Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Given UMC's partnership with Intel to produce chips using Intel's 12nm fab capacity, we believe latest Intel developments increase the opportunity for Intel Foundry to take a stake in UMC.</li>
<li>Intel's Foundry business makes a strong partner for UMC who has deep foundry experience and talent, but doesn't have leading edge fabs nor the balance sheet to build them.</li>
<li>If Intel Foundry Services spins out or Intel strengthens its balance sheet through a deal with Qualcomm/Apollo, the potential for a deeper UMC-Intel Foundry partnership becomes even more compelling.</li>
</ul>


Given UMC's partnership with Intel to produce chips using Intel's 12nm fab capacity, we believe latest Intel developments increase the opportunity for Intel Foundry to take a stake in UMC.
Intel's Foundry business makes a strong partner for UMC who has deep foundry experience and talent, but doesn't have leading edge fabs nor the balance sheet to build them.
If Intel Foundry Services spins out or Intel strengthens its balance sheet through a deal with Qualcomm/Apollo, the potential for a deeper UMC-Intel Foundry partnership becomes even more compelling.


United Microelectronics: Intel Foundry Should Take a Stake; Latest News Makes This More Likely

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalfoundries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34513:1" rel="noopener">GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)</a> saw positive reactions in their stocks following a possible merger news, despite the current instability in the stock markets.  </li>
<li>Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalfoundries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34513:1" rel="noopener">GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)</a>'s technology is held above 7nm, it is ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a>, which is still certain generations above China’s current technology in general.  </li>
<li>If these two companies wish to merge, there are still some subjective factors that need to be considered, and it will not be easy to get approval.  </li>
</ul>


Both United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) and GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US) saw positive reactions in their stocks following a possible merger news, despite the current instability in the stock markets.  
Although GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)'s technology is held above 7nm, it is ahead of United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US), which is still certain generations above China’s current technology in general.  
If these two companies wish to merge, there are still some subjective factors that need to be considered, and it will not be easy to get approval.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won't Be Easy to Happen.

<ul>
<li>The 1Q25 outlook is slightly affected by earthquakes, but production can resume in late 1Q25.</li>
<li>The UMC 12nm project could be in vain if Intel collaborates with TSMC or if TSMC takes over Intel's foundry service.   </li>
<li>UMC's annual revenue could see a -5% year-over-year growth in 2025, but there may be a few percentages increase in wafer shipments.  </li>
</ul>


The 1Q25 outlook is slightly affected by earthquakes, but production can resume in late 1Q25.
The UMC 12nm project could be in vain if Intel collaborates with TSMC or if TSMC takes over Intel's foundry service.   
UMC's annual revenue could see a -5% year-over-year growth in 2025, but there may be a few percentages increase in wafer shipments.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Results Could Be Upbeat, but 2Q25 Could Be a Bit Downside.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Semiconductor industry associations report re-accelerating Semi sales, and increase 2024-25 forecasts. This is due to higher AI / Accelerators, HBM Memory but the rest of the market remains sluggish</li>
<li>TSMC remains on its high growth plateau at 34% YoY, driven by AI and 3nm. UMC remains on a sluggish recovery at 7% YoY.</li>
<li>AMD, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC: stocks are not expensive on PE relative to earnings growth. Non-Consensus: we think AMD and SK Hynix are worth a serious look.</li>
</ul>


The Semiconductor industry associations report re-accelerating Semi sales, and increase 2024-25 forecasts. This is due to higher AI / Accelerators, HBM Memory but the rest of the market remains sluggish
TSMC remains on its high growth plateau at 34% YoY, driven by AI and 3nm. UMC remains on a sluggish recovery at 7% YoY.
AMD, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC: stocks are not expensive on PE relative to earnings growth. Non-Consensus: we think AMD and SK Hynix are worth a serious look.


Semiconductor Sales Reaccelerating, AI Accelerators Accelerating:  AMD, AVGO, NVDA, SK Hynix, TSMC

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)

United Microelectronics: Intel Foundry Should Take a Stake; Latest News Makes This More Likely

UMC's partnership with Intel could lead to Intel Foundry taking a stake in UMC due to Intel's latest developments and UMC's foundry experience.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won't Be Easy to Happen.

Stocks of UMC US and GFS US rise on possible merger news despite market instability. GFS ahead in technology but merger faces challenges.

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Results Could Be Upbeat, but 2Q25 Could Be a Bit Downside.

Earthquakes impact 1Q25 outlook can be resumed, UMC's 12nm project at risk with Intel-TSMC collaboration, UMC's revenue may decrease but wafer...

Patrick Liao

Semiconductor Sales Reaccelerating, AI Accelerators Accelerating: AMD, AVGO, NVDA, SK Hynix, TSMC

Semiconductor sales are re-accelerating due to AI Accelerators and related HBM memory. AMD and SK Hynix stocks are out of favor and worth...

Nicolas Baratte

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

United Microelectronics: Intel Foundry Should Take a Stake; Latest News Makes This More Likely

​UMC's partnership with Intel could lead to Intel Foundry taking a stake in UMC due to Intel's latest developments and UMC's foundry experience.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won't Be Easy to Happen.

​Stocks of UMC US and GFS US rise on possible merger news despite market instability. GFS ahead in technology but merger faces challenges.

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Results Could Be Upbeat, but 2Q25 Could Be a Bit Downside.

​Earthquakes impact 1Q25 outlook can be resumed, UMC's 12nm project at risk with Intel-TSMC collaboration, UMC's revenue may decrease but wafer...

Patrick Liao

Semiconductor Sales Reaccelerating, AI Accelerators Accelerating: AMD, AVGO, NVDA, SK Hynix, TSMC

​Semiconductor sales are re-accelerating due to AI Accelerators and related HBM memory. AMD and SK Hynix stocks are out of favor and worth...

Nicolas Baratte

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

UMC's partnership with Intel could lead to Intel Foundry taking a stake in UMC due to Intel's latest developments and UMC's foundry experience.

Stocks of UMC US and GFS US rise on possible merger news despite market instability. GFS ahead in technology but merger faces challenges.

Earthquakes impact 1Q25 outlook can be resumed, UMC's 12nm project at risk with Intel-TSMC collaboration, UMC's revenue may decrease but wafer...

Semiconductor sales are re-accelerating due to AI Accelerators and related HBM memory. AMD and SK Hynix stocks are out of favor and worth...