX is breaking above 4.35%...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Sep 23: No More Catalyst for the Short Sartorius - LONG Merck Trade

I do not expect Sartorius to get deleted from DAX in Sep 23. Despite the fundamentals still supporting the Short Sartorius - LONG Merck trade, I do...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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